Poll Watch: University of Mary Washington Virginia 2016 Democratic Primary Survey

UMW Virginia 2016 Democratic Presidential Primary Poll 

• Hillary Clinton 63%
• Bernie Sanders 27%
• Martin O'Malley 5%

Survey of 276 likely Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters was conducted November 4-9, 2015.

Poll Watch: University of Mary Washington Virginia 2016 Republican Primary Survey

UMW Virginia 2016 GOP Presidential Primary Poll 

• Ben Carson 29%
• Donald Trump 24%
• Marco Rubio 11%
• Ted Cruz 10%
• Jeb Bush 5%
• Carly Fiorina 5%
• Chris Christie 4%
• Mike Huckabee 4%
• Rand Paul 4%
• John Kasich 1%
• Jim Gilmore 0%

Second Choice 

• Ben Carson 21%
• Marco Rubio 16%
• Donald Trump 15%
• Ted Cruz 10%
• Jeb Bush 7%
• Carly Fiorina 7%
• Chris Christie 6%
• Mike Huckabee 5%
• Rand Paul 3%
• John Kasich 2%
• Jim Gilmore 0%

Note: Poll did not include the following candidates: Lindsey Graham, Bobby Jindal, George Pataki, and Rick Santorum.

Survey of 333 likely Republican and GOP-leaning voters was conducted November 4-9, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 5.1 percentage points.

Poll Watch: UMass Amherst 2016 Democratic Nomination Survey

UMass Amherst 2016 Democratic Nomination Poll

• Hillary Clinton 63%
• Bernie Sanders 29%
• Martin O'Malley 6%

Survey of 381 likely Democratic primary voters was conducted November 5-13, 2015 by YouGov America. The margin of error is +/- 6.0 percentage points.

Poll Watch: UMass Amherst 2016 Republican Nomination Survey

UMass Amherst 2016 GOP Nomination Poll

• Donald Trump 31%
• Ben Carson 22%
• Ted Cruz 13%
• Marco Rubio 9%
• Carly Fiorina 4%
• John Kasich 4%
• Rand Paul 4%
• Jeb Bush 3%
• Chris Christie 2%
• Mike Huckabee 1%
• Bobby Jindal 1% 
• Rick Santorum 0%
• Lindsey Graham 0%
• Jim Gilmore 0%
• George Pataki 0%

Second Choice

• Ben Carson 16%
• Marco Rubio 11%
• Ted Cruz 10%
• Donald Trump 9%
  
• Carly Fiorina 7%
• Chris Christie 5%
• Jeb Bush 4%
• John Kasich 3%
• Mike Huckabee 3%
• Rand Paul 2%
• Bobby Jindal 1%  
• George Pataki 1%
• Rick Santorum 1%
• Lindsey Graham 0%
• Jim Gilmore 0%

National survey of 318 likely Republican primary voters was conducted November 5-13, 2015 by YouGov America. The margin of error is +/- 6.4 percentage points.

Poll Watch: Gravis Marketing (R) New Hampshire 2016 Democratic Primary Survey

Gravis Marketing (R) New Hampshire 2016 Democratic Primary Poll

• Hillary Clinton 46% (30.2%) {43%} [45%] (49%)
• Bernie Sanders 25% (32.8%) {39%} [12%] (12%)
• Martin O'Malley 3% (1.5%) {2%} [4%] (2%) 

Survey of 214 registered Democratic primary voters was conducted November 11, 2015.  The margin of error is +/- 6.7 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted October 5-6, 2015 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted July 31 - August 3, 2015 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted April 21-22, 2015 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted March 18-19, 2015 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Gravis Marketing (R) New Hampshire 2016 Republican Primary Survey

Gravis Marketing (R) New Hampshire 2016 GOP Primary Poll

• Donald Trump 29% (31.5%) {32%} [12%] 
• Ted Cruz 12% (5.3%) {3%} [4%] (10%) {6%} [6%] (12%)
• Marco Rubio 10% (8.3%) {3%} [9%] (11%) {7%} [8%] (8%)
• Chris Christie 8% (2.9%) {9%} [4%] (5%) {10%} [12%] (15%)
• Jeb Bush 8% (7.5%) {7%} [21%] (18%) {18%} [16%] (16%) 
• Ben Carson 7% (12.5%) {8%} [5%] (4%) {6%}
• John Kasich 5% (10.0%) {15%}
• Rand Paul 5% (1.5%) {6%} [13%] (15%) {10%} [11%] (12%)
• Carly Fiorina 4% (8.2%) {2%} [5%] (3%) {4%}
• Bobby Jindal 1% (0.4%) {2%}
• Mike Huckabee 1% (0.3%) {1%} [5%] (3%) {4%} [6%] (11%)
• George Pataki 0.1% (0.1%) {1%}
• Rick Santorum 0.1% (0.5%) {2%} (1%) {1%} [3%] (3%)  
• Lindsey Graham 0.1% (1.4%) {2%}

