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PPP (D) Wisconsin 2012 GOP Senate Primary Poll
- Eric Hovde 27% (28%) {31%}
- Tommy Thompson 25% (25%) {29%} [39%]
- Mark Neumann 24% (25%) {15%} [22%]
- Jeff Fitzgerald 15% (13%) {9%} [22%]
- Undecided 9% (9%) {16%} [17%]
Among Men
- Eric Hovde 31% (32%) {36%}
- Tommy Thompson 27% (25%) {29%}
- Mark Neumann 19% (24%) {14%}
- Jeff Fitzgerald 15% (12%) {8%}
- Undecided 8% (8%) {13%}
Among Women
- Mark Neumann 28% (27%) {16%}
- Tommy Thompson 24% (24%) {29%}
- Eric Hovde 22% (25%) {26%}
- Jeff Fitzgerald 15% (14%) {10%}
- Undecided 11% (10%) {19%}
Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}
- Eric Hovde 56% (50%) {50%} / 22% (30%) {9%} {+34%}
- Jeff Fitzgerald 45% (43%) {42%} [42%] / 15% (21%) {12%} [12%] {+30%}
- Mark Neumann 55% (49%) {43%} [47%] / 28% (35%) {21%} [14%] {+27%}
- Tommy Thompson 51% (47%) {56%} [66%] / 37% (41%) {28%} [17%] {+14%}
Would you say you are very excited, somewhat excited, or not that excited about voting in the primary election?
- Very excited 38% (42%)
- Somewhat excited 35% (34%)
- Not that excited 27% (24%)
Very Excited
- Eric Hovde 37% (24%)
- Jeff Fitzgerald 20% (18%)
- Mark Neumann 19% (26%)
- Tommy Thompson 17% (27%)
- Undecided 8% (5%)
Somewhat Excited - Tommy Thompson 30% (19%)
- Mark Neumann 27% (27%)
- Eric Hovde 23% (37%)
- Jeff Fitzgerald 11% (9%)
- Undecided 9% (8%)
Do you consider yourself to be a member of the Tea Party?
- Yes 31% (26%) {25%} [26%]
- No 56% (64%) {58%} [54%]
- Not sure 13% (10%) {17%} [19%]
Are you an Evangelical Christian, or not?
- Are an Evangelical 47% (51%)
- Are not 53% (49%)
Survey of 557 likely Republican primary voters was conducted August 8-9, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 4.2 percentage points. Political ideology: 41% (37%) Very conservative; 30% (38%) Somewhat conservative; 17% (19%) Moderate; 5% (4%) Somewhat liberal; 1% (3%) Very liberal. Results from the poll conducted July 30-31, 2012 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted July 6-8, 2012 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted February 23-26, 2012 are in square brackets.
