Poll Watch: MPR/Humphrey Institute Minnesota Gubernatorial Survey

MPR/Humphrey Institute Minnesota Gubernatorial Survey

• Mark Dayton (D) 38% [34%] {35%}
• Tom Emmer (R) 27% [34%] {31%} 
• Tom Horner (I) 16% [13%] {9%}
• Don't know 20% [19%] {14%}

Among Democrats

• Mark Dayton (D) 68%
• Tom Horner (I) 10%
• Tom Emmer (R) 2%
• Don't know 20%

Among Republicans

• Tom Emmer (R) 59%
• Tom Horner (I) 22%
• Mark Dayton (D) 6%
• Don't know 14%

Among Independents

• Tom Emmer (R) 26%
• Tom Horner (I) 21%
• Mark Dayton (D) 16%
• Don't know 38%

Survey of 750 likely voters was conducted September 22-26, 2010.  The margin of error is +/- 3.6 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted August 25-29, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 13-16, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Party ID breakdown: 48% Democrat; 38% Republican; 12% Independent.

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Illinois Senatorial Survey

PPP (D) Illinois Senatorial Survey

• Mark Kirk (R) 40% (35%) {30%} [37%] (34%)
• Alexi Giannoulias (D) 36% (37%) {31%} [33%] (42%)
• LeAlan Jones (G) 8% (9%) {14%}
• Mike Labno (L) 3%
• Undecided 13% (19%) {24%} [30%] (24%)

Among Men

• Mark Kirk (R) 44% (41%) {34%} [43%] (40%)
• Alexi Giannoulias (D) 31% (35%) {30%} [34%] (40%)
• LeAlan Jones (G) 11% (10%) {18%}
• Mike Labno (L) 3%
• Undecided 12% (15%) {17%} 

Among Women

• Alexi Giannoulias (D) 41% (40%) {32%} [32%] (43%)
• Mark Kirk (R) 36% (30%) {26%} [31%] (28%)
• LeAlan Jones (G) 6% (8%) {11%}
• Mike Labno (L) 3%
• Undecided 15% (22%) {31%} [37%] (29%)

Among Democrats

• Alexi Giannoulias (D) 68% (72%) {56%} [54%] (72%)
• Mark Kirk (R) 9% (5%) {10%} [10%] (7%)
• LeAlan Jones (G) 7% (8%) {15%}
• Mike Labno (L) 2%
• Undecided 15% (15%) {19%} [36%] (20%)

Among Republicans

• Mark Kirk (R) 79% (74%) {63%} [77%] (76%)
• LeAlan Jones (G) 6% (7%) {7%}
• Mike Labno (L) 2%
• Alexi Giannoulias (D) 2% (6%) {5%} [7%] (5%)
• Undecided 11% (12%) {25%} [16%] (19%)

Among Independents

• Mark Kirk (R) 41% (36%) {26%} [33%] (33%)
• Alexi Giannoulias (D) 27% (20%) {20%} [30%] (27%)
• LeAlan Jones (G) 13% (12%) {21%}
• Mike Labno (L) 5%
• Undecided 14% (32%) {32%} [37%] (40%)

Among Conservatives

• Mark Kirk (R) 70% (66%) {51%} [69%] (59%)
• Alexi Giannoulias (D) 6% (9%) {11%} [9%] (19%)
• LeAlan Jones (G) 4% (8%) {17%}
• Mike Labno (L) 4%
• Undecided 16% (17%) {21%} [22%] (21%)

Among Moderates

• Alexi Giannoulias (D) 43% (42%) {33%} [36%] (45%)
• Mark Kirk (R) 33% (25%) {27%} [23%] (25%)
• LeAlan Jones (G) 9% (11%) {14%}
• Mike Labno (L) 2%
• Undecided 13% (23%) {26%} [41%] (30%)

Among Liberals

• Alexi Giannoulias (D) 74% (78%) {56%} [71%] (68%)
• LeAlan Jones (G) 13% (8%) {12%}
• Mark Kirk (R) 2% (1%) {6%} [8%] (11%)
• Mike Labno (L) 2%
• Undecided 9% (13%) {26%} [22%] (21%)

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Mark Kirk 33% (26%) {23%} [24%] (27%) / 47% (34%) {31%} [23%] (22%) {-14%}
• Alexi Giannoulias 33% (26%) {23%} [21%] (31%) / 48% (42%) {31%} [28%] (19%) {-15%}

Do you approve or disapprove of Barack Obama’s job performance?

• Approve 44% (49%) {53%} [50%]
• Disapprove 49% (46%) {41%} [42%]

Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Roland Burris’ job performance?

• Approve 17% (20%) {19%} [18%] (14%)
• Disapprove 68% (55%) {54%} [54%] (60%)

Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Dick Durbin’s job performance?

