Poll Watch: CBS News/New York Times/YouGov Oregon 2014 Gubernatorial Survey

CBS News/New York Times/YouGov Oregon 2014 Gubernatorial Poll

• John Kitzhaber (D) 48% {49%} [48%] (52%)
• Dennis Richardson (R) 42% {42%} [42%] (42%)

Survey of 1,421 likely voters was conducted October 16-23, 2014.  The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted September 20 - October 1, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted August 18 - September 2, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted July 5-24, 2014 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: SurveyUSA Oregon Gubernatorial Survey

SurveyUSA Oregon Gubernatorial Survey 

• John Kitzhaber (D) 48% (46%) {43%} [44%] (40%)
• Chris Dudley (R) 41% (45%) {49%} [46%] (47%)

Among Men

• Chris Dudley (R) 47% (51%) {57%} [44%] (50%)
• John Kitzhaber (D) 44% (40%) {38%} [48%] (36%)

Among Women

• John Kitzhaber (D) 51% (52%) {48%} [41%] (44%)
• Chris Dudley (R) 36% (40%) {42%} [47%] (44%)

Among Democrats

• John Kitzhaber (D) 82% (76%) {76%} [73%] (70%)
• Chris Dudley (R) 12% (18%) {20%} [19%] (20%)

Among Republicans

• Chris Dudley (R) 83% (83%) {82%} [84%] (79%)
• John Kitzhaber (D) 9% (12%) {10%} [7%] (13%)

Among Independents

• Chris Dudley (R) 43% (46%) {61%} [45%] (41%)
• John Kitzhaber (D) 36% (37%) {28%} [41%] (35%) 

Among Moderates

• John Kitzhaber (D) 56% (51%) {51%} [50%] (51%)
• Chris Dudley (R) 34% (41%) {43%} [39%] (34%)

Portland

• John Kitzhaber (D) 49% (48%) {46%} [46%] (43%)
• Chris Dudley (R) 42% (43%) {46%} [44%] (44%)

Rest of Oregon

• John Kitzhaber (D) 46% (43%) {38%} [41%] (35%)
• Chris Dudley (R) 40% (49%) {56%} [49%] (53%)

College Grad

• John Kitzhaber (D) 51% (54%) {46%} [48%] (48%)
• Chris Dudley (R) 41% (38%) {44%} [43%] (46%)

Not a College Grad

• John Kitzhaber (D) 45% (36%) {41%} [41%] (33%)
• Chris Dudley (R) 41% (54%) {54%} [47%] (49%)

Pro-Choice

• John Kitzhaber (D) 66% (63%) {65%} [62%] (54%)
• Chris Dudley (R) 26% (30%) {29%} [31%] (33%)

Pro-Life

• Chris Dudley (R) 70% (75%) {75%} [68%] (71%)
• John Kitzhaber (D) 18% (16%) {17%} [19%] (18%) 

Regularly Attend Religious Service

• Chris Dudley (R) 61% (58%) {61%} [60%] (56%)
• John Kitzhaber (D) 36% (33%) {34%} [28%] (37%)

Occasionally Attend Religious Service

• Chris Dudley (R) 48% (48%) {51%} [49%] (53%)
• John Kitzhaber (D) 47% (46%) {36%} [44%] (33%)

Almost Never Attend Religious Service 

• John Kitzhaber (D) 64% (56%) {58%} [60%] (47%)
• Chris Dudley (R) 31% (35%) {36%} [31%] (37%)

Already Voted (60%)

• John Kitzhaber (D) 51%
• Chris Dudley (R) 42%

Did Not Vote Yet (40%)

• John Kitzhaber (D) 43%
• Chris Dudley (R) 41%

Is your opinion of the Tea Party movement favorable or unfavorable?

• Favorable 28% (29%) {34%} [32%] (34%)
• Unfavorable 39% (42%) {36%} [33%] (32%)

Survey of 580 likely and actual voters was conducted October 23-28, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 3.9 percentage points.  Party ID breakdown: 45% (45%) {44%} [46%] (38%) Democrat; 31% (32%) {32%} [32%] (35%) Republican; 21% (21%) {23%} [20%] (26%) Independent.  Political ideology: 37% (36%) {39%} [41%] (43%) Moderate; 32% (33%) {37%} [31%] (34%) Conservative; 23% (25%) {21%} [21%] (18%) Liberal.  Abortion: 60% (62%) {56%} [57%] (57%) Pro-choice; 34% (34%) {42%} [41%] (40%) Pro-life.  Attend Religious Service: 37% (37%) {36%} [37%] (38%) Regularly; 21% (19%) {25%} [22%] (22%) Occasionally; 41% (43%) {39%} [41%] (40%) Almost Never.  Results from the poll conducted October 12-14, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted September 12-14, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 25-27, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted June 7-9, 2010 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Rasmussen Oregon Gubernatorial Survey

Rasmussen Oregon Gubernatorial Survey

• Chris Dudley (R) 45% {44%} [47%] (45%) {47%} [47%] (45%) {41%} [36%]
• John Kitzhaber (D) 44% {45%} [43%] (44%) {44%} [45%] (44%) {41%} [42%]