Survey of 330 registered Republican primary voters was conducted November 11, 2015.  The margin of error is +/- 5.4 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted October 5-6, 2015 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted July 31 - August 3, 2015 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted June 2-3, 2015 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted April 21-22, 2015 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted March 18-19, 2015 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted February 2-3, 2015 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted January 29-30, 2014 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Opinion Savvy (R) Florida 2016 Republican Primary Survey

Opinion Savvy (R) Florida 2016 GOP Primary Poll

• Donald Trump 22.7% [29%] (27%)
• Ben Carson 22.3% [25%] (8%)
• Marco Rubio 17.9% [6%] (7%) 
• Ted Cruz 12.4% [3%] (8%) 
• Jeb Bush 10.9% [19%] (26%)
• Carly Fiorina 4.7% [5%] (2%)
• Chris Christie 2.9% [2%] (1%)
• John Kasich 2.8% [3%] (3%)
• Mike Huckabee 1.0% [2%] (4%) 
• Rand Paul 1.0% [0%] (2%)
• Bobby Jindal 0.4% [1%] (2%)
• Lindsey Graham 0.0% [0%] (0%)
• George Pataki 0.0% [0%]
• Rick Santorum 0.1% [0%]
• Undecided 1.0% [4%] 

Survey of 806 likely Republican primary voters was conducted November 11, 2015 for The Florida Times-Union and Fox 13 Tampa Bay. The margin of error is +/- 3.4 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted September 1, 2015 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted August 3, 2015 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: InsiderAdvantage/Opinion Savvy (R) Georgia 2016 Republican Primary Survey

InsiderAdvantage/Opinion Savvy (R) Georgia 2016 GOP Primary Poll

• Ben Carson 26.3% {25%} [10%] (15.5%)
• Donald Trump 24.0% {34%} [30%] (1.9%)
• Ted Cruz 13.7% {6%} [6%]
• Marco Rubio 8.6% {2%} (3.9%)
• Jeb Bush 7.6% {11%} [17%] (21.5%)
• Carly Fiorina 6.1% {5%}
• Chris Christie 3.6% {2%} (3.0%) 
• John Kasich 1.8% {3%}
• Mike Huckabee 1.5% {5%} [7%] (16.4%)
• Rand Paul 1.2% {0%} (3.9%) 
• Lindsey Graham 0.9% {0.1%}
• Bobby Jindal 0.0% {0.1%} 
• George Pataki 0.0% {0%}
• Rick Santorum 0.0% {0.1%}

Survey of 674 likely Republican primary voters was conducted November 11, 2015 for Fox5 Atlanta and Morris News Service. The margin of error is +/- 3.7 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted September 1, 2015 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted August 3, 2015 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted February 4, 2015 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: CBS News/New York Times 2016 Democratic Nomination Survey

CBS News/New York Times 2016 Democratic Nomination Poll

• Hillary Clinton 52% {56%} [58%]
• Bernie Sanders 33% {32%} [28%]
• Martin O'Malley 5% {1%} [0%]

Survey of 418 registered Democratic primary voters was conducted November 6-10, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 6 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted October 4-8, 2015 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 9-13, 2015 are in square brackets.

