Poll Watch: University of Cincinnati Ohio 2012 Senatorial Survey

University of Cincinnati Ohio 2012 Senate Poll

• Sherrod Brown (D) 50.6% (49%) {51%} [52%] (48%)
• Josh Mandel (R) 46.8% (44%) {47%} [45%] (47%)
• Scott Rupert (I) 2.6% (4%)

Survey of 901 probable voters was conducted October 31 - November 4, 2012.  The margin of error is +/- 3.3 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted October 25-30, 2012 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted October 18-23, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 13-18, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 16-21, 2012 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Ohio 2012 Senatorial Survey

PPP (D) Ohio 2012 Senate Poll

• Sherrod Brown (D) 54% {53%} [49%] (49%) {49%} [48%] (47%) {46%} [45%] (47%) {49%} [48%] (48%) {48%} [48%]
• Josh Mandel (R) 44% {42%} [44%] (42%) {41%} [40%] (37%) {39%} [37%] (36%) {34%} [40%] (33%) {31%} [32%]

Among Independents

• Sherrod Brown (D) 52% {48%} [45%]
• Josh Mandel (R) 47% {44%} [43%]

Among Moderates

• Sherrod Brown (D) 67% {62} [59%]
• Josh Mandel (R) 30% {30%} [34%]

Among Men

• Sherrod Brown (D) 52% {50%} [43%]
• Josh Mandel (R) 47% {46%} [51%]

Among Women

• Sherrod Brown (D) 55% {55%} [54%]
• Josh Mandel (R) 40% {38%} [39%]

Have you already voted, either at an early voting site or with an absentee ballot?

• Yes 34% {36%} [21%] (19%)
• No 66% {64%} [79%] (81%)

Already Voted

• Sherrod Brown (D) 61% {63%} [66%] (71%)
• Josh Mandel (R) 37% {34%} [31%] (25%)

Did Not Vote Yet

• Sherrod Brown (D) 50% {47%} [45%] (44%) 
• Josh Mandel (R) 47% {46%} [48%] (46%)

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Josh Mandel 36% {38%} [38%] (37%) {33%} [33%] (26%) {24%} [25%] (14%) {14%} [12%] (14%) {15%} [13%] / 50% {51%} [50%] (50%) {48%} [44%] (42%) {39%} [30%] (25%) {19%} [21%] (20%) {18%} [12%] {-14%}

Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Sherrod Brown's job performance?

• Approve 48% {47%} [44%] (45%) {42%} [42%] (41%) {38%} [40%] (42%) {42%} [40%] (37%) {39%} [40%] (40%)
• Disapprove 43% {44%} [43%] (43%) {43%} [44%] (37%) {42%} [35%] (34%) {33%} [35%] (34%) {28%} [30%] (37%)

Survey of 1,000 likely Ohio voters was conducted November 3-4, 2012. The margin of error is +/-3.1 percentage points. Party ID: 43% {43%} [42%] (40%) {41%} [41%] (40%) {39%} [41%] (42%) {41%} [47%] (44%) {45%} [43%] (44%) Democrat; 35% {35%} [34%] (36%) {36%} [37%] (37%) {37%} [39%] (36%) {35%} [37%] (34%) {35%} [35%] (39%) Republican; 22% {21%} [23%] (24%)  {23%} [22%] (24%) {24%} [20%] (21%) {24%} [16%] (22%) {20%} [21%] (18%) Independent/Other. Political views: 29% {32%} [32%] (29%) {33%} [29%] (30%) {31%} [31%] (30%) {31%} [30%] (31%) {33%} [29%] Moderate; 23% {23%} [25%] (26%) {24%} [25%] (25%) {27%} [22%] (21%) {25%} [19%] (24%) {25%} [28%] Somewhat conservative; 18% {15%} [14%] (16%) {17%} [17%] (18%) {15%} [19%] (21%) {18%} [19%] (17%) {13%} [15%] Very conservative; 17% {19%} [16%] (16%) {16%} [17%] (18%) {17%} [18%] (18%) {20%} [21%] (19%) {16%} [19%] Somewhat liberal; 13% {12%} [13%] (13%) {11%} [11%] (10%) {9%} [9%] (10%) {7%} [10%] (8%) {13%} [7%] Very liberal.  Results from the poll conducted October 26-28, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted October 18-20, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted October 12-13, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted September 27-30, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 7-9, 2012 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted August 9-12, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted June 21-24, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 3-6, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 28-29, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted November 4-6, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted October 13-16, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 11-14, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted May 19-22, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 10-13, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 10-12, 2010 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Columbus Dispatch Ohio 2012 Senatorial Survey

Columbus Dispatch Ohio 2012 Senate Poll

• Sherrod Brown (D) 51% [49%] (44%)
• Josh Mandel (R) 45% [39%] (44%)

Mail poll of 1,501 likely voters was conducted October 24 - November 3, 2012.  The margin of error is +/- 2.2 percentage points. Party ID: 40% [43%] Democrat; 36% [35%] Republican; 21% [20%] Independent.  Results from the poll conducted September 19-29, 2012 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted August 15-25, 2012 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers: 

Brown is winning by 14 points among women, while Mandel is taking men by 2 points.