With Leaners

• Chris Dudley (R) 49% {46%} [49%] (49%)
• John Kitzhaber (D) 46% {48%} [44%] (45%)

Among Voters Certain of Their Vote

• Chris Dudley (R) 51% {50%} [53%] (49%)
• John Kitzhaber (D) 46% {50%} [47%] (51%)

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Chris Dudley 59% {51%} [57%] (59%) {53%} [48%] (53%) {46%} [40%] / 34% {43%} [30%] (30%) {29%} [28%] (25%) {25%} [24%] {+25%}
• John Kitzhaber 49% {50%} [48%] (50%) {47%} [46%] (46%) {58%} [44%] / 48% {45%} [45%] (44%) {44%} [47%] (47%) {34%} [42%] {+1%}

How would you rate the job Ted Kulongoski has been doing as Governor?

• Strongly approve 17% {15%} [16%] (15%) {13%} [12%] (18%) {14%} [10%] (7%)
• Somewhat approve 28% {30%} [29%] (29%) {30%} [26%] (28%) {34%} [30%] (33%)
• Somewhat disapprove 13% {16%} [17%] (24%) {19%} [25%] (17%) {19%} [20%] (24%)
• Strongly disapprove 39% {37%} [35%] (32%) {34%} [33%] (34%) {32%} [36%] (34%)

How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President?

• Strongly approve 26% {34%} [38%] (31%) {31%} [32%] (37%) {41%} [35%] (30%)
• Somewhat approve 23% {15%} [16%] (22%) {17%} [17%] (15%) {18%} [18%] (20%)
• Somewhat disapprove 6% {8%} [5%] (5%) {9%} [9%] (8%) {6%} [7%] (12%)
• Strongly disapprove 44% {42%} [41%] (42%) {43%} [39%] (41%) {34%} [40%] (37%)

Survey of 750 likely voters was conducted October 25, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points.  Party ID breakdown: 43% {36%} Democrat; 30% {27%} Republican; 27% {37%} Independent/Other.  Results from the poll conducted October 10, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 8, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 22, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted July 26, 2010 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted June 17, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 20, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted April 26, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 17, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 16, 2010 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:

Dudley is now backed by 90% of Republicans in Oregon. Kitzhaber draws support from just 77% of Democrats.  Among voters not affiliated with either political party, Dudley holds a 51% to 38% edge.

Poll Watch: OPB/Fox12/Portland Tribune Oregon Gubernatorial Survey

OPB/Fox12/Portland Tribune Oregon Gubernatorial Survey 

• Chris Dudley (R) 45%
• John Kitzhaber (D) 42%
• Other 2%
• Don't know 12%

Survey of 500 likely voters was conducted by Davis, Hibbitts and Midghall October 24-25, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points.  Party registration breakdown: 44% Democrat; 35% Republican; 20% Independent/Other.

Poll Watch: Daily Kos/PPP (D) Oregon Political Survey

Daily Kos/PPP (D) Oregon Political Survey

SENATORIAL ELECTION

• Ron Wyden (D) 56% 
• Jim Huffman (R) 40%
• Undecided 4%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Ron Wyden 57% / 35% {+22%}
• Jim Huffman 37% / 31% {+6%}

GUBERNATORIAL ELECTION

• John Kitzhaber (D) 48%
• Chris Dudley (R) 47%
• Undecided 5%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Chris Dudley 48% / 38% {+10%}
• John Kitzhaber 49% / 44% {+5%}

Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Ted Kulongoski's job performance?

• Approve 34%
• Disapprove 52%

Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Jeff Merkley's job performance?

• Approve 35%
• Disapprove 33%

Do you approve or disapprove of President Barack Obama's job performance?

• Approve 47%
• Disapprove 46%

Generally speaking if there was an election today would you vote to reelect Barack Obama or would you vote for his Republican opponent?

• Vote to reelect Barack Obama 51%
• Vote for his Republican opponent 45%
• Undecided 4%

Survey of 1,229 likely voters was conducted October 16-17, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 2.8 percentage points.  Party ID breakdown: 44% Democrat; 34% Republican; 22% Independent/Other.  Political ideology: 41% Moderate; 34% Conservative; 25% Liberal.

Poll Watch: SurveyUSA Oregon Gubernatorial Survey

SurveyUSA Oregon Gubernatorial Survey 

• John Kitzhaber (D) 46% {43%} [44%] (40%)
• Chris Dudley (R) 45% {49%} [46%] (47%)

Among Men

• Chris Dudley (R) 51% {57%} [44%] (50%)
• John Kitzhaber (D) 40% {38%} [48%] (36%)

Among Women

• John Kitzhaber (D) 52% {48%} [41%] (44%)
• Chris Dudley (R) 40% {42%} [47%] (44%)

Among Democrats

• John Kitzhaber (D) 76% {76%} [73%] (70%)
• Chris Dudley (R) 18% {20%} [19%] (20%)

Among Republicans

• Chris Dudley (R) 83% {82%} [84%] (79%)
• John Kitzhaber (D) 12% {10%} [7%] (13%)