Poll Watch: UT/TT Texas 2016 Democratic Primary Survey

UT/TT Texas 2016 Democratic Primary Poll

• Hillary Clinton 61% {53%} [62%] (60%) {64%} [67%] (66%)
• Bernie Sanders 30% {15%} [5%]
• Martin O'Malley 1% {1%} [1%] (0%) {0%} [1%] (0%) 

Internet survey of 459 registered Democratic primary voters was conducted October 30 - November 8, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 4.57 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted June 5-14, 2015 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted February 6-15, 2015 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted October 10-19, 2014 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted May 30 - June 8, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted October 18-27, 2013 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted May 31 - June 9, 2013 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: UT/TT Texas 2016 Republican Primary Survey

UT/TT Texas 2016 GOP Primary Poll

• Ted Cruz 27% (20%) {20%} [27%] (33%) {28%} [32%] (25%)
• Donald Trump 27% (2%)
• Ben Carson 13% (6%) {9%} [10%] 
• Marco Rubio 9% (8%) {4%} [3%] (6%) {6%} [6%] (11%)
• Jeb Bush 4% (7%) {9%} [7%] (7%) {8%} [9%] 
• Rand Paul 4% (6%) {4%} [7%] (9%) {10%} [6%] (13%)
• Carly Fiorina 4% (3%) {0%}
• Mike Huckabee 2% (5%) {5%} [7%] (8%)  
• Chris Christie 1% (1%) {2%} [3%] (3%) {4%} [4%] (8%)
• Rick Santorum 1% (2%) {1%} [1%] (1%) {4%} [3%] (2%)
• John Kasich 1% (1%) {1%} [0%]
• Bobby Jindal 0% (1%) {1%} [2%] (2%) {6%} [3%] (2%)
• Lindsey Graham 0% (1%) {0%}
• George Pataki 0% (0%)
• Jim Gilmore 0%

Second Choice

• Ted Cruz 19% (16%) {12%}
  
• Ben Carson 19% (5%) {13%}
  
• Donald Trump 15% (2%)
• Marco Rubio 10% (9%) {7%}
• Carly Fiorina 7% (4%) {1%}
• Jeb Bush 6% (5%) {6%}
• Mike Huckabee 5% (7%) {7%}
• Chris Christie 4% (3%) {3%}
• Rand Paul 3% (8%) {7%}
• John Kasich 2% (1%) {2%}
• Bobby Jindal 1% (3%) {5%}
• George Pataki 1% (0%)
• Rick Santorum 1% (2%) {2%}
• Jim Gilmore 0%
• Lindsey Graham 0% (2%) {0%}

Internet survey of 542 registered GOP primary voters was conducted October 30 - November 8, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 4.21 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted June 5-14, 2015 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted February 6-15, 2015 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted October 10-19, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted May 30 - June 8, 2014 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted February 7-17, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted October 18-27, 2013 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted May 31 - June 9, 2013 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Behavior Research Center Arizona 2016 Republican Primary Survey

BRC Arizona 2016 GOP Primary Poll

• Ben Carson 23%
• Donald Trump 21%
• Marco Rubio 15%
• Jeb Bush 8%
• Ted Cruz 5%
• Carly Fiorina 2%
• Chris Christie 1%
• Mike Huckabee 1%
• John Kasich 1%
• Rand Paul 1%
• Lindsey Graham 0%
• Bobby Jindal 0%
• Rick Santorum 0% 
• Not sure yet 22%

Survey of 226 registered GOP voters was conducted October 24 - November 5, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 6.7 percentage points.

Poll Watch: Monmouth University South Carolina 2016 Democratic Primary Survey

Monmouth University South Carolina 2016 Democratic Primary Poll

• Hillary Clinton 69%
• Bernie Sanders 21%
• Martin O'Malley 1%

Survey of 400 Democratic primary voters was conducted November 5-8, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 4.9 percentage points.

Poll Watch: Public Policy Polling (D) South Carolina 2016 Democratic Primary Survey

PPP (D) South Carolina 2016 Democratic Primary Poll

• Hillary Clinton 72% [54%] (59%)
• Bernie Sanders 18% [9%] (1%)
• Martin O'Malley 5% [2%] (3%) 

Survey of 400 Democratic primary voters was conducted November 7-8, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 4.9 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted September 3-6, 2015 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted February 12-15, 2015 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Public Policy Polling (D) South Carolina 2016 Republican Primary Survey

PPP (D) South Carolina 2016 GOP Primary Poll

• Donald Trump 25% [37%]
• Ben Carson 21% [21%] (13%)
• Ted Cruz 15% [6%] (3%)
• Marco Rubio 13% [4%]
• Jeb Bush 8% [6%] (19%)
• Carly Fiorina 5% [4%]
• John Kasich 3% [4%]
• Lindsey Graham 2% [3%] (13%)
• Mike Huckabee 2% [3%] (12%)
• Rand Paul 2% [3%] (5%)
• Chris Christie 1% [1%] (7%)
• Rick Santorum 1% [2%] 
• Jim Gilmore 0% [0%]
• Bobby Jindal 0% [1%] 
• George Pataki 0% [0%]
• Undecided 3% (6%)