• Approve 46% (50%) {49%} [45%] (47%)
• Disapprove 43% (38%) {36%} [34%] (39%)

Survey of 470 likely voters was conducted September 23-26, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points. Party ID breakdown: 42% (41%) {42%} [42%] (47%) Democrat; 32% (32%) {29%} [30%] (31%) Republican; 26% (26%) {29%} [28%] (23%) Independent/Other. Political ideology: 40% (39%) {43%} [44%] (38%) Moderate; 37% (38%) {34%} [36%] (36%) Conservative; 23% (22%) {23%} [20%] (26%) Liberal.  Results from the poll conducted August 14-15, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted June 12-13, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 1-5, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 22-25, 2010 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Rasmussen Colorado Senatorial Survey

Rasmussen Colorado Senatorial Survey

• Ken Buck (R) 49% [46%] (47%) {46%} [48%] (48%) {46%} [48%] (44%) {44%} [45%] (43%) {42%}
• Michael Bennet (D) 41% [43%] (44%) {41%} [42%] (39%) {41%} [41%] (40%) {38%} [41%] (38%) {38%}

With Leaners

• Ken Buck (R) 51% [49%] (49%)
• Michael Bennet (D) 43% [45%] (45%)
• Some other candidate 2% [3%] (3%)
• Not sure 4% [3%] (3%)

Among Voters Certain of Their Vote

• Ken Buck (R) 55% [52%] (50%)
• Michael Bennet (D) 45% [48%] (50%)

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Ken Buck 50% [49%] (50%) {52%} [49%] (48%) {44%} [43%] (42%) {40%} [43%] (38%) {36%} / 47% [44%] (44%) {37%} [43%] (34%) {32%} [33%] (22%) {23%} [26%] (20%) {26%} {+3%}
• Michael Bennet 44% [45%] (47%) {46%} [41%] (42%) {39%} [45%] (45%) {42%} [42%] (42%) {39%} [36%] (41%) / 53% [50%] (49%) {47%} [53%] (50%) {50%} [45%] (41%) {44%} [40%] (40%) {46%} [49%] (34%) {-9%}

How would you rate the job Bill Ritter has been doing as Governor?

• Strongly approve 19% [17%] (19%) {16%} [13%] (16%) {15%} [15%] (16%) {14%} [17%] (16%) <14%> {18%} [11%] (15%)
• Somewhat approve 26% [26%] (25%) {28%} [30%] (26%) {24%} [29%] (24%) {20%} [23%] (29%) <30%> {29%} [29%] (34%)
• Somewhat disapprove 18% [19%] (20%) {20%} [19%] (22%) {19%} [23%] (23%) {28%} [24%] (27%) <15%> {20%} [25%] (20%)
• Strongly disapprove 37% [36%] (34%) {34%} [36%] (35%) {43%} [32%] (34%) {35%} [32%] (28%) <37%> {31%} [32%] (29%)

How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President?

• Strongly approve 26% [28%] (29%) {29%} [29%] (29%) {29%} [31%] (29%) {26%} [33%] (32%) <32%> {31%} [35%] (35%)
• Somewhat approve 17% [16%] (17%) {18%} [13%] (12%) {14%} [14%] (13%) {17%} [12%] (15%) <13%> {19%} [13%] (16%)
• Somewhat disapprove 6% [7%] (6%) {6%} [8%] (7%) {7%} [7%] (10%) {10%} [8%] (9%) <7%> {6%} [8%] (7%)
• Strongly disapprove 49% [48%] (47%) {46%} [49%] (52%) {50%} [48%] (47%) {46%} [45%] (43%) <47%> {43%} [43%] (41%)

Survey of 750 likely voters was conducted September 27, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points.  Party ID breakdown: 37% Republican; 31% Democrat; 32% Independent.  Results from the poll conducted conducted September 14, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted conducted August 29, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted conducted August 11, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted conducted July 26, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted conducted July 8, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted conducted June 7, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted conducted May 3, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted conducted April 5, 2010 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted conducted March 2, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted conducted February 2, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 13, 2010 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted January 6, 2010 are in angle brackets. Results from the poll conducted December 8, 2009 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 15, 2009 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 9, 2009 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:

Eighty-three percent (83%) of Colorado Republicans support Buck, while 86% of the state’s Democrats line up behind Bennet. Voters not affiliated with either major party give a 19-point advantage to the Republican.

Sen. GOPers Admonish 'Counterproductive' Malcontent DeMint: STFU

Manu Raju of POLITICO reports:

South Carolina Sen. Jim DeMint last week accused his Senate Republican colleagues of doing “everything” in their power to help Alaska Sen. Lisa Murkowski’s write-in campaign against GOP nominee Joe Miller.

And he pounded them in a fundraising solicitation for doing “business as usual,” just as he “thought Republicans in Washington were beginning to get the message.”

Turns out Republicans got his message — they just didn’t like it.

A number of Republican senators told POLITICO Tuesday that DeMint was skewing the GOP conference’s position solidly backing Miller, saying he was intensifying a rift within a party that’s trying to unite following a divisive primary season. And Republican leaders say DeMint’s decision to lay out to his supporters the debate about Murkowski in the closed-door meeting was a clear breach of protocol where senators don’t discuss private sessions between colleagues with outsiders.