Poll Watch: Rasmussen (R) Ohio 2012 Senatorial Survey

Rasmussen (R) Ohio 2012 Senate Poll

• Josh Mandel (R) 48% {48%} [44%] (44%) {46%} [46%] (41%) {44%} [42%] (42%) {41%} [43%] (40%)
• Sherrod Brown (D) 48% {50%} [48%] (49%) {47%} [46%] (49%) {44%} [46%] (47%) {44%} [43%] (44%)
  
• Some other candidate 2% {1%} [2%] (1%) {2%} [2%] (3%) {3%} [4%] (3%) {3%} [3%] (4%)
• Undecided 2% {1%} [5%] (5%) {4%} [6%] (7%) {9%} [8%] (7%) {12%} [11%] (12%)

I’m going to read you a short list of people in the news. For each, please let me know you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable impression.

Sherrod Brown

• Very favorable 30% {25%} [29%] (30%) {27%} [25%] (26%)
• Somewhat favorable 17% {20%} [18%] (19%) {17%} [20%] (21%)
• Somewhat unfavorable 13% {14%} [12%] (17%) {16%} [17%] (15%)
• Very unfavorable 35% {35%} [31%] (27%) {30%} [31%] (26%)

Josh Mandel

• Very favorable 22% {21%} [22%] (17%) {21%} [23%] (17%)
• Somewhat favorable 24% {28%} [23%] (26%) {25%} [25%] (25%)
• Somewhat unfavorable 12% [17%} [12%] (14%) {13%} [17%] (13%)
• Very unfavorable 37% {31%} [34%] (35%) {33%} [28%] (31%)

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Sherrod Brown 47% {45%} [47%] (49%) {44%} [45%] (47%) / 48% {49%} [43%] (44%) {46%} [48%] (41%) {-1%} 
• Josh Mandel 46% {49%} [45%] (43%) {46%} [48%] (42%) / 49% {48%} [46%] (49%) {46%} [45%] (44%) {-3%} 

Survey of 750 likely voters was conducted November 1, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted October 28, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted October 23, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted October 17, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted October 10, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted October 4, 2012 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 12, 2012 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted August 13, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 18, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 29, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted April 18, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 26, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 8, 2012 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:

Forty percent (40%) of Ohio voters have already voted, and Brown leads 58% to 38% among this group.

Among the 96% of the state’s likely voters who say they are certain to vote in this election, Mandel leads by one – 48% to 47%.

Mandel leads by five among male voters but trails by five among female voters. Brown is ahead by six points among voters not affiliated with either of the major political parties.

Poll Watch: NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist Ohio 2012 Senatorial Survey

NBC/WSJ/Marist Ohio 2012 Senate Poll

• Sherrod Brown (D) 50% [52%] (50%) {49%}
• Josh Mandel (R) 45% [41%] (41%) {42%} 
• Other 1% [1%] (1%) {0%}
• Undecided 4% [6%] (7%) {9%}

Survey of 971 likely voters was conducted October 31 - November 1, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 3.1 percentage points.  Party ID: 38% [40%] (36%) {38%} Democrat; 29% [29%] (31%) {28%} Republican; 32% [29%] (32%) {32%} Independent.  Ideology: 34% [34%] (31%) {30%} Conservative; 32% [32%] (32%) {32%} Moderate; 18% [17%] (18%) {17%} Liberal; 11% [12%] (13%) {14%} Very conservative; 5% [5%] (6%) {7%} Very liberal.  Results from the poll conducted October 7-9, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 30 - October 1, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted September 9-11, 2012 are in curly brackets.

Poll Watch: Quinnipiac/New York Times/CBS News Ohio 2012 Senatorial Survey

Quinnipiac/NY Times/CBS News Ohio 2012 Senate Poll

• Sherrod Brown (D) 51% (51%) {50%} [48%] (51%)
• Josh Mandel (R) 42% (42%) {40%} [41%] (39%)

Among Independents

• Sherrod Brown (D) 46% (45%) {48%} [42%] (49%) 
• Josh Mandel (R) 44% (46%) {39%} [43%] (38%)

Among Men

• Josh Mandel (R) 51% (48%) {47%} [45%] (46%)
• Sherrod Brown (D) 44% (46%) {43%} [48%] (47%)

Among Women

• Sherrod Brown (D) 58% (56%) {56%} [49%] (55%)
• Josh Mandel (R) 34% (36%) {35%} [37%] (34%)