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Ben Carson 69% [74%] (45%) / 17% [14%] (11%) {+52%}
• Marco Rubio 60% [53%] / 22% [29%] {+38%}
• Ted Cruz 57% [52%] (39%) / 22% [27%] (23%) {+35%}
• Mike Huckabee 56% [55%] (65%) / 29% [30%] (14%) {+27%}
• Bobby Jindal 46% / 20% {+26%}
• Carly Fiorina 49% [54%] / 26% [22%] {+23%}
• Donald Trump 53% [64%] / 33% [28%] {+20%}
• Chris Christie 44% [28%] (28%) / 29% [55%] (46%) {+15%}
• Rick Santorum 42% / 28% {+14%}
• Rand Paul 37% [28%] (42%) / 37% [52%] (26%) {0%}
• Lindsey Graham 39% / 48% {-9%} 
• Jeb Bush 36% [33%] (52%) / 46% [52%] (27%) {-10%}
• John Kasich 23% [27%] / 40% [34%] {-17%}
• Jim Gilmore 3% / 26% {-23%}
• George Pataki 10% / 39% {-29%}

Survey of 787 usual GOP primary voters was conducted November 7-8, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 3.5 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted September 3-6, 2015 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted February 12-15, 2015 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Quinnipiac New Jersey 2016 Democratic Primary Survey

Quinnipiac New Jersey 2016 Democratic Primary Poll

• Hillary Clinton 56% [63%] (65%)
• Bernie Sanders 23% [3%] (3%)
• Martin O'Malley 2% [1%] (0%)

Survey of 538 registered Democratic voters was conducted November 4-8, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 4.2 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted April 9-14, 2015 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted January 15-19, 2015 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Quinnipiac New Jersey 2016 Republican Primary Survey

Quinnipiac New Jersey 2016 GOP Primary Poll

• Donald Trump 31%
• Ben Carson 16% [2%] (6%)
• Marco Rubio 15% [7%] (3%)
• Chris Christie 8% [22%] (24%)
• Ted Cruz 7% [6%] (6%) 
• Jeb Bush 4% [11%] (13%)
• Carly Fiorina 4% [1%]
• John Kasich 3% [1%] (0%)
• Bobby Jindal 1% [3%] (2%)
• Rand Paul 1% [9%] (5%)
• Rick Santorum 1% [0%] (0%)
• Jim Gilmore 0%
• Lindsey Graham 0% [0%] 
• Mike Huckabee 0% [4%] (4%)
• George Pataki 0%

Survey of 481 registered Republican voters was conducted November 4-8, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted April 9-14, 2015 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted January 15-19, 2015 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: McClatchy-Marist 2016 National Presidential Survey

McClatchy-Marist 2016 National Presidential Poll

• Hillary Clinton (D) 50% [49%]
• Ben Carson (R) 48% [39%] 

• Hillary Clinton (D) 50% [47%] (49%) {54%} [58%] {52%} [50%] (52%)
• Marco Rubio (R) 45% [42%] (42%) {38%} [37%] {42%} [38%] (40%)

• Hillary Clinton (D) 52% [49%] (49%) {53%} [53%] (48%) {55%} [58%] {53%} [48%] (54%)
• Jeb Bush (R) 44% [43%] (42%) {40%} [42%] (41%) {39%} [38%] {41%} [40%] (38%)

• Hillary Clinton (D) 53% [53%]
• Carly Fiorina (R) 43% [35%]

• Hillary Clinton (D) 53% [49%] (53%) {54%} [56%] {57%}
• Ted Cruz (R) 43% [40%] (39%) {39%} [39%] {35%}

• Hillary Clinton (D) 56% [54%]
• Donald Trump (R) 41% [38%]

National survey of 541 registered voters was conducted October 29 - November 4, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 4.2 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted July 22-28, 2015 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted March 1-4, 2015 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted December 3-9, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 24-29, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted August 4-7, 2014 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted April 7-10, 2014 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 4-9, 2014 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 12-14, 2014 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted December 3-5, 2013 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 15-18, 2013 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 25-27, 2013 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: McClatchy-Marist 2016 Republican Nomination Survey