“I personally think it’s very counterproductive,” said retiring Sen. Kit Bond of Missouri, scoffing at what he and other GOP senators see as DeMint’s apparent attempts to build his national profile at the expense of his colleagues.

Asked whether DeMint’s message was helpful to the Republican Party, Texas Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison simply said: “No.”

Despite saying his party was united in the final stretch of the campaign season, DeMint’s attack against his colleagues was his second since the primary elections ended earlier this month. His first came after the Delaware Senate primary, when he wrote to supporters that the Washington GOP was “quietly rooting for Christine [O’Donnell] to lose so they can continue to peddle their discredited line that conservatives cannot win.”

DeMint now says he was “perhaps overly aggressive” with his colleagues in his latest fundraising e-mail about the Alaska Senate race, but he defends his decision to talk about the meeting publicly because he said much of the closed-door talk already had been reported by the “Hill rags.”

And he acknowledged in an interview that his tactics “could be” hurting his cause by burning bridges with his GOP colleagues whose support he would need to advance legislation.

DeMint isn’t exactly subtle in his latest fundraising pitch. The subject line reads: “Senate GOP Help the Alaska Party Switcher” —- in response to Senate Republicans’ decision not to demote Murkowski from a leadership position on a Senate committee.

“I would take issue with that,” said South Dakota Sen. John Thune, No. 4 in the GOP hierarchy. He said DeMint’s statements are “overstating what happened. I think the Republican leadership is very much doing everything they can to help the Republican nominee in Alaska.”

Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-Utah) called DeMint’s pitch a “mistaken idea,” saying there “isn’t one sitting Republican in the Senate that isn’t supporting Joe Miller.”

Bond, an appropriator who has sparred with DeMint, said the South Carolina senator’s characterization was “totally inaccurate” and noted that Republican senators are raising money for Miller this week during his Washington fundraising rounds.

Tennessee Sen. Lamar Alexander, the GOP conference chairman, said simply that DeMint’s fundraising e-mail “speaks for itself.” But he expressed concerns about the fact that DeMint publicly aired material from a closed-door meeting.

“Our strong tradition in the Republican Conference is to have a free and open exchange and to keep that among ourselves,” Alexander said. “I’m always disappointed when some member of our conference decides not to follow that tradition. It makes it hard for us to be a team.”

In the final weeks of the campaign, Democrats are eager to exploit the divisions between DeMint and the Republican leadership — and did so again Tuesday when DeMint announced that he would object to quick passage of any bill that he and his allies haven’t reviewed.

GOP leaders say DeMint has the right — as does any other senator — to object to passage of legislation by unanimous consent.

But they clearly are irked by the fallout of the Murkowski episode.

Republican leaders convened a special meeting last week to discuss whether to revoke Murkowksi’s position as ranking Republican on the Energy and Natural Resources Committee. GOP leaders entered the meeting, believing the caucus would vote to remove her from her position. But a number of Republicans, like Hutchison, said it made little sense to do so, given that she was likely to lose her reelection bid anyway and that there was sparse committee action in the docket.

DeMint and Louisiana Sen. David Vitter made a case for Murkowski to lose her spot on the committee, but most of their colleagues disagreed. Some later said Murkowski probably gained support because it was DeMint who was leading the charge against her.

Emerging from the meeting, DeMint repeatedly declined to tell reporters about what transpired at the meeting other than to say that the party was “united” behind Miller. A day later, he sent out the sharply worded fundraising letter, attacking his colleagues for aiding Murkowski’s bid.

DeMint said in the interview he was “distressed” by the conference’s position, and he said Miller “obviously was shaken” by the decision to keep Murkowski on the panel’s leadership, which Murkowski has since touted in her campaign.

“I know from experience that trying to work within the system for 12 years has not yielded results —and our country is worse off [than] where it was when I got here,” DeMint said Tuesday. “The party is not going to mind what I do as long as I’m not effective.”

Poll Watch: Quinnipiac Connecticut Gubernatorial Survey

Quinnipiac Connecticut Gubernatorial Survey

• Dan Malloy (D) 45% (50%) [46%] {44%}
• Tom Foley (R) 42% (41%) [31%] {33%}

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Dan Malloy 39% (46%) / 27% (21%) {+12%}
• Tom Foley 34% (34%) / 25% (24%) {+9%}

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Jodi Rell is handling her job as Governor?

• Approve 59% (58%)
• Disapprove 33% (35%)

Survey of 1,083 likely voters was conducted September 21-26, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted September 8-12, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted July 28 - August 2, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 7-13, 2010 are in curly brackets.

