Poll Watch: PPP (D) Minnesota Gubernatorial Survey

PPP (D) Minnesota Gubernatorial Survey

• Mark Dayton (D) 43%
• Tom Emmer (R) 40%
• Tom Horner (I) 15%
• Undecided 3%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Tom Horner 35% / 36% {-1%}
• Mark Dayton 43% / 45% {-2%}
• Tom Emmer 37% / 51% {-14%}

Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Tim Pawlenty’s job performance?

• Approve 43%
• Disapprove 50%

Do you want Tim Pawlenty to run for President in 2012?

• Yes 23%
• No 59%

Among Republicans

• Yes 47%
• No 24%

Among Independents

• Yes 19%
• No 60%

Among Conservatives

• Yes 37%
• No 32%

Among Moderates

• Yes 19%
• No 68%

Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Amy Klobuchar’s job performance?

• Approve 53%
• Disapprove 32%

Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Al Franken's job performance?

• Approve 44%
• Disapprove 44%

Do you approve or disapprove of President Barack Obama’s job performance?

• Approve 43%
• Disapprove 49%

Survey of 2,058 likely voters was conducted October 27-29, 2010.  The margin of error is +/- 2.2 percentage points.  Party ID breakdown: 36% Democrat; 31% Republican; 33% Independent/Other.  Political ideology: 43% Moderate; 37% Conservative; 21% Liberal.

Poll Watch: SurveyUSA Minnesota Gubernatorial Survey

SurveyUSA Minnesota Gubernatorial Survey

• Mark Dayton (D) 39% (42%) {38%} [46%] (38%)
• Tom Emmer (R) 38% (37%) {36%} [32%] (35%)
• Tom Horner (I) 13% (14%) {18%} [9%] (12%)
• Undecided 6% (7%) {4%} [13%] (15%)

Survey of 624 likely voters was conducted October 24-27, 2010.  The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted October 11-13, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted September 12-14, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 2-4, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted June 14-16, 2010 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: MPR/Humphrey Institute Minnesota Gubernatorial Survey

MPR/Humphrey Institute Minnesota Gubernatorial Survey

• Mark Dayton (D) 41% (38%) [34%] {35%}
• Tom Emmer (R) 29% (27%) [34%] {31%} 
• Tom Horner (I) 11% (16%) [13%] {9%}
• Don't know 20% (20%) [19%] {14%}

Among Democrats

• Mark Dayton (D) 77% (68%)
• Tom Horner (I) 7% (10%)
• Tom Emmer (R) 2% (2%)
• Don't know 14% (20%)

Among Republicans

• Tom Emmer (R) 68% (59%)
• Tom Horner (I) 11% (22%)
• Mark Dayton (D) 7% (6%)
• Don't know 14% (14%)

Among Independents

• Tom Horner (I) 23% (21%)
• Mark Dayton (D) 23% (16%)
• Tom Emmer (R) 13% (26%)
• Don't know 41% (38%)

Survey of 750 likely voters was conducted October 21-25, 2010.  The margin of error is +/- 3.6 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted September 22-26, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted August 25-29, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 13-16, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Party ID breakdown: 45% (48%) Democrat; 38% (38%) Republican; 16% (12%) Independent.

Poll Watch: Minneapolis Star Tribune Minnesota Gubernatorial Survey

Minneapolis Star Tribune Minnesota Gubernatorial Survey

• Mark Dayton (D) 41% {39%} [40%]
• Tom Emmer (R) 34% {30%} [30%]
• Tom Horner (I) 13% {18%} [13%]

Among Men

• Mark Dayton (D) 38% {34%}
• Tom Emmer (R) 36% {35%}
• Tom Horner (I) 16% {17%} 

Among Women

• Mark Dayton (D) 43% {44%}
• Tom Emmer (R) 32% {26%}
• Tom Horner (I) 11% {19%}

What if there were only two candidates on the ballot for governor and you had to choose between...

• Mark Dayton (D) 49% {49%}
• Tom Emmer (R) 39% {38%}
• Undecided/Other 12% {13%}

Among Tom Horner Supporters

• Mark Dayton (D) 42% {42%}
• Tom Emmer (R) 39% {31%}
• Undecided/Other 19% {27%}

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Mark Dayton 48% {51%} / 40% {38%} {+8%}
• Tom Emmer 41% {40%} / 44% {41%} {-3%}
• Tom Horner 32% {38%} / 39% {28%} {-7%}

Survey of 999 likely voters was conducted October 18-21, 2010.  The margin of error is +/- 3.9 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted September 20-23, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 26-29, 2010 are in square brackets. 

