Poll Watch: Portland Press Herald/Maine Sunday Telegram/Critical Insights Maine 2012 Senatorial Survey

Portland Press Herald/Maine Sunday Telegram/Critical Insights Maine 2012 Senate Poll

• Angus King (I) 50% {55%}
• Charlie Summers (R) 28% {27%}
  
• Cynthia Dill (D) 12% {7%}
• Other/Undecided 10% {10%}

Survey of 618 likely voters was conducted September 12-16, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted June 20-25, 2012 are in curly brackets.

Inside the numbers: 

Among Democrats, King's support dropped from 67 percent in June to 62 percent in September, while Dill's increased from 17 percent to 25 percent.

King's lead in September is still substantial, even with the variation in recent polls. He has especially strong support among women (52 percent), young voters (58 percent), college graduates (58 percent) and voters with household incomes over $100,000 a year (59 percent), according to the Critical Insights poll.

Summers' support, meanwhile, is strongest among men (34 percent) and middle-aged voters (34 percent), and he has the most support of any candidate among voters who have a high school diploma or did not complete high school (39 percent).

While King leads Summers overall, 50 percent to 28 percent, a larger portion of his support is in the "probably" or "leaning" categories.

Comparing only "definite" voters, King leads 32 percent to 22 percent.

Poll Watch: Rasmussen (R) Maine 2012 Senatorial Survey

Rasmussen (R) Maine 2012 Senate Poll

• Angus King (I) 45%
• Charlie Summers (R) 33%
  
• Cynthia Dill (D) 14%
• Some other candidate 1%
• Undecided 7%

Among Independents

• Angus King (I) 61%
• Charlie Summers (R) 26%
  
• Cynthia Dill (D) 6%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Angus King 56% / 38% {+18%}
• Charlie Summers 43% / 33% {+10%}
  
• Cynthia Dill 36% / 46% {-10%}

Survey of 500 likely voters was conducted September 25, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points.

Inside the numbers: 

King draws support from 53% of Maine Democrats, while Dill picks up the vote from just 29% of voters in her own party. Summers has the backing of 77% of Republicans in the state, but 15% of GOP voters prefer King instead.

King leads Summers and Dill among both male and female voters. Summers and King are tied among voters 65 and older, but King is ahead in all other age groups.

Poll Watch: Portland Press Herald/Critical Insights Maine 2012 Senatorial Survey

Portland Press Herald/Critical Insights Maine 2012 Senate Poll

• Angus King (I) 55%
• Charlie Summers (R) 27%
  
• Cynthia Dill (D) 7%
• Other 1%
• Unsure/Don't know 9%

Survey of 615 registered voters was conducted June 20-25, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points.

Poll Watch: WBUR/MassINC Maine 2012 Senatorial Survey

WBUR/MassINC Maine 2012 Senatorial Poll

• Angus King (I) 50%
• Charlie Summers (R) 23%
• Cynthia Dill (D) 9%
• Another candidate 1%
• Don't know/Undecided 17%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Angus King 60% / 21% {+39%}
• Charlie Summers 27% / 15% {+12%}
• Cynthia Dill 14% / 15% {-1%}

Survey of 506 likely voters was conducted June 13-14, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 4.4 percentage points.  Party registration: 33% Democrat; 31% Republican; 34% Independent; 1% Green.  Click here to view crosstabs.

Poll Watch: Maine People's Resource Center 2012 Senatorial Survey

MPRC Maine 2012 Senate Poll

• Angus King (I) 56.0%
• Charlie Summers (R) 21.8%
• Matt Dunlap (D) 12.2%
• Undecided 9.9%

Among Democrats

• Angus King (I) 61.4%
• Matt Dunlap (D) 24.3%
• Charlie Summers (R) 4.1%
• Undecided 10.2%

Among Republicans

• Charlie Summers (R) 51.9%
• Angus King (I) 37.5%
• Matt Dunlap (D) 2.1%
• Undecided 8.6%

Among Independents

• Angus King (I) 66.7%
• Charlie Summers (R) 16.0%
• Matt Dunlap (D) 6.4%
• Undecided 10.9%

Survey of 993 likely voters was conducted March 31 - April 2, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 3.11 percentage points. Party ID: 39.3% Democrat; 29.3% Republican; 31.4% Independent/Other. Ideology: 27.0% Moderate; 23.6% Somewhat liberal; 20.3% Somewhat conservative; 13.5% Very conservative; 12.6% Very liberal.