Poll Watch: Rasmussen Ohio Gubernatorial Survey

Rasmussen Ohio Gubernatorial Survey

• John Kasich (R) 49% [48%] (47%) {48%} [45%] (48%) {47%} [47%] (46%) {46%} [49%] (47%) {47%} [48%] (46%)
• Ted Strickland (D) 41% [40%] (39%) {40%} [42%] (43%) {40%} [42%] (45%) {45%} [38%] (41%) {40%} [39%] (45%)
• Other 4% [3%] (7%) {6%} [6%] (3%) {3%} [4%] (3%) {2%} [6%] (5%) {4%} [3%] (3%)
• Not sure 6% [8%] (7%) {7%} [7%] (5%) {10%} [8%] (6%) {7%} [7%] (8%) {8%} [11%] (7%)

With Leaners

• John Kasich (R) 50% [50%] (52%) {52%}
• Ted Strickland (D) 42% [43%] (40%) {42%}
• Other 3% [2%] (4%) {2%}
• Not sure 4% [5%] (4%) {4%}

Among Voters Certain of Their Vote

• John Kasich (R) 54% [55%] (55%) {56%}
• Ted Strickland (D) 46% [45%] (45%) {44%}

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• John Kasich 51% [50%] (48%) {51%} [47%] (49%) {44%} (51%) {46%} [48%] (47%) [45%] (47%) / 37% [37%] (37%) {33%} [34%] (31%) {32%} (27%) {29%} [29%] (30%) [24%] (25%) {+14%}
• Ted Strickland 46% [39%] (42%) {44%} [43%] (46%) {44%} (47%) {46%} [46%] (44%) [46%] (48%) / 52% [55%] (53%) {51%} [51%] (50%) {49%} (48%) {48%} [48%] (51%) [46%] (46%) {-6%}

How would you rate the job Ted Strickland has been doing as Governor?

• Strongly approve 19% [14%] (14%) {18%} [17%] (15%) {13%} [13%] (13%) {15%} [14%] (13%) {15%} [11%] (15%)
• Somewhat approve 22% [27%] (25%) {23%} [26%] (29%) {30%} [30%] (35%) {32%} [29%] (33%) {28%} [37%] (32%)
• Somewhat disapprove 18% [21%] (29%) {23%} [25%] (25%) {25%} [25%] (26%) {32%} [27%] (28%) {28%} [26%] (24%)
• Strongly disapprove 40% [36%] (30%) {33%} [29%] (30%) {30%} [30%] (23%) {20%} [26%] (25%) {26%} [24%] (26%)

Survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted September 27, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points. Party ID breakdown: 41% Democrat; 30% Republican; 29% Independent/Other.  Results from the poll conducted September 13, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 30, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted August 16, 2010 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted August 2, 2010 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted July 19, 2010 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted June 29, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted June 3, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted May 3, 2010 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted March 30, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 4, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 5-6, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted January 12, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 7, 2009 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 23, 2009 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:

Kasich earns 92% of the Republican vote in the state. Eighty percent (80%) of Ohio Democrats support Strickland. Among voters not affiliated with either major party, the GOP candidate leads by 33 points.

Poll Watch: Reuters/Ipsos Ohio Political Survey

Reuters/Ipsos Ohio Political Survey

Senatorial Election

• Rob Portman (R) 50% (43%)
• Lee Fisher (D) 37% (36%)

Gubernatorial Election

• John Kasich (R) 47% (48%)
• Ted Strickland (D) 46% (39%)

Survey of 440 likely voters was conducted September 23-25, 2010.  The margin of error is +/- 4.3 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted August 6-8, 2010 are in parentheses.

Fair & Balanced: Bill O'Reilly Does "The Daily Show"

The Daily Show With Jon Stewart	Mon - Thurs 11p / 10c
Bill O'Reilly
www.thedailyshow.com
Daily Show Full Episodes Political Humor Rally to Restore Sanity

Poll Watch: Washington Post Maryland Gubernatorial Survey

Washington Post Maryland Gubernatorial Survey

• Martin O'Malley (D) 52% (47%)
• Bob Ehrlich (R) 41% (47%)

Please tell me whether each of the following statements applies more to O'Malley or more to Ehrlich.

He is a strong leader   

• Martin O'Malley (D) 44% (34%)
• Bob Ehrlich (R) 36% (43%)

He has a vision for the state's future

• Martin O'Malley (D) 43% (36%)
• Bob Ehrlich (R) 34% (38%)

He is honest and trustworthy

• Martin O'Malley (D) 42% (31%)
• Bob Ehrlich (R) 30% (36%)

He understands the problems of people like you

• Martin O'Malley (D) 45% (39%)
• Bob Ehrlich (R) 35% (39%)

Which candidate, O'Malley or Ehrlich, do you trust to do a better job on each of these issues?