Poll Watch: Rasmussen Minnesota Gubernatorial Survey

Rasmussen Minnesota Gubernatorial Survey

• Mark Dayton (D) 44% {40%} [34%] (45%) {40%} [35%] (38%)
• Tom Emmer (R) 41% {38%} [36%] (36%) {36%} [37%] (35%)
• Tom Horner (I) 10% {15%} [18%] (10%) {10%} [12%] (7%)
• Not sure 4% {5%} [8%] (10%) {14%} [16%] (20%)

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Mark Dayton 50% {50%} [48%] (53%) {46%} [48%] (44%) / 47% {47%} [46%] (43%) {45%} [39%] (45%) {+3%}
• Tom Emmer 48% {46%} [46%] (40%) {43%} [45%] (38%) / 47% {48%} [42%] (50%) {40%} [31%] (26%) {+1%}
• Tom Horner 31% {50%} [50%] (35%) / 58% {40%} [33%] (36%) {-27%}

How would you rate the job Tim Pawlenty has been doing as Governor?

• Strongly approve 27% {24%} [24%] (25%) {24%} [22%]
• Somewhat approve 22% {25%} [28%] (23%) {25%} [30%]
• Somewhat disapprove 12% {14%} [16%] (13%) {17%} [10%]
• Strongly disapprove 37% {34%} [31%] (37%) {32%} [36%]

Survey of 750 likely voters was conducted October 20, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points. Party ID breakdown: 42% {37%} [37%] Democrat; 37% {38%} [36%] Republican; 21% {26%} [27%] Independent/Other. Results from the poll conducted October 6, 2010 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 22, 2010 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted August 12, 2010 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted July 19, 2010 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted May 24, 2010 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted March 10, 2010 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: SurveyUSA Minnesota Gubernatorial Survey

SurveyUSA Minnesota Gubernatorial Survey

• Mark Dayton (D) 42% {38%} [46%] (38%)
• Tom Emmer (R) 37% {36%} [32%] (35%)
• Tom Horner (I) 14% {18%} [9%] (12%)
• Undecided 7% {4%} [13%] (15%)

Survey of 712 likely voters was conducted October 11-13, 2010.  The margin of error is +/- 3.7 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted September 12-14, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 2-4, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted June 14-16, 2010 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Rasmussen Minnesota Gubernatorial Survey

Rasmussen Minnesota Gubernatorial Survey

• Mark Dayton (D) 40% [34%] (45%) {40%} [35%] (38%)
• Tom Emmer (R) 38% [36%] (36%) {36%} [37%] (35%)
• Tom Horner (I) 15% [18%] (10%) {10%} [12%] (7%)
• Not sure 5% [8%] (10%) {14%} [16%] (20%)

Among Voters Certain of Their Vote

• Mark Dayton (D) 47% [47%]
• Tom Emmer (R) 45% [44%]
• Tom Horner (I) 8% [9%]

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Tom Horner 50% [50%] (35%) / 40% [33%] (36%) {+10%}
• Mark Dayton 50% [48%] (53%) {46%} [48%] (44%) / 47% [46%] (43%) {45%} [39%] (45%) {+3%}
• Tom Emmer 46% [46%] (40%) {43%} [45%] (38%) / 48% [42%] (50%) {40%} [31%] (26%) {-2%}

How would you rate the job Tim Pawlenty has been doing as Governor?

• Strongly approve 24% [24%] (25%) {24%} [22%]
• Somewhat approve 25% [28%] (23%) {25%} [30%]
• Somewhat disapprove 14% [16%] (13%) {17%} [10%]
• Strongly disapprove 34% [31%] (37%) {32%} [36%]

How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President?

• Strongly approve 30% [28%] (28%) {32%} [36%] (31%)
• Somewhat approve 20% [20%] (19%) {17%} [17%] (18%)
• Somewhat disapprove 8% [9%] (11%) {12%} [12%] (11%)
• Strongly disapprove 41% [43%] (41%) {38%} [34%] (38%)

Survey of 500 likely voters was conducted October 6, 2010.  The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points.  Party ID breakdown: 38% [36%] Republican; 37% [37%] Democrat; 26% [27%] Independent/Other.  Results from the poll conducted September 22, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 12, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted July 19, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 24, 2010 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted March 10, 2010 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:

Emmer and Dayton receive 82% support from voters in their respective parties. Among voters not affiliated with either major political party, 34% support Dayton, 31% back Horner and 27% put their vote behind Emmer.