REPUBLICAN PRIMARY
Among Registered Voters
- Tommy Thompson 36% {35%} [34%]
- Eric Hovde 24% {21%} [14%]
- Mark Neumann 19% {11%} [15%]
- Jeff Fitzgerald 13% {7%} [10%]
- Undecided/Don't know 8% {25%} [26%]
Among Likely Voters
- Tommy Thompson 33% {35%} [34%]
- Eric Hovde 24% {23%} [14%]
- Mark Neumann 21% {10%} [16%]
- Jeff Fitzgerald 15% {6%} [10%]
- Undecided/Don't know 7% {25%} [25%]
GENERAL ELECTION
Among Registered Voters
- Tommy Thompson (R) 46% {46%} [49%] (48%)
- Tammy Baldwin (D) 42% {39%} [39%] (42%)
- Tammy Baldwin (D) 42% {41%} [43%] (44%)
- Mark Neumann (R) 42% {39%} [41%] (40%)
- Tammy Baldwin (D) 43% {42%} [44%]
- Eric Hovde (R) 39% {36%} [33%]
- Tammy Baldwin (D) 45% {41%} [44%] (45%)
- Jeff Fitzgerald (R) 38% {37%} [36%] (37%)
Among Likely Voters
- Tommy Thompson (R) 48% {45%} [49%]
- Tammy Baldwin (D) 43% {41%} [41%]
- Tammy Baldwin (D) 44% {43%} [44%]
- Mark Neumann (R) 44% {40%} [44%]
- Tammy Baldwin (D) 44% {44%} [45%]
- Eric Hovde (R) 41% {38%} [36%]
- Tammy Baldwin (D) 45% {43%} [45%]
- Jeff Fitzgerald (R) 40% {37%} [39%]
Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}
- Tommy Thompson 39% {44%} [48%] (44%) / 43% {36%} [36%] (34%) {-4%}
- Eric Hovde 21% {19%} [14%] / 25% {12%} [13%] {-4%}
- Tammy Baldwin 30% {26%} [27%] (21%) / 35% {31%} [30%] (27%) {-5%}
- Jeff Fitzgerald 17% {15%} [17%] (17%) / 23% {18%} [22%] (23%) {-6%}
- Mark Neumann 23% {21%} [24%] (22%) / 34% {23%} [24%] (22%) {-11%}
Survey of 1,400 registered voters, including subsamples of 1,188 likely general election voters, and 519 likely GOP primary voters, was conducted August 2-5, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 2.7 percentage points among all registered voters; +/- 2.9 percentage points among likely general election voters; +/- 4.4 percentage points among likely GOP primary voters. Party ID: 32% {33%} [30%] (34%) Democrat; 30% {29%} [27%] (26%) Republican; 35% {36%} [39%] (35%) Independent. Political views: 33% {32%} [31%] (30%) Conservative; 31% {35%} [34%] (38%) Moderate; 17% {15%} [16%] (14%) Liberal; 10% {8%} [10%] (8%) Very conservative; 6% {5%} [6%] (4%) Very liberal. Results from the poll conducted July 5-8, 2012 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted June 13-16, 2012 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted February 16-19, 2012 are in parentheses.
- Tammy Baldwin (D) 48%
- Mark Neumann (R) 45%
- Tammy Baldwin (D) 47%
- Eric Hovde (R) 43%
- Tammy Baldwin (D) 51%
- Jeff Fitzgerald (R) 39%
Survey of 1,428 likely voters was conducted July 31 - August 6, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 2.6 percentage points. Party ID: 34% Democrat; 27% Republican; 33% Independent; 6% Other. Click here to view crosstabs.
PPP (D) Wisconsin 2012 GOP Senate Primary Poll
- Eric Hovde 28% {31%}
- Tommy Thompson 25% {29%} [39%]
- Mark Neumann 25% {15%} [22%]
- Jeff Fitzgerald 13% {9%} [22%]
- Undecided 9% {16%} [17%]
If the Republican candidates for Senate were just Eric Hovde, Mark Neumann, and Tommy Thompson, who would you vote for?
- Eric Hovde 33% {35%}
- Tommy Thompson 30% {34%}
- Mark Neumann 27% {18%}
- Not sure 10% {14%}
If the Republican candidates for Senate were just Eric Hovde and Tommy Thompson, who would you vote for?
- Eric Hovde 48% {46%}
- Tommy Thompson 41% {39%}
- Not sure 12% {15%}
If the Republican candidates for Senate were just Mark Neumann and Tommy Thompson, who would you vote for?
- Mark Neumann 47% {38%} [36%]
- Tommy Thompson 42% {46%} [46%]
- Not sure 11% {16%} [18%]
Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}
- Jeff Fitzgerald 43% {42%} [42%] / 21% {12%} [12%] {+22%}
- Eric Hovde 50% {50%} / 30% {9%} {+20%}
- Mark Neumann 49% {43%} [47%] / 35% {21%} [14%] {+14%}
- Tommy Thompson 47% {56%} [66%] / 41% {28%} [17%] {+6%}
Generally speaking, would you prefer that the Republican Senate nominee next year was Tommy Thompson or someone more conservative?