Among Independents

• Chris Dudley (R) 46% {61%} [45%] (41%)
• John Kitzhaber (D) 37% {28%} [41%] (35%) 

Among Moderates

• John Kitzhaber (D) 51% {51%} [50%] (51%)
• Chris Dudley (R) 41% {43%} [39%] (34%)

Portland

• John Kitzhaber (D) 48% {46%} [46%] (43%)
• Chris Dudley (R) 43% {46%} [44%] (44%)

Rest of Oregon

• Chris Dudley (R) 49% {56%} [49%] (53%)
• John Kitzhaber (D) 43% {38%} [41%] (35%)

College Grad

• John Kitzhaber (D) 54% {46%} [48%] (48%)
• Chris Dudley (R) 38% {44%} [43%] (46%)

Not a College Grad

• Chris Dudley (R) 54% {54%} [47%] (49%)
• John Kitzhaber (D) 36% {41%} [41%] (33%)

Pro-Choice

• John Kitzhaber (D) 63% {65%} [62%] (54%)
• Chris Dudley (R) 30% {29%} [31%] (33%)

Pro-Life

• Chris Dudley (R) 75% {75%} [68%] (71%)
• John Kitzhaber (D) 16% {17%} [19%] (18%) 

Regularly Attend Religious Service

• Chris Dudley (R) 58% {61%} [60%] (56%)
• John Kitzhaber (D) 33% {34%} [28%] (37%)

Occasionally Attend Religious Service

• Chris Dudley (R) 48% {51%} [49%] (53%)
• John Kitzhaber (D) 46% {36%} [44%] (33%)

Almost Never Attend Religious Service 

• John Kitzhaber (D) 56% {58%} [60%] (47%)
• Chris Dudley (R) 35% {36%} [31%] (37%)

Is your opinion of the Tea Party movement favorable or unfavorable?

• Favorable 29% {34%} [32%] (34%)
• Unfavorable 42% {36%} [33%] (32%)

Survey of 652 likely voters was conducted October 12-14, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 3.9 percentage points.  Party ID breakdown: 45% {44%} [46%] (38%) Democrat; 32% {32%} [32%] (35%) Republican; 21% {23%} [20%] (26%) Independent.  Political ideology: 36% {39%} [41%] (43%) Moderate; 33% {37%} [31%] (34%) Conservative; 25% {21%} [21%] (18%) Liberal.  Abortion: 62% {56%} [57%] (57%) Pro-choice; 34% {42%} [41%] (40%) Pro-life.  Attend Religious Service: 37% {36%} [37%] (38%) Regularly; 19% {25%} [22%] (22%) Occasionally; 43% {39%} [41%] (40%) Almost Never.  Results from the poll conducted September 12-14, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 25-27, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted June 7-9, 2010 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Rasmussen Oregon Gubernatorial Survey

Rasmussen Oregon Gubernatorial Survey

• John Kitzhaber (D) 45% [43%] (44%) {44%} [45%] (44%) {41%} [42%]
• Chris Dudley (R) 44% [47%] (45%) {47%} [47%] (45%) {41%} [36%]

With Leaners

• John Kitzhaber (D) 48% [44%] (45%)
• Chris Dudley (R) 46% [49%] (49%)

Among Voters Certain of Their Vote

• John Kitzhaber (D) 50% [47%] (51%)
• Chris Dudley (R) 50% [53%] (49%)

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Chris Dudley 51% [57%] (59%) {53%} [48%] (53%) {46%} [40%] / 43% [30%] (30%) {29%} [28%] (25%) {25%} [24%] {+8%}
• John Kitzhaber 50% [48%] (50%) {47%} [46%] (46%) {58%} [44%] / 45% [45%] (44%) {44%} [47%] (47%) {34%} [42%] {+5%}

How would you rate the job Ted Kulongoski has been doing as Governor?

• Strongly approve 15% [16%] (15%) {13%} [12%] (18%) {14%} [10%] (7%)
• Somewhat approve 30% [29%] (29%) {30%} [26%] (28%) {34%} [30%] (33%)
• Somewhat disapprove 16% [17%] (24%) {19%} [25%] (17%) {19%} [20%] (24%)
• Strongly disapprove 37% [35%] (32%) {34%} [33%] (34%) {32%} [36%] (34%)

How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President?

• Strongly approve 34% [38%] (31%) {31%} [32%] (37%) {41%} [35%] (30%)
• Somewhat approve 15% [16%] (22%) {17%} [17%] (15%) {18%} [18%] (20%)
• Somewhat disapprove 8% [5%] (5%) {9%} [9%] (8%) {6%} [7%] (12%)
• Strongly disapprove 42% [41%] (42%) {43%} [39%] (41%) {34%} [40%] (37%)

Survey of 750 likely voters was conducted October 10, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points.  Party ID breakdown: 36% Democrat; 27% Republican; 37% Independent/Other.  Results from the poll conducted September 8, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 22, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted July 26, 2010 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted June 17, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 20, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted April 26, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 17, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 16, 2010 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:

Dudley is now backed by 88% of Republicans in Oregon. Kitzhaber draws support from 83% of Democrats.  Among voters not affiliated with either political party, Dudley holds a 46% to 42% edge.