The state economy

• Martin O'Malley (D) 45% (38%)
• Bob Ehrlich (R) 41% (51%)

Taxes

• Bob Ehrlich (R) 42% (50%)
• Martin O'Malley (D) 42% (34%)

The state budget deficit

• Bob Ehrlich 43% (51%)
• Martin O'Malley 40% (38%)

Crime

• Martin O'Malley (D) 44% (39%)
• Bob Ehrlich (R) 37% (41%)

Working effectively with the state legislature

• Martin O'Malley (D) 52% (50%)
• Bob Ehrlich (R) 30% (30%)

Public education

• Martin O'Malley (D) 52% (47%)
• Bob Ehrlich (R) 31% (36%)

The environment

• Martin O'Malley (D) 53% (38%)
• Bob Ehrlich (R) 28% (51%)

Do you think Martin O'Malley's views on most issues are too liberal for you, too conservative, or just about right?

• Too liberal 30% (34%)
• Too conservative 7% (8%)
• About right 52% (45%)

Do you think Bob Ehrlich's views on most issues are too liberal for you, too conservative, or just about right?

• Too liberal 9% (6%)
• Too conservative 35% (31%)
• About right 42% (46%)

Survey of 730 likely voters was conducted September 22-26, 2010.  The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted May 3-6, 2010 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: CBS News/New York Times Ohio Political Survey

CBS News/New York Times Ohio Political Survey

Senatorial Election

• Rob Portman (R) 45%
• Lee Fisher (D) 34%

Gubernatorial Election

• John Kasich (R) 43%
• Ted Strickland (D) 42%

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ted Strickland is handling his job as Governor?

• Approve 38%
• Disapprove 49%

Do you think Ted Strickland does or does not have a clear plan for creating jobs in Ohio?

• Does 29%
• Does not 56%

Do you think John Kasich does or does not have a clear plan for creating jobs in Ohio?

• Does 23%
• Does not 41%

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?

• Approve 43%
• Disapprove 47%

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling the economy?

• Approve 38%
• Disapprove 55%

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling job creation?

• Approve 34%
• Disapprove 59%

Do you think Barack Obama does or does not have a clear plan for creating jobs?

• Approve 37%
• Disapprove 54%

Since he took office, has Barack Obama made real progress in fixing the economy or hasn’t he made real progress in fixing the economy?

• Made real progress 32%
• Hasn't made real progress 61%

In general which comes closest to your feelings about the Obama presidency so far --- Would you say you are very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat disappointed or very disappointed?

• Very satisfied 7%
• Somewhat satisfied 33%
• Somewhat disappointed 28%
• Very disappointed 30%

If the 2010 election for U.S. House of Representatives were being held today, would you vote for the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate in your district?

• Republican candidate 43%
• Democratic candidate 39%

Regardless of how you intend to vote, would you prefer that the Democrats keep control of the House of Representatives, that the Republicans win control of the House of Representatives, or does it not matter to you one way or the other?

• Prefer Republicans 35%
• Prefer Democrats 33%
• Doesn't matter 28%

Regardless of how you usually vote, do you think the Republican party or the Democratic party is more likely to create new jobs?

• Republican Party 41%
• Democratic Party 38%

From what you've heard or read, do you approve or disapprove of the health care law that was enacted last March?

• Approve 37%
• Disapprove 51%

From what you know so far, which comes closest to your own view? 1. the economic stimulus package has already created a substantial number of new jobs in Ohio OR 2. it will create a substantial number of new jobs but hasn't done that yet OR 3. it will not create a substantial number of new jobs?

• Has already created jobs 8%
• Will create jobs 38%
• Will never create new jobs 48%

Survey of 941 likely voters was conducted September 23-27, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points.

Poll Watch: NBC News/Wall Street Journal Political Survey

NBC News/Wall Street Journal Political Survey

In general, do you approve or disapprove of the job that Barack Obama is doing as president?

• Approve 46%
• Disapprove 49%

Do you generally approve or disapprove of the job that Barack Obama is doing in handling the economy?

• Approve 42%
• Disapprove 54%

Now I'm going to read you the names of several public figures, groups and organizations, and I'd like you to rate your feelings toward each one as very positive, somewhat positive, somewhat negative, or very negative.
Barack Obama

• Very positive 29%
• Somewhat positive 18%
• Somewhat negative 14%
• Very negative 27%

The Democratic Party

• Very positive 15%
• Somewhat positive 22%
• Somewhat negative 20%
• Very negative 22%

The Republican Party

• Very positive 8%
• Somewhat positive 23%
• Somewhat negative 21% 
• Very negative 22%

The Tea Party Movement

• Very positive 15%
• Somewhat positive 15%
• Somewhat negative 13%
• Very negative 23%

Mike Huckabee

• Very positive 11%
• Somewhat positive 15%
• Somewhat negative 15%
• Very negative 10%

Sarah Palin

• Very positive 14%
• Somewhat positive 16%
• Somewhat negative 15%
• Very negative 33%

Mitt Romney

• Very positive 6%
• Somewhat positive 15%
• Somewhat negative 20%
• Very negative 10%

Newt Gingrich

• Very positive 9%
• Somewhat positive 15%
• Somewhat negative 16%
• Very negative 19%

Bill Clinton

• Very positive 29%
• Somewhat positive 26% 
• Somewhat negative 13%
• Very negative 10%

Mitch McConnell

• Very positive 3%
• Somewhat positive 9%
• Somewhat negative 9%
• Very negative 9%

John Boehner

• Very positive 5%
• Somewhat positive 9%
• Somewhat negative 8%
• Very negative 9%

Harry Reid

• Very positive 3%
• Somewhat positive 12%
• Somewhat negative 12%
• Very negative 20%

Nancy Pelosi

• Very positive 7%
• Somewhat positive 15%
• Somewhat negative 14%
• Very negative 36%

Let me read you a number of potential things that might happen in the upcoming election. For each one, please tell me if this outcome would be acceptable or unacceptable to you.
The influence of special interests is reduced.