- Tommy Thompson 29% {34%} [37%]
- Someone more conservative 58% {50%} [47%]
- Not sure 13% {17%} [17%]
Would you say you are very excited, somewhat excited, or not that excited about voting in the primary election?
- Very excited 42%
- Somewhat excited 34%
- Not that excited 24%
Very Excited
- Tommy Thompson 27%
- Mark Neumann 26%
- Eric Hovde 24%
- Jeff Fitzgerald 18%
- Undecided 5%
Do you consider yourself to be a member of the Tea Party?
- Yes 26% {25%} [26%]
- No 64% {58%} [54%]
- Not sure 10% {17%} [19%]
Are you an Evangelical Christian, or not?
- Are an Evangelical 51%
- Are not 49%
Survey of 400 likely Republican primary voters was conducted July 30-31, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 4.9 percentage points. Political ideology: 38% Somewhat conservative; 37% Very conservative; 19% Moderate; 4% Somewhat liberal; 3% Very liberal. Results from the poll conducted July 6-8, 2012 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted February 23-26, 2012 are in square brackets.
We Ask America (R) Wisconsin 2012 GOP Senate Primary Poll
- Eric Hovde 23.20%
- Tommy Thompson 22.79%
- Mark Neumann 16.66%
- Jeff Fitzgerald 12.11%
- Undecided/Don't know 25.24%
Survey of 1,237 likely GOP primary voters was conducted July 30, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 2.8 percentage points
- Tammy Baldwin (D) 45% [42%]
- Eric Hovde (R) 42% [44%]
- Some other candidate 5% [4%]
- Not sure 8% [10%]
- Tammy Baldwin (D) 48% [43%] (42%) {48%} [37%] (44%)
- Mark Neumann (R) 42% [45%] (44%) {40%} [46%] (43%)
- Some other candidate 3% [5%] (4%) {4%} [4%] (4%)
- Not sure 8% [7%] (9%) {8%} [13%] (9%)
- Tammy Baldwin (D) 48% [36%] (38%) {44%} [36%] (42%)
- Tommy Thompson (R) 41% [52%] (50%) {48%} [50%] (49%)
- Some other candidate 5% [6%] (5%) {4%} [4%] (4%)
- Not sure 6% [6%] (7%) {4%} [10%] (6%)
- Tammy Baldwin (D) 47% [44%] (45%) {48%} [40%] (46%)
- Jeff Fitzgerald (R) 37% [43%] (41%) {40%} [41%] (39%)
- Some other candidate 6% [5%] (4%) {4%} [4%] (5%)
- Not sure 10% [8%] (9%) {7%} [15%] (11%)
Survey of 500 likely voters was conducted July 25, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted June 12, 2012 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted May 9, 2012 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted March 27, 2012 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted February 27, 2012 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted October 26, 2011 are in parentheses.Baldwin receives between 85% and 89% support from Democrats regardless of which Republican she faces. The GOP hopefuls currently attract 74% to 82% of the vote from within their own party.
Baldwin is now viewed very favorably by 30% of Badger State voters and very unfavorably by 29%. These figures reflect a slight improvement from a month ago.
The four Republicans earn very favorable ratings from 10% to 13% of voters and very unfavorable reviews from 23% to 30%.
Positive assessments for both Thompson and Hovde have fallen over the past month.