Survey of 1,110 likely voters was conducted October 23-28, 2012.  The margin of error is +/- 2.9 percentage points.  Party ID: 37% (35%) {35%} [34%] (35%) Democrat; 29% (26%) {26%} [26%] (27%) Republican; 30% (34%) {35%} [34%] (32%) Independent; 4% (4%) {4%} [6%] (5%) Other.  Results from the poll conducted October 17-20, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted September 18-24, 2012 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted August 15-21, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 24-30, 2012 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: University of Cincinnati Ohio 2012 Senatorial Survey

University of Cincinnati Ohio 2012 Senate Poll

• Sherrod Brown (D) 49% {51%} [52%] (48%)
• Josh Mandel (R) 44% {47%} [45%] (47%)
• Scott Rupert (I) 4%

Survey of 1,182 likely voters was conducted October 25-30, 2012.  The margin of error is +/- 2.9 percentage points.  Party ID: 43.5% {47%} [48%] Democrat; 41.6% {44%} [42%] Republican; 10.7% {10%} [10%] Independent.  Results from the poll conducted October 18-23, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 13-18, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 16-21, 2012 are in parentheses

Poll Watch: Rasmussen (R) Ohio 2012 Senatorial Survey

Rasmussen (R) Ohio 2012 Senate Poll

• Sherrod Brown (D) 50% [48%] (49%) {47%} [46%] (49%) {44%} [46%] (47%) {44%} [43%] (44%)
  
• Josh Mandel (R) 48% [44%] (44%) {46%} [46%] (41%) {44%} [42%] (42%) {41%} [43%] (40%)
• Some other candidate 1% [2%] (1%) {2%} [2%] (3%) {3%} [4%] (3%) {3%} [3%] (4%)
• Undecided 1% [5%] (5%) {4%} [6%] (7%) {9%} [8%] (7%) {12%} [11%] (12%)

Among Independents

• Sherrod Brown (D) 52% [43%] (49%) {45%} [38%] (49%)
• Josh Mandel (R) 42% [37%] (41%) {43%} [49%] (38%) 

I’m going to read you a short list of people in the news. For each, please let me know you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable impression.

Josh Mandel

• Very favorable 21% [22%] (17%) {21%} [23%] (17%)
• Somewhat favorable 28% [23%] (26%) {25%} [25%] (25%)
• Somewhat unfavorable 17% [12%] (14%) {13%} [17%] (13%)
• Very unfavorable 31% [34%] (35%) {33%} [28%] (31%)

Sherrod Brown

• Very favorable 25% [29%] (30%) {27%} [25%] (26%)
• Somewhat favorable 20% [18%] (19%) {17%} [20%] (21%)
• Somewhat unfavorable 14% [12%] (17%) {16%} [17%] (15%)
• Very unfavorable 35% [31%] (27%) {30%} [31%] (26%)

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Josh Mandel 49% [45%] (43%) {46%} [48%] (42%) / 48% [46%] (49%) {46%} [45%] (44%) {+1%} 
• Sherrod Brown 45% [47%] (49%) {44%} [45%] (47%) / 49% [43%] (44%) {46%} [48%] (41%) {-4%}

Survey of 750 likely voters was conducted October 28, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted October 23, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted October 17, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted October 10, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted October 4, 2012 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 12, 2012 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted August 13, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 18, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 29, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted April 18, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 26, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 8, 2012 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:

Thirty-two percent (32%) of Ohio voters say they have already voted, and Brown leads 62% to 36% among this group.

Mandel leads by 11 points among male voters in the state but trails by 13 among female voters. Most under 40 favor the incumbent, while the majority of older voters prefers the GOP challenger.

Poll Watch: SurveyUSA Ohio 2012 Senatorial Survey

SurveyUSA Ohio 2012 Senate Poll

• Sherrod Brown (D) 46% {43%} [43%] (42%)
• Josh Mandel (R) 41% {42%} [38%] (38%)
• Scott Rupert (I) 3% {3%} [4%] (4%)
• Undecided 9% {10%} [13%] (14%)

Among Independents

• Josh Mandel (R) 43% {46%} [37%] (39%)
• Sherrod Brown (D) 34% {33%} [34%] (32%)
• Scott Rupert (I) 7% {6%} [10%] (9%)
• Undecided 13% {14%} [19%] (17%)

Among Moderates

• Sherrod Brown (D) 53% {54%} [52%] (53%)
• Josh Mandel (R) 31% {30%} [28%] (25%)
• Scott Rupert (I) 4% {4%} [5%] (5%)
• Undecided 11% {11%} [14%] (15%)

Among Men

• Josh Mandel (R) 45% {47%} [42%] (41%)
• Sherrod Brown (D) 43% {41%} [40%] (41%)
• Scott Rupert (I) 4% {2%} [5%] (4%)
• Undecided 8% {8%} [13%] (13%)