McClatchy-Marist 2016 GOP Nomination Poll

• Ben Carson 24% {9%} [8%] 
• Donald Trump 23%
• Marco Rubio 12% {5%} [3%] (6%) {9%} [7%] (12%) {7%} [7%] (12%)
• Ted Cruz 8% {4%} [5%] (4%) {10%} [4%] (5%) {5%} [10%] (7%)
• Jeb Bush 8% {19%} [16%] (15%) {13%} [13%] (8%) {8%} [10%] (10%)
• Rand Paul 5% {7%} [6%] (13%) {7%} [12%] (9%) {9%} [12%] (9%) 
• John Kasich 4%
• Carly Fiorina 3% {2%} [1%]
• Mike Huckabee 3% {10%} [12%] [13%] (13%)
• Chris Christie 2% {6%} [10%] (12%) {13%} [12%] (13%) {16%} [18%] (15%)
• George Pataki 1%
• Bobby Jindal 1% 
• Rick Santorum 1% {2%} [3%] (3%) {3%} [3%] (2%) {5%} [4%] (2%) 
• Jim Gilmore 0%
• Lindsey Graham 0% {1%}
• Undecided 4% {13%} [18%] (21%) {23%} [14%] (12%) {25%} [13%] (25%)

Survey of 426 registered Republicans and GOP-leaning Independents was conducted October 29 - November 4, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 4.7 percentage points. Party ID: 65% {68%} {70%} (67%) {57%} [63%] (64%) {65%} [62%] (65%) Republican; 35% {32%} {30%} (33%) {43%} [37%] (36%) {35%} [38%] (35%) Independent. Results from the poll conducted March 1-4, 2015 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted December 3-9, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 24-29, 2014 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted August 4-7, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted April 7-10, 2014 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 4-9, 2014 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted January 12-14, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted December 3-5, 2013 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 15-18, 2013 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Monmouth University South Carolina 2016 Republican Primary Survey

Monmouth University South Carolina 2016 GOP Primary Poll

• Ben Carson 28% (15%) 
• Donald Trump 27% (30%)
• Marco Rubio 11% (6%)
• Ted Cruz 9% (5%)
• Jeb Bush 7% (9%)
• Carly Fiorina 2% (6%)
• Mike Huckabee 2% (3%)
• Chris Christie 1% (2%)
• Lindsey Graham 1% (4%)
• John Kasich 1% (3%)
• Rand Paul 1% (3%)
• Rick Santorum 0% (1%) 
• Jim Gilmore 0% (0%)
• Bobby Jindal 0% (0%) 
• George Pataki 0% (0%)
• Undecided (vol.) 9% (11%)

Which of the following best describes where your decision stands at this moment: I am completely decided on which candidate I will support, I have a strong preference right now but I am willing to consider other candidates, I have a slight preference among a group of candidates I like, or I am really undecided among a number of candidates?

• Completely decided 17%
• Strong preference 39%
• Slight preference 23%
• Undecided 20%

If the choices were limited to the following candidates, who would you choose?

• Marco Rubio 32%
• Jeb Bush 13%
• Chris Christie 10%
• Mike Huckabee 8%
• Lindsey Graham 4%
• Bobby Jindal 4%
• Rand Paul 4%
• John Kasich 3%
• No one (vol.) 11%
• Undecided (vol.) 10%

If the choices were limited to the following candidates, who would you choose?

• Ben Carson 39%
• Donald Trump 30%
• Ted Cruz 15%
• Carly Fiorina 7%
• No one (vol.) 3%
• Undecided (vol.) 6%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net} 

• Ben Carson 76% (72%) / 12% (9%) {+64%}
• Marco Rubio 62% (58%) / 18% (16%) {+44%}
• Ted Cruz 52% (47%) / 21% (21%) {+31%}
• Donald Trump 58% (58%) / 29% (28%) {+29%}
• Carly Fiorina 51% (55%) / 22% (15%) {+29%}
• Jeb Bush 41% (52%) / 43% (32%) {-2%}
• Lindsey Graham 30% (35%) / 53% (50%) {-23%}

Survey of 401 likely GOP primary voters was conducted November 5-8, 2015.  The margin of error is +/- 4.9 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted August 20-23, 2015 are in parentheses.