• Strongly acceptable 59%
• Not so strongly acceptable 11%
• Not so strongly unacceptable 6%
• Strongly unacceptable 8%

New people with few ties to the political process are elected.

• Strongly acceptable 41%
• Not so strongly acceptable 28%
• Not so strongly unacceptable 7%
• Strongly unacceptable 9%

The health care reform plan that was passed earlier this year is repealed.

• Strongly acceptable 40%
• Not so strongly acceptable 11%
• Not so strongly unacceptable 8%
• Strongly unacceptable 31%

The Democrats continue to hold the majority in Congress.

• Strongly acceptable 38%
• Not so strongly acceptable 13%
• Not so strongly unacceptable 9%
• Strongly unacceptable 33%

The Republicans take over the majority in Congress.

• Strongly acceptable 36%
• Not so strongly acceptable 16%
• Not so strongly unacceptable 10%
• Strongly unacceptable 29%

The Tea Party influences the Republican Party to become more conservative on fiscal issues.

• Strongly acceptable 33%
• Not so strongly acceptable 17%
• Not so strongly unacceptable 9%
• Strongly unacceptable 21%

Most Tea Party candidates are defeated and the Tea Party has a smaller influence on American politics.

• Strongly acceptable 32%
• Not so strongly acceptable 11%
• Not so strongly unacceptable 12%
• Strongly unacceptable 21%

The Tea Party becomes a major force in Congress

• Strongly acceptable 24%
• Not so strongly acceptable 14%
• Not so strongly unacceptable 9%
• Strongly unacceptable 32%

Democratic Congresswoman Nancy Pelosi continues as the Speaker of the House of Representatives.

• Strongly acceptable 20%
• Not so strongly acceptable 17%
• Not so strongly unacceptable 9%
• Strongly unacceptable 42%

Republican Congresswoman John Boehner becomes the Speaker of the House of Representatives.

• Strongly acceptable 17%
• Not so strongly acceptable 14%
• Not so strongly unacceptable 8%
• Strongly unacceptable 28%

Sarah Palin becomes the leading spokesperson for the Republican Party.

• Strongly acceptable 16%
• Not so strongly acceptable 14%
• Not so strongly unacceptable 12%
• Strongly unacceptable 43%

What is your preference for the outcome of this year’s congressional elections -- a Congress controlled by Republicans or a Congress controlled by Democrats?

• Republican-controlled Congress 44%
• Democrat-controlled Congress 44%

Do you consider yourself a supporter of the Tea Party movement?

• Yes 27%
• No 61%

Survey of 1,000 adults was conducted September 22-26, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 3.1 percentage points. Party ID breakdown: 35% Democrat; 26% Republican; 32% Independent. Political ideology: 37% Moderate; 21% Somewhat conservative; 18% Very conservative; 13% Somewhat liberal; 8% Very liberal.

Jack Conway for Senate TV Ad: "Rand's $2,000 Medicare Deductible"

Poll Watch: Rasmussen Ohio Senatorial Survey

Rasmussen Ohio Senatorial Survey

• Rob Portman (R) 49% [46%] (44%) {45%} [44%] (45%) {43%} [43%] (42%) {43%} [44%] (43%) {44%} [38%] (41%)
• Lee Fisher (D) 41% [39%] (39%) {37%} [40%] (39%) {39%} [43%] (43%) {38%} [39%] (39%) {37%} [36%] (40%)
• Other 2% [4%] (7%) {5%} [5%] (5%) {4%} [4%] (4%) {4%} [5%] (5%) {4%} [8%] (6%)
• Not Sure 8% [11%] (11%) {13%} [11%] (11%) {13%} [10%] (11%) {14%} [12%] (13%) {14%} [18%] (14%)

With Leaners

• Rob Portman (R) 51% [49%] (47%) {48%}
• Lee Fisher (D) 42% [41%] (41%) {39%}
• Other 1% [2%] (4%) {3%}
• Not Sure 6% [8%] (9%) {10%}

Among Voters Certain of Their Vote

• Rob Portman (R) 55% [58%] (53%) {52%}
• Lee Fisher (D) 45% [42%] (47%) {48%}

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Rob Portman 57% [52%] (49%) {51%} [46%] (47%) {48%} [49%] {45%} [45%] (45%) {49%} [48%] (45%) / 31% [27%] (28%) {23%} [27%] (26%) {22%} [23%] {26%} [27%] (24%) {25%} [21%] (23%) {+26%}
• Lee Fisher 45% [44%] (47%) {41%} [40%] (41%) {45%} [46%] {39%} [41%] (38%) {41%} [36%] (42%) / 45% [38%] (35%) {34%} [41%] (37%) {34%} [33%] {38%} [37%] (39%) {39%} [35%] (34%) {0%}

How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President?