Among Women

• Sherrod Brown (D) 50% {45%} [45%] (44%)
• Josh Mandel (R) 37% {37%} [35%] (34%)
• Scott Rupert (I) 2% {5%} [4%] (4%)
• Undecided 10% {12%} [14%] (15%)

Already Voted (25%)

• Sherrod Brown (D) 60% {54%} [52%] (57%)
• Josh Mandel (R) 35% {35%} [38%] (37%)
• Scott Rupert (I) 2% {4%} [4%] (0%)
• Undecided 1% {4%} [3%] (2%)

Will Vote Before Election Day (14%)

• Sherrod Brown (D) 47%
• Josh Mandel (R) 31%
• Scott Rupert (I) 4%
• Undecided 18%

Will Vote on Election Day (60%)

• Josh Mandel (R) 46% 
• Sherrod Brown (D) 41%
• Scott Rupert (I) 3%
• Undecided 10%

Survey of 603 likely and actual voters was conducted October 26-29, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 4.1 percentage points.  Party ID: 38% {39%} [39%] (39%) Democrat; 32% {32%} [32%] (33%) Republican; 26% {25%} [26%] (25%) Independent.  Ideology: 41% {38%} [42%] (40%) Moderate; 32% {34%} [34%] (35%) Conservative; 17% {18%} [17%] (16%) Liberal.  Results from the poll conducted October 20-22, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted October 12-15, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted October 5-8, 2012 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: University of Cincinnati Ohio 2012 Senatorial Survey

University of Cincinnati Ohio 2012 Senate Poll

• Sherrod Brown (D) 51% [52%] (48%)
• Josh Mandel (R) 47% [45%] (47%)

Survey of 1,015 likely voters was conducted October 18-23, 2012.  The margin of error is +/- 3.1 percentage points.  Party ID: 47% [48%] Democrat; 44% [42%] Republican; 10% [10%] Independent.  Results from the poll conducted September 13-18, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 16-21, 2012 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers: 

Women favor Brown by 16 percentage points, while men favor Mandel by 9 points.

More than half of independents, 54 percent, said they were supporting Brown, compared with 38 percent for Mandel.

Poll Watch: Gravis Marketing (R) Ohio 2012 Senatorial Survey

Gravis Marketing (R) Ohio 2012 Senate Poll

• Sherrod Brown (D) 48% (43.9%) {47.46%} [43.5%] (43.6%)
• Josh Mandel (R) 47% (43.0%) {41.82%} [44.3%] (41.4%)
• Undecided 5% (13.1%) {10.73%} [12.2%] (15.06%)

Among Men

• Josh Mandel (R) 52%
• Sherrod Brown (D) 45%
• Undecided 3%

Among Women

• Sherrod Brown (D) 51%
• Josh Mandel (R) 43%
• Undecided 6%

Already Voted (20%)

• Sherrod Brown (D) 61%
• Josh Mandel (R) 35%
• Undecided 4%

Did Not Vote Yet (80%)

• Josh Mandel (R) 50%
• Sherrod Brown (D) 45%
• Undecided 5%

Survey of 730 likely voters was conducted October 27, 2012.  The margin of error is +/- 3.6 percentage points.  Party ID: 40% (41.4%) Democrat; 32% (31.1%) Republican; 28% (27.5%) Independent/Other.  Gender: 47% Male; 53% Female. Results from the poll conducted September 21-22, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted September 7-8, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 2, 2012 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted August 27, 2012 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Ohio 2012 Senatorial Survey

PPP (D) Ohio 2012 Senate Poll

• Sherrod Brown (D) 53% [49%] (49%) {49%} [48%] (47%) {46%} [45%] (47%) {49%} [48%] (48%) {48%} [48%]
• Josh Mandel (R) 42% [44%] (42%) {41%} [40%] (37%) {39%} [37%] (36%) {34%} [40%] (33%) {31%} [32%]

Among Independents

• Sherrod Brown (D) 48% [45%]
• Josh Mandel (R) 44% [43%]

Among Moderates

• Sherrod Brown (D) 62% [59%]
• Josh Mandel (R) 30% [34%]

Among Men

• Sherrod Brown (D) 50% [43%]
• Josh Mandel (R) 46% [51%]

Among Women

• Sherrod Brown (D) 55% [54%]
• Josh Mandel (R) 38% [39%]

Have you already voted, either at an early voting site or with an absentee ballot?

• Yes 36% [21%] (19%)
• No 64% [79%] (81%)

Already Voted

• Sherrod Brown (D) 63% [66%] (71%)
• Josh Mandel (R) 34% [31%] (25%)

Did Not Vote Yet

• Sherrod Brown (D) 47% [45%] (44%) 
• Josh Mandel (R) 46% [48%] (46%)

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Josh Mandel 38% [38%] (37%) {33%} [33%] (26%) {24%} [25%] (14%) {14%} [12%] (14%) {15%} [13%] / 51% [50%] (50%) {48%} [44%] (42%) {39%} [30%] (25%) {19%} [21%] (20%) {18%} [12%] {-13%}

Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Sherrod Brown's job performance?