REPUBLICAN PRIMARY
Among Registered Voters
- Tommy Thompson 35% [34%]
- Eric Hovde 21% [14%]
- Mark Neumann 11% [15%]
- Jeff Fitzgerald 7% [10%]
- Undecided/Don't know 25% [26%]
Among Likely Voters - Tommy Thompson 35% [34%]
- Eric Hovde 23% [14%]
- Mark Neumann 10% [16%]
- Jeff Fitzgerald 6% [10%]
- Undecided/Don't know 25% [25%]
GENERAL ELECTION
Among Registered Voters
- Tommy Thompson (R) 46% [49%] (48%)
- Tammy Baldwin (D) 39% [39%] (42%)
- Tammy Baldwin (D) 41% [43%] (44%)
- Mark Neumann (R) 39% [41%] (40%)
- Tammy Baldwin (D) 41% [44%] (45%)
- Jeff Fitzgerald (R) 37% [36%] (37%)
- Tammy Baldwin (D) 42% [44%]
- Eric Hovde (R) 36% [33%]
Among Likely Voters - Tommy Thompson (R) 45% [49%]
- Tammy Baldwin (D) 41% [41%]
- Tammy Baldwin (D) 43% [44%]
- Mark Neumann (R) 40% [44%]
- Tammy Baldwin (D) 43% [45%]
- Jeff Fitzgerald (R) 37% [39%]
- Tammy Baldwin (D) 44% [45%]
- Eric Hovde (R) 38% [36%]
Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}
- Tommy Thompson 44% [48%] (44%) / 36% [36%] (34%) {+8%}
- Eric Hovde 19% [14%] / 12% [13%] {+7%}
- Mark Neumann 21% [24%] (22%) / 23% [24%] (22%) {-2%}
- Jeff Fitzgerald 15% [17%] (17%) / 18% [22%] (23%) {-3%}
- Tammy Baldwin 26% [27%] (21%) / 31% [30%] (27%) {-5%}
Survey of 1,000 registered voters, including subsamples of 810 likely general election voters, and 432 likely GOP primary voters, was conducted July 5-8, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 3.2 percentage points among all registered voters; +/- 3.5 percentage points among likely general election voters; +/- 4.8 percentage points among likely GOP primary voters. Party ID: 33% [30%] (34%) Democrat; 29% [27%] (26%) Republican; 36% [39%] (35%) Independent. Political views: 35% [34%] (38%) Moderate; 32% [31%] (30%) Conservative; 15% [16%] (14%) Liberal; 8% [10%] (8%) Very conservative; 5% [6%] (4%) Very liberal. Results from the poll conducted June 13-16, 2012 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted February 16-19, 2012 are in parentheses.
PPP (D) Wisconsin 2012 Senate Poll
REPUBLICAN PRIMARY
- Eric Hovde 31%
- Tommy Thompson 29% [39%]
- Mark Neumann 15% [22%]
- Jeff Fitzgerald 9% [22%]
- Undecided 16% [17%]
If the Republican candidates for Senate were just Eric Hovde, Mark Neumann, and Tommy Thompson, who would you vote for?
- Eric Hovde 35%
- Tommy Thompson 34%
- Mark Neumann 18%
- Not sure 14%
If the Republican candidates for Senate were just Eric Hovde and Tommy Thompson, who would you vote for?
- Eric Hovde 46%
- Tommy Thompson 39%
- Not sure 15%
If the Republican candidates for Senate were just Mark Neumann and Tommy Thompson, who would you vote for?
- Tommy Thompson 46% [46%]
- Mark Neumann 38% [36%]
- Not sure 16% [18%]
Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}
- Eric Hovde 50% / 9% {+41%}
- Jeff Fitzgerald 42% [42%] / 12% [12%] {+30%}
- Tommy Thompson 56% [66%] / 28% [17%] {+28%}
- Mark Neumann 43% [47%] / 21% [14%] {+22%}
Generally speaking, would you prefer that the Republican Senate nominee next year was Tommy Thompson or someone more conservative?
- Tommy Thompson 34% [37%]
- Someone more conservative 50% [47%]
- Not sure 17% [17%]
Do you consider yourself to be a member of the Tea Party?