• Strongly approve 35% [32%] (27%) {25%} [29%] (31%) {31%} [34%] (29%) {32%} [29%] (29%) {29%} [31%] (33%)
• Somewhat approve 13% [12%] (18%) {20%} [17%] (15%) {17%} [15%] (19%) {14%} [18%] (20%) {17%} [15%] (15%)
• Somewhat disapprove 7% [8%] (8%) {9%} [11%] (8%) {8%} [8%] (8%) {9%} [10%] (10%) {13%} [12%] (10%)
• Strongly disapprove 44% [46%] (46%) {45%} [42%] (46%) {44%} [42%] (43%) {44%} [42%] (41%) {41%} [41%] (40%)

Survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted September 27, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted September 13, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 30, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted August 16, 2010 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted August 2, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 19, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted June 29, 2010 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted June 3, 2010 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted May 5, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted March 30, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 4, 2010 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted February 5-6, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted January 12, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 7, 2009 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 23, 2009 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:

Portman is backed by 95% of Ohio Republicans, while Fisher draws support from 81% of the state's Democrats. Portman holds a 37-point advantage among voters not affiliated with either major political party.

PPP (D) 2012 West Virginia GOP Primary

PPP (D) 2012 West Virginia GOP Primary

• Mike Huckabee 27%
• Sarah Palin 24%
• Newt Gingrich 16%
• Mitt Romney 13%
• Ron Paul 6%
• Undecided 9%

Among Conservatives

• Mike Huckabee 27%
• Sarah Palin 24%
• Newt Gingrich 19%
• Mitt Romney 12%
• Ron Paul 7%
• Undecided 8%

Among Moderates

• Mike Huckabee 29%
• Sarah Palin 21%
• Mitt Romney 18%
• Newt Gingrich 10%
• Ron Paul 4%
• Undecided 10%

Among Men

• Mike Huckabee 25%
• Sarah Palin 22%
• Newt Gingrich 20%
• Mitt Romney 17%
• Ron Paul 7%
• Undecided 5%

Among Women

• Mike Huckabee 29%
• Sarah Palin 25%
• Newt Gingrich 13%
• Mitt Romney 10%
• Ron Paul 5%
• Undecided 13%

Survey of 553 Republican primary voters was conducted September 18-19, 2010. The margin of error is +/- percentage points. Political ideology: 70% Conservative; 27% Moderate; 3% Liberal.

Poll Watch: PPP (D) 2012 Michigan GOP Primary

PPP (D) 2012 Michigan GOP Primary 

• Mitt Romney 30% (37%)
• Sarah Palin 17% (24%)
• Newt Gingrich 16% (16%)
• Mike Huckabee 14% (12%)
• Ron Paul 8% (6%)
• Undecided 8% (4%)

Among Conservatives

• Mitt Romney 27% (32%)
• Newt Gingrich 19% (19%)
• Sarah Palin 19% (29%)
• Mike Huckabee 15% (13%)
• Ron Paul 9% (6%)
• Undecided 8% (2%) 

Among Moderates

• Mitt Romney 36% (56%)
• Sarah Palin 14% (8%) 
• Newt Gingrich 12% (11%)
• Mike Huckabee 11% (14%)
• Ron Paul 7% (8%)
• Undecided 8% (3%) 

Among Men

• Mitt Romney 29% (31%)
• Newt Gingrich 17% (24%)
• Sarah Palin 17% (26%)
• Mike Huckabee 16% (8%)
• Ron Paul 9% (9%)
• Undecided 7% (3%)

Among Women

• Mitt Romney 30% (45%)
• Sarah Palin 17% (22%)
• Newt Gingrich 15% (7%) 
• Mike Huckabee 13% (17%)
• Ron Paul 7% (3%)
• Undecided 10% (6%) 

Survey of 400 Republican primary voters was conducted September 17-19, 2010.  The margin of error is +/- 4.9 percentage points.  Party ID breakdown: 71% Republican; 28% Independent/Other; 2% Democrat.  Political ideology: 67% Conservative; 31% Moderate; 2% Liberal.  Results from the poll conducted May 25-27, 2010 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: PPP (D) California 2012 GOP Primary

PPP (D) California 2012 GOP Primary

• Mitt Romney 24% (25%)
• Newt Gingrich 21% (28%)
• Sarah Palin 18% (18%)
• Mike Huckabee 17% (13%)
• Ron Paul 6% (10%)
• Undecided 9% (6%)