• Approve 47% [44%] (45%) {42%} [42%] (41%) {38%} [40%] (42%) {42%} [40%] (37%) {39%} [40%] (40%)
• Disapprove 44% [43%] (43%) {43%} [44%] (37%) {42%} [35%] (34%) {33%} [35%] (34%) {28%} [30%] (37%)

Survey of 718 likely Ohio voters was conducted October 26-28, 2012. The margin of error is +/-3.7 percentage points. Party ID: 43% [42%] (40%) {41%} [41%] (40%) {39%} [41%] (42%) {41%} [47%] (44%) {45%} [43%] (44%) Democrat; 35% [34%] (36%) {36%} [37%] (37%) {37%} [39%] (36%) {35%} [37%] (34%) {35%} [35%] (39%) Republican; 21% [23%] (24%)  {23%} [22%] (24%) {24%} [20%] (21%) {24%} [16%] (22%) {20%} [21%] (18%) Independent/Other. Political views: 32% [32%] (29%) {33%} [29%] (30%) {31%} [31%] (30%) {31%} [30%] (31%) {33%} [29%] Moderate; 23% [25%] (26%) {24%} [25%] (25%) {27%} [22%] (21%) {25%} [19%] (24%) {25%} [28%] Somewhat conservative; 19% [16%] (16%) {16%} [17%] (18%) {17%} [18%] (18%) {20%} [21%] (19%) {16%} [19%] Somewhat liberal; 15% [14%] (16%) {17%} [17%] (18%) {15%} [19%] (21%) {18%} [19%] (17%) {13%} [15%] Very conservative; 12% [13%] (13%) {11%} [11%] (10%) {9%} [9%] (10%) {7%} [10%] (8%) {13%} [7%] Very liberal.  Results from the poll conducted October 18-20, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted October 12-13, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted September 27-30, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 7-9, 2012 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted August 9-12, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted June 21-24, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 3-6, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 28-29, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted November 4-6, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted October 13-16, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 11-14, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted May 19-22, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 10-13, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 10-12, 2010 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Rasmussen (R) Ohio 2012 Senatorial Survey

Rasmussen (R) Ohio 2012 Senate Poll

• Sherrod Brown (D) 48% (49%) {47%} [46%] (49%) {44%} [46%] (47%) {44%} [43%] (44%)
  
• Josh Mandel (R) 44% (44%) {46%} [46%] (41%) {44%} [42%] (42%) {41%} [43%] (40%)
• Some other candidate 2% (1%) {2%} [2%] (3%) {3%} [4%] (3%) {3%} [3%] (4%)
• Undecided 5% (5%) {4%} [6%] (7%) {9%} [8%] (7%) {12%} [11%] (12%)

Among Independents

• Sherrod Brown (D) 43% (49%) {45%} [38%] (49%)
• Josh Mandel (R) 37% (41%) {43%} [49%] (38%) 

I’m going to read you a short list of people in the news. For each, please let me know you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable impression.

Sherrod Brown

• Very favorable 29% (30%) {27%} [25%] (26%)
• Somewhat favorable 18% (19%) {17%} [20%] (21%)
• Somewhat unfavorable 12% (17%) {16%} [17%] (15%)
• Very unfavorable 31% (27%) {30%} [31%] (26%)

Josh Mandel

• Very favorable 22% (17%) {21%} [23%] (17%)
• Somewhat favorable 23% (26%) {25%} [25%] (25%)
• Somewhat unfavorable 12% (14%) {13%} [17%] (13%)
• Very unfavorable 34% (35%) {33%} [28%] (31%)

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Sherrod Brown 47% (49%) {44%} [45%] (47%) / 43% (44%) {46%} [48%] (41%) {+4%}
• Josh Mandel 45% (43%) {46%} [48%] (42%) / 46% (49%) {46%} [45%] (44%) {-1%}

Survey of 750 likely voters was conducted October 23, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted October 17, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted October 10, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted October 4, 2012 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 12, 2012 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted August 13, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 18, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 29, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted April 18, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 26, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 8, 2012 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:

Thirty-one percent (31%) of Ohio voters say they have already cast a ballot in this year's election. Among those who've already voted, Brown holds a 52% to 41% lead over Mandel.

Eighty-nine percent (89%) have already made up their minds whom they will vote for. Brown is also ahead in this group, 51% to 47%.

Mandel holds a four-point slight advantage over Brown among men but trails by 10 among women. Senior citizens support Mandel, but those who are younger favor Brown.

Eighty-eight percent (88%) of the state's Republicans support Mandel, while Brown is backed by 94% of Democrats.