- Yes 25% [26%]
- No 58% [54%]
- Not sure 17% [19%]
GENERAL ELECTION
- Eric Hovde (R) 45% (45%)
- Tammy Baldwin (D) 44% (41%)
- Tommy Thompson (R) 45% (47%) {47%} [45%] (46%) {50%} [45%]
- Tammy Baldwin (D) 45% (42%) {45%} [46%] (44%) {42%} [44%]
- Tammy Baldwin (D) 45% (42%) {46%} [47%] (44%) {40%} [46%]
- Mark Neumann (R) 41% (46%) {45%} [41%] (43%) {44%} [41%]
- Tammy Baldwin (D) 46% {47%} [47%] (44%) [48%]
- Jeff Fitzgerald (R) 42% {40%} [39%] (40%) [37%]
Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}
- Eric Hovde 31% (21%) / 27% (21%) {+4%}
- Tammy Baldwin 37% {29%} [31%] (28%) {26%} [27%] / 39% {31%} [31%] (30%) {28%} [25%] {-2%}
- Mark Neumann 28% {26%} [23%] (23%) {25%} [27%] / 34% {31%} [34%] (30%) {27%} [26%] {-6%}
- Tommy Thompson 40% {41%} [41%] (42%) {44%} [42%] / 47% {44%} [42%] (42%) {42%} [42%] {-7%}
- Jeff Fitzgerald 25% {21%} [19%] (20%) [19%] / 38% {36%} [38%] (33%) [34%] {-13%}
Survey of 1,057 Wisconsin voters, including a subsample of 564 usual Republican primary voters, was conducted July 6-8, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points among all voters; +/- 4.1 percentage points among GOP primary voters. Party ID: 32% (35%) {32%} [31%] (31%) {34%} [32%] (32%) Republican; 30% (28%) {31%} [33%] (37%) {37%} [37%] (33%) Democrat; 38% (37%) {37%} [36%] (32%) {29%} [31%] (35%) Independent/Other. Political ideology: 28% [31%] (30%) {29%} [30%] (31%) Moderate; 26% [25%] (25%) {21%} [23%] (22%) Somewhat conservative; 18% [19%] (19%) {22%} [20%] (21%) Somewhat liberal; 18% [15%] (17%) {17%} [17%] (18%) Very conservative; 10% [10%] (10%) {11%} [10%] (7%) Very liberal. Results from the poll conducted May 11-13, 2012 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted April 13-15, 2012 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted February 23-26, 2012 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted October 20-23, 2011 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted August 12-14, 2011 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted May 19-22, 2011 are in square brackets.
REPUBLICAN PRIMARY
- Tommy Thompson 34%
- Mark Neumann 16%
- Eric Hovde 14%
- Jeff Fitzgerald 10%
- Undecided/Don't know 25%
GENERAL ELECTION
- Tommy Thompson (R) 49% (48%)
- Tammy Baldwin (D) 39% (42%)
- Tammy Baldwin (D) 43% (44%)
- Mark Neumann (R) 41% (40%)
- Tammy Baldwin (D) 44% (45%)
- Jeff Fitzgerald (R) 36% (37%)
- Tammy Baldwin (D) 44%
- Eric Hovde (R) 33%
Among Likely Voters - Tommy Thompson (R) 49%
- Tammy Baldwin (D) 41%
- Tammy Baldwin (D) 44%
- Mark Neumann (R) 44%
- Tammy Baldwin (D) 45%
- Jeff Fitzgerald (R) 39%
- Tammy Baldwin (D) 45%
- Eric Hovde (R) 36%
Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}
- Tommy Thompson 48% (44%) / 36% (34%) {+12%}
- Eric Hovde 14% / 13% {+1%}
- Mark Neumann 24% (22%) / 24% (22%) {0%}
- Tammy Baldwin 27% (21%) / 30% (27%) {-3%}
- Jeff Fitzgerald 17% (17%) / 22% (23%) {-5%}
Survey of 707 registered voters, including subsamples of 594 likely general election voters, and 344 likely GOP primary voters, was conducted June 13-16, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 3.8 percentage points among all registered voters; +/- 4.1 percentage points among likely general election voters; +/- 5.4 percentage points among likely GOP primary voters. Party ID: 30% (34%) Democrat; 27% (26%) Republican; 39% (35%) Independent. Political views: 34% (38%) Moderate; 31% (30%) Conservative; 16% (14%) Liberal; 10% (8%) Very conservative; 6% (4%) Very liberal. Results from the poll conducted February 16-19, 2012 are in parentheses.