Poll Watch: MPR/Humphrey Institute Minnesota Gubernatorial Survey

MPR/Humphrey Institute Minnesota Gubernatorial Survey

• Mark Dayton (D) 38% [34%] {35%}
• Tom Emmer (R) 27% [34%] {31%} 
• Tom Horner (I) 16% [13%] {9%}
• Don't know 20% [19%] {14%}

Among Democrats

• Mark Dayton (D) 68%
• Tom Horner (I) 10%
• Tom Emmer (R) 2%
• Don't know 20%

Among Republicans

• Tom Emmer (R) 59%
• Tom Horner (I) 22%
• Mark Dayton (D) 6%
• Don't know 14%

Among Independents

• Tom Emmer (R) 26%
• Tom Horner (I) 21%
• Mark Dayton (D) 16%
• Don't know 38%

Survey of 750 likely voters was conducted September 22-26, 2010.  The margin of error is +/- 3.6 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted August 25-29, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 13-16, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Party ID breakdown: 48% Democrat; 38% Republican; 12% Independent.

Poll Watch: Minneapolis Star Tribune Minnesota Gubernatorial Survey

Minneapolis Star Tribune Minnesota Gubernatorial Survey

• Mark Dayton (D) 39% [40%]
• Tom Emmer (R) 30% [30%]
• Tom Horner (I) 18% [13%]
• Don't know 12% [17%]

Among Men

• Tom Emmer (R) 35%
• Mark Dayton (D) 34%
• Tom Horner (I) 17% 
• Don't know 13%

Among Women

• Mark Dayton (D) 44%
• Tom Emmer (R) 26%
• Tom Horner (I) 19%
• Don't know 11%

What if there were only two candidates on the ballot for governor and you had to choose between...

• Mark Dayton (D) 49%
• Tom Emmer (R) 38%
• Undecided/Other 13%

Among Tom Horner Supporters

• Mark Dayton (D) 42%
• Tom Emmer (R) 31%
• Undecided/Other 27%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Mark Dayton 51% / 38% {+13%}
• Tom Horner 38% / 28% {+10%}
• Tom Emmer 40% / 41% {-1%}

Survey of 949 likely voters was conducted September 20-23, 2010.  The margin of error is +/- 4.1 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted July 26-29, 2010 are in square brackets.

Poll Watch: Rasmussen Minnesota Gubernatorial Survey

Rasmussen Minnesota Gubernatorial Survey

• Tom Emmer (R) 36% (36%) {36%} [37%] (35%)
• Mark Dayton (D) 34% (45%) {40%} [35%] (38%)
• Tom Horner (I) 18% (10%) {10%} [12%] (7%)
• Not sure 8% (10%) {14%} [16%] (20%)

With Leaners

• Tom Emmer (R) 42%
• Mark Dayton (D) 41%
• Tom Horner (I) 9%
• Other 6%
• Not sure 2%

Among Voters Certain of Their Vote

• Mark Dayton (D) 47%
• Tom Emmer (R) 44%
• Tom Horner (I) 9%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Tom Horner 50% (35%) / 33% (36%) {+17%}
• Tom Emmer 46% (40%) {43%} [45%] (38%) / 42% (50%) {40%} [31%] (26%) {+4%}
• Mark Dayton 48% (53%) {46%} [48%] (44%) / 46% (43%) {45%} [39%] (45%) {+2%}

How would you rate the job Tim Pawlenty has been doing as Governor?

• Strongly approve 24% (25%) {24%} [22%]
• Somewhat approve 28% (23%) {25%} [30%]
• Somewhat disapprove 16% (13%) {17%} [10%]
• Strongly disapprove 31% (37%) {32%} [36%]

How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President?

• Strongly approve 28% (28%) {32%} [36%] (31%)
• Somewhat approve 20% (19%) {17%} [17%] (18%)
• Somewhat disapprove 9% (11%) {12%} [12%] (11%)
• Strongly disapprove 43% (41%) {38%} [34%] (38%)

Survey of 500 likely voters was conducted September 22, 2010.  The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points.  Party ID breakdown: 37% Democrat; 36% Republican; 27% Independent/Other.  Results from the poll conducted August 12, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted July 19, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 24, 2010 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted March 10, 2010 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:

Eighty-eight percent (88%) of Minnesota Republicans support Emmer. Dayton has the backing of 82% of the state’s Democrats. Horner is favored by three percent (3%) of GOP voters and 10% of Democrats.

Among voters not affiliated with either of the major parties, 32% favor Emmer, 33% Dayton and 17% Horner.