Poll Watch: SurveyUSA Ohio 2012 Senatorial Survey

SurveyUSA Ohio 2012 Senate Poll

• Sherrod Brown (D) 43% [43%] (42%)
• Josh Mandel (R) 42% [38%] (38%)
• Scott Rupert (I) 3% [4%] (4%)
• Undecided 10% [13%] (14%)

Among Independents

• Josh Mandel (R) 46% [37%] (39%)
• Sherrod Brown (D) 33% [34%] (32%)
• Scott Rupert (I) 6% [10%] (9%)
• Undecided 14% [19%] (17%)

Among Moderates

• Sherrod Brown (D) 54% [52%] (53%)
• Josh Mandel (R) 30% [28%] (25%)
• Scott Rupert (I) 4% [5%] (5%)
• Undecided 11% [14%] (15%)

Among Men

• Josh Mandel (R) 47% [42%] (41%)
• Sherrod Brown (D) 41% [40%] (41%)
• Scott Rupert (I) 2% [5%] (4%)
• Undecided 8% [13%] (13%)

Among Women

• Sherrod Brown (D) 45% [45%] (44%)
• Josh Mandel (R) 37% [35%] (34%)
• Scott Rupert (I) 5% [4%] (4%)
• Undecided 12% [14%] (15%)

Already Voted: 26%

• Sherrod Brown (D) 54% [52%] (57%)
• Josh Mandel (R) 35% [38%] (37%)
• Scott Rupert (I) 4% [4%] (0%)
• Undecided 4% [3%] (2%)

Did Not Vote Yet: 74%

• Josh Mandel (R) 44% [39%] (38%)
• Sherrod Brown (D) 39% [41%] (40%)
• Scott Rupert (I) 3% [4%] (4%)
• Undecided 12% [16%] (16%)

Survey of 609 likely and actual voters was conducted October 20-22, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 4.1 percentage points.  Party ID: 39% [39%] (39%) Democrat; 32% [32%] (33%) Republican; 25% [26%] (25%) Independent.  Ideology: 38% [42%] (40%) Moderate; 34% [34%] (35%) Conservative; 18% [17%] (16%) Liberal.  Already voted: 26% [18%] (11%) Yes; 74% [82%] (89%) No.  Results from the poll conducted October 12-15, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted October 5-8, 2012 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Suffolk University Ohio 2012 Senatorial Survey

Suffolk University Ohio 2012 Senate Poll

• Sherrod Brown (D) 46%
• Josh Mandel (R) 39%
• Scott Rupert (I) 6%
• Undecided 8%
  

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Sherrod Brown 40% / 41% {-1%}
• Josh Mandel 37% / 44% {-7%}
  

Survey of 600 likely voters was conducted October 18-21, 2012.  The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points.  Party ID: 39% Democrat; 35% Republican; 27% Independent.

Poll Watch: Quinnipiac/CBS News Ohio 2012 Senatorial Survey

Quinnipiac/CBS News Ohio 2012 Senate Poll

• Sherrod Brown (D) 51% {50%} [48%] (51%)
• Josh Mandel (R) 42% {40%} [41%] (39%)

Among Independents

• Josh Mandel (R) 46% {39%} [43%] (38%)
• Sherrod Brown (D) 45% {48%} [42%] (49%)

Among Men

• Josh Mandel (R) 48% {47%} [45%] (46%)
• Sherrod Brown (D) 46% {43%} [48%] (47%)

Among Women

• Sherrod Brown (D) 56% {56%} [49%] (55%)
• Josh Mandel (R) 36% {35%} [37%] (34%)

Already Voted

• Sherrod Brown (D) 57%
• Josh Mandel (R) 36%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Sherrod Brown 48% / 36% {+12%}
• Josh Mandel 34% / 42% {-8%}

Survey of 1,548 likely voters was conducted October 17-20, 2012.  The margin of error is +/- 2.5 percentage points.  Party ID: 35% {35%} [34%] (35%) Democrat; 26% {26%} [26%] (27%) Republican; 34% {35%} [34%] (32%) Independent; {4%} [6%] (5%) Other.  Results from the poll conducted September 18-24, 2012 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted August 15-21, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 24-30, 2012 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Ohio 2012 Senatorial Survey

PPP (D) Ohio 2012 Senate Poll

• Sherrod Brown (D) 49% (49%) {49%} [48%] (47%) {46%} [45%] (47%) {49%} [48%] (48%) {48%} [48%]
• Josh Mandel (R) 44% (42%) {41%} [40%] (37%) {39%} [37%] (36%) {34%} [40%] (33%) {31%} [32%]

Among Independents

• Sherrod Brown (D) 45%
• Josh Mandel (R) 43%

Among Moderates

• Sherrod Brown (D) 59%
• Josh Mandel (R) 34%

Among Men

• Josh Mandel (R) 51%
• Sherrod Brown (D) 43%

Among Women

• Sherrod Brown (D) 54%
• Josh Mandel (R) 39%

Have you already voted, either at an early voting site or with an absentee ballot?