Rasmussen (R) Wisconsin 2012 Senate Poll
- Tommy Thompson (R) 52% (50%) {48%} [50%] (49%)
- Tammy Baldwin (D) 36% (38%) {44%} [36%] (42%)
- Some other candidate 6% (5%) {4%} [4%] (4%)
- Not sure 6% (7%) {4%} [10%] (6%)
- Eric Hovde (R) 44%
- Tammy Baldwin (D) 42%
- Some other candidate 4%
- Not sure 10%
- Mark Neumann (R) 45% (44%) {40%} [46%] (43%)
- Tammy Baldwin (D) 43% (42%) {48%} [37%] (44%)
- Some other candidate 5% (4%) {4%} [4%] (4%)
- Not sure 7% (9%) {8%} [13%] (9%)
- Tammy Baldwin (D) 44% (45%) {48%} [40%] (46%)
- Jeff Fitzgerald (R) 43% (41%) {40%} [41%] (39%)
- Some other candidate 5% (4%) {4%} [4%] (5%)
- Not sure 8% (9%) {7%} [15%] (11%)
Survey of 500 likely voters was conducted June 12, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted May 9, 2012 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted March 27, 2012 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted February 27, 2012 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted October 26, 2011 are in parentheses.
Inside the numbers:All four Republicans continue to lead among male voters, while Baldwin leads among female voters against all her GOP opponents except Thompson. It’s Thompson 46%, Baldwin 40% among women voters in the state.
Baldwin picks up 86% to 91% support among Wisconsin Democrats against three of the Republicans, but against Thompson support in her own party falls to 74%. The former governor leads Baldwin 51% to 32% among voters not affiliated with either of the major parties. The other GOP candidates are also ahead among these voters but by narrower margins.
Twenty-five percent (25%) of all voters in the state share a Very Favorable opinion of Baldwin, while 33% view her Very Unfavorably.
Thompson is viewed Very Favorably by 20% and Very Unfavorably by 20%. For Neumann, Very Favorables are 14%, Very Unfavorables 24%. Fourteen percent (14%) hold a Very Favorable view of Fitzgerald, but 30% regard him Very Unfavorably. Hovde earns Very Favorables of 19% and Very Unfavorables of 21%.
PPP/Daily Kos (D) Wisconsin 2012 Senate Poll
- Tommy Thompson (R) 47% {47%} [45%] (46%) {50%} [45%]
- Tammy Baldwin (D) 42% {45%} [46%] (44%) {42%} [44%]
- Mark Neumann (R) 46% {45%} [41%] (43%) {44%} [41%]
- Tammy Baldwin (D) 42% {46%} [47%] (44%) {40%} [46%]
- Eric Hovde (R) 45%
- Tammy Baldwin (D) 41%
Survey of 851 likely voters was conducted May 11-13, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 3.4 percentage points. Party ID: 35% {32%} [31%] (31%) {34%} [32%] (32%) Republican; 28% {31%} [33%] (37%) {37%} [37%] (33%) Democrat; 37% {37%} [36%] (32%) {29%} [31%] (35%) Independent/Other. Ideology: 41% Moderate; 41% Conservative; 17% Liberal. Results from the poll conducted April 13-15, 2012 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted February 23-26, 2012 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted October 20-23, 2011 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted August 12-14, 2011 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted May 19-22, 2011 are in square brackets.