Among Conservatives

• Newt Gingrich 24% (33%)
• Sarah Palin 21% (19%)
• Mitt Romney 20% (26%)
• Mike Huckabee 18% (12%)
• Ron Paul 4% (6%)
• Undecided 10% (4%)

Among Moderates

• Mitt Romney 36% (25%)
• Mike Huckabee 14% (16%)
• Newt Gingrich 13% (17%)
• Ron Paul 10% (19%)
• Sarah Palin 9% (14%)
• Undecided 7% (9%)

Among Men

• Mitt Romney 25% (25%)
• Newt Gingrich 20% (30%)
• Mike Huckabee 17% (9%)
• Sarah Palin 16% (21%)
• Ron Paul 7% (10%)
• Undecided 9% (6%)

Among Women

• Mitt Romney 24% (25%)
• Newt Gingrich 22% (26%)
• Sarah Palin 19% (15%)
• Mike Huckabee 18% (17%)
• Ron Paul 4% (10%)
• Undecided 10% (7%)

Survey of 400 California Republican primary voters was conducted September 14-16, 2010.  The margin of error is +/- 4.9 percentage points.  Political ideology: 69% Conservative; 30% Moderate; 1% Liberal.  Results from the poll conducted May 21-23, 2010 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: InsiderAdvantage Georgia Political Survey

InsiderAdvantage Georgia Political Survey

Gubernatorial Election

• Nathan Deal (R) 45% [42%] (45%)
• Roy Barnes (D) 37% [42%] (41%)
• John Monds (L) 5% [5%] (5%)
• No opinion 13% [11%] (9%)

Senatorial Election

• Johnny Isakson (R) 61% [52%] (47%)
• Michael Thurmond (D) 29% [34%] (35%)
• Chuck Donovan (L) 3% [5%] (7%)
• No opinion 7% [9%] (11%)

Survey of 412 likely voters was conducted September 27, 2010.  The margin of error is +/- 5 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted September 16, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 18, 2010 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Marist New York Senatorial Survey

Marist New York Senatorial Survey

• Kirsten Gillibrand (D) 52%
• Joe DioGuardi (R) 41%

• Charles Schumer (D) 58%
• Jay Townsend (R) 37%

Would you rate the job Senator Kirsten Gillibrand is doing in office as excellent, good, fair or poor?

• Excellent 4%
• Good 23%
• Fair 38%
• Poor 18%

Would you rate the job Senator Charles Schumer is doing in office as excellent, good, fair or poor?

• Excellent 15%
• Good 32%
• Fair 31%
• Poor 19%

Survey of 617 likely voters was conducted September 19-22, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points.

Poll Watch: Rasmussen Connecticut Gubernatorial Survey

Rasmussen Connecticut Gubernatorial Survey

• Dan Malloy (D) 50% {46%} [48%] (44%) {38%} [35%] (37%)
• Tom Foley (R) 40% {39%} [33%] (35%) {35%} [44%] (36%)

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Dan Malloy 55% {62%} [53%] (52%) {46%} [47%] (43%) / 34% {30%} [33%] (27%) {24%} [29%] (29%) {+21%}
• Tom Foley 53% {51%} [45%] (40%) {42%} [45%] (42%) / 35% {40%} [41%] (25%) {24%} [25%] (22%) {+18%}

Survey of 500 likely voters was conducted September 26, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted September 9, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 11, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted June 1, 2010 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted May 4, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 1, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 1, 2010 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:

Malloy is backed by 79% of Democrats, while Foley draws support from 78% of Republicans. Malloy leads Foley 49% to 36% among voters not affiliated with either major political party.

Poll Watch: Pulse/Rasmussen/Fox News Illinois Senatorial Survey

Pulse/Rasmussen/Fox News Illinois Senatorial Survey 

Senatorial Election

• Mark Kirk (R) 42%
• Alexi Giannoulias (D) 40%
• LeAlan Jones (G) 7%
• Other 2%
• Not sure 9%

Gubernatorial Election

• Bill Brady (R) 46%
• Pat Quinn (D) 36%
• Rich Whitney (G) 8%
• Other 1%
• Not sure 9%

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as president?

• Approve 46%
• Disapprove 46%

All in all, would you rather have bigger government that provides more services or smaller government that provides fewer services?

• Bigger government that provides more services 38%
• Smaller government that provides fewer services 50%

Have the policies of the Obama administration helped or hurt Washington’s economy, or have they not made much of a difference either way?

• Helped 30%
• Hurt 36%
• Not made much of a difference 28%

Thinking about the health care law that was passed earlier this year, would you favor repealing the new law to keep it from going into effect, or would you oppose repealing the new law?

• Favor repealing the health care law 45%
• Oppose repealing the health care law 45%

How do you feel about the Tea Party movement?

• Strongly support 24%
• Somewhat support 20%
• Somewhat oppose 10%
• Strongly oppose 31%

Survey of 1,000 likely voters was conducted September 25, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points.