• Yes 21% (19%)
• No 79% (81%)

Already Voted

• Sherrod Brown (D) 66% (71%)
• Josh Mandel (R) 31% (25%)

Did Not Vote Yet

• Josh Mandel (R) 48% (46%)
• Sherrod Brown (D) 45% (44%)

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Josh Mandel 38% (37%) {33%} [33%] (26%) {24%} [25%] (14%) {14%} [12%] (14%) {15%} [13%] / 50% (50%) {48%} [44%] (42%) {39%} [30%] (25%) {19%} [21%] (20%) {18%} [12%] {-12%}

Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Sherrod Brown's job performance?

• Approve 44% (45%) {42%} [42%] (41%) {38%} [40%] (42%) {42%} [40%] (37%) {39%} [40%] (40%)
• Disapprove 43% (43%) {43%} [44%] (37%) {42%} [35%] (34%) {33%} [35%] (34%) {28%} [30%] (37%)

Survey of 532 likely Ohio voters was conducted October 18-20, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 4.3 percentage points. Party ID: 42% (40%) {41%} [41%] (40%) {39%} [41%] (42%) {41%} [47%] (44%) {45%} [43%] (44%) Democrat; 34% (36%) {36%} [37%] (37%) {37%} [39%] (36%) {35%} [37%] (34%) {35%} [35%] (39%) Republican; 23% (24%)  {23%} [22%] (24%) {24%} [20%] (21%) {24%} [16%] (22%) {20%} [21%] (18%) Independent/Other. Political views: 32% (29%) {33%} [29%] (30%) {31%} [31%] (30%) {31%} [30%] (31%) {33%} [29%] Moderate; 25% (26%) {24%} [25%] (25%) {27%} [22%] (21%) {25%} [19%] (24%) {25%} [28%] Somewhat conservative; 16% (16%) {16%} [17%] (18%) {17%} [18%] (18%) {20%} [21%] (19%) {16%} [19%] Somewhat liberal; 14% (16%) {17%} [17%] (18%) {15%} [19%] (21%) {18%} [19%] (17%) {13%} [15%] Very conservative; 13% (13%) {11%} [11%] (10%) {9%} [9%] (10%) {7%} [10%] (8%) {13%} [7%] Very liberal.  Results from the poll conducted October 12-13, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted September 27-30, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 7-9, 2012 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted August 9-12, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted June 21-24, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 3-6, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 28-29, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted November 4-6, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted October 13-16, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 11-14, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted May 19-22, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 10-13, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 10-12, 2010 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Rasmussen (R) Ohio 2012 Senatorial Survey

Rasmussen (R) Ohio 2012 Senate Poll

• Sherrod Brown (D) 49% {47%} [46%] (49%) {44%} [46%] (47%) {44%} [43%] (44%)
  
• Josh Mandel (R) 44% {46%} [46%] (41%) {44%} [42%] (42%) {41%} [43%] (40%)
• Some other candidate 1% {2%} [2%] (3%) {3%} [4%] (3%) {3%} [3%] (4%)
• Undecided 5% {4%} [6%] (7%) {9%} [8%] (7%) {12%} [11%] (12%)

Among Independents

• Sherrod Brown (D) 49% {45%} [38%] (49%)
• Josh Mandel (R) 41% {43%} [49%] (38%) 

I’m going to read you a short list of people in the news. For each, please let me know you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable impression.

Sherrod Brown

• Very favorable 30% {27%} [25%] (26%)
• Somewhat favorable 19% {17%} [20%] (21%)
• Somewhat unfavorable 17% {16%} [17%] (15%)
• Very unfavorable 27% {30%} [31%] (26%)

Josh Mandel

• Very favorable 17% {21%} [23%] (17%)
• Somewhat favorable 26% {25%} [25%] (25%)
• Somewhat unfavorable 14% {13%} [17%] (13%)
• Very unfavorable 35% {33%} [28%] (31%)

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Sherrod Brown 49% {44%} [45%] (47%) / 44% {46%} [48%] (41%) {+5%}
• Josh Mandel 43% {46%} [48%] (42%) / 49% {46%} [45%] (44%) {-6%}

Survey of 750 likely voters was conducted October 17, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted October 10, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted October 4, 2012 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 12, 2012 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted August 13, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 18, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 29, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted April 18, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 26, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 8, 2012 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:

Voting in Ohio started on October 2, and Brown leads by nearly two-to-one among those who say they have cast their ballots already.

Eighty percent (80%) of all voters in the state say they are certain of their choice at this time. Among these voters, Brown leads Mandel 53% to 46%. Among the 94% of voters who say they are certain to vote in the election, Brown is ahead 50% to 45%.

Brown draws support from 89% of Democrats in the state, while Mandel is backed by 84% of voters in his party. 

Poll Watch: SurveyUSA Ohio 2012 Senatorial Survey

SurveyUSA Ohio 2012 Senate Poll

• Sherrod Brown (D) 43% (42%)
• Josh Mandel (R) 38% (38%)
• Scott Rupert (I) 4% (4%)
• Undecided 13% (14%)

Among Independents

• Josh Mandel (R) 37% (39%)
• Sherrod Brown (D) 34% (32%)
• Scott Rupert (I) 10% (9%)
• Undecided 19% (17%)

Among Moderates

• Sherrod Brown (D) 52% (53%)
• Josh Mandel (R) 28% (25%)
• Scott Rupert (I) 5% (5%)
• Undecided 14% (15%)

Among Men

• Josh Mandel (R) 42% (41%)
• Sherrod Brown (D) 40% (41%)
• Scott Rupert (I) 5% (4%)
• Undecided 13% (13%)

Among Women

• Sherrod Brown (D) 45% (44%)
• Josh Mandel (R) 35% (34%)
• Scott Rupert (I) 4% (4%)
• Undecided 14% (15%)

Already Voted (18%)

• Sherrod Brown (D) 52% (57%)
• Josh Mandel (R) 38% (37%)
• Scott Rupert (I) 4% (0%)
• Undecided 3% (2%)

Did Not Vote Yet (82%)

• Sherrod Brown (D) 41% (40%)
• Josh Mandel (R) 39% (38%)
• Scott Rupert (I) 4% (4%)
• Undecided 16% (16%)

Survey of 613 likely and actual voters was conducted October 12-15, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points.  Party ID: 39% (39%) Democrat; 32% (33%) Republican; 26% (25%) Independent.  Ideology: 42% (40%) Moderate; 34% (35%) Conservative; 17% (16%) Liberal.  Already voted: 18% (11%) Yes; 82% (89%) No.  Results from the poll conducted October 5-8, 2012 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Ohio 2012 Senatorial Survey

PPP (D) Ohio 2012 Senate Poll

• Sherrod Brown (D) 49% {49%} [48%] (47%) {46%} [45%] (47%) {49%} [48%] (48%) {48%} [48%]
• Josh Mandel (R) 42% {41%} [40%] (37%) {39%} [37%] (36%) {34%} [40%] (33%) {31%} [32%]

Have you already voted, either at an early voting site or with an absentee ballot?

• Yes 19%
• No 81%

Already Voted

• Sherrod Brown (D) 71%
• Josh Mandel (R) 25%

Did Not Vote Yet

• Josh Mandel (R) 46% 
• Sherrod Brown (D) 44%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Josh Mandel 37% {33%} [33%] (26%) {24%} [25%] (14%) {14%} [12%] (14%) {15%} [13%] / 50% {48%} [44%] (42%) {39%} [30%] (25%) {19%} [21%] (20%) {18%} [12%] {-13%}

Generally speaking, in 2014, do you think you would you vote for Republican Josh Mandel or his Democratic opponent for State Treasurer?

• Josh Mandel 39%
• Democratic opponent 40%

Do you think Josh Mandel is mature enough to be a US Senator, or not?

• He is 44%
• He is not 42%

Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Sherrod Brown's job performance?

• Approve 45% {42%} [42%] (41%) {38%} [40%] (42%) {42%} [40%] (37%) {39%} [40%] (40%)
• Disapprove 43% {43%} [44%] (37%) {42%} [35%] (34%) {33%} [35%] (34%) {28%} [30%] (37%)

Survey of 880 likely Ohio voters was conducted October 12-13, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 3.3 percentage points. Party ID: 40% {41%} [41%] (40%) {39%} [41%] (42%) {41%} [47%] (44%) {45%} [43%] (44%) Democrat; 36% {36%} [37%] (37%) {37%} [39%] (36%) {35%} [37%] (34%) {35%} [35%] (39%) Republican; 24%  {23%} [22%] (24%) {24%} [20%] (21%) {24%} [16%] (22%) {20%} [21%] (18%) Independent/Other. Political views: 29% {33%} [29%] (30%) {31%} [31%] (30%) {31%} [30%] (31%) {33%} [29%] Moderate; 26% {24%} [25%] (25%) {27%} [22%] (21%) {25%} [19%] (24%) {25%} [28%] Somewhat conservative; 16% {17%} [17%] (18%) {15%} [19%] (21%) {18%} [19%] (17%) {13%} [15%] Very conservative; 16% {16%} [17%] (18%) {17%} [18%] (18%) {20%} [21%] (19%) {16%} [19%] Somewhat liberal; 13% {11%} [11%] (10%) {9%} [9%] (10%) {7%} [10%] (8%) {13%} [7%] Very liberal.  Results from the poll conducted September 27-30, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 7-9, 2012 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted August 9-12, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted June 21-24, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 3-6, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 28-29, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted November 4-6, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted October 13-16, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 11-14, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted May 19-22, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 10-13, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 10-12, 2010 are in parentheses.