Saturday, December 22, 2012

Poll Watch: Harper (R) 2016 Republican Presidential Primary Survey

Harper Polling (R) 2016 GOP Presidential Primary Poll 
  • Marco Rubio 34% 
  • Chris Christie 18% 
  • Condoleezza Rice 14% 
  • Rand Paul 8% 
  • Allen West 5% 
  • Scott Brown 3% 
  • Undecided 18% 
National survey of 2,746 likely Republican primary voters was conducted December 19, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 1.87 percentage points. Gender: 48% Male; 52% Female.  Region: 39% South; 24% Midwest; 19% Northeast; 18% West. Age 66+: 49%; Age 55-65: 23%; Age 46-55: 16%; Age 36-45: 7%; Age 18-35: 5%.  Watch Fox News: 80% Yes; 20% No. Support goals of Tea Party movement: 58% Yes; 13% No; 29% Not sure.

Inside the numbers: 
Rubio is strongest in the South and West. In the Northeast, he and Christie run virtually tied at 29-27%. The Midwest may ultimately be the harder nut to crack for Rubio. His working class background may be his strongest connection to the industrial Midwest.
The Chris Christie primary voter appears to lean more toward the middle. Along with Condi Rice, his voters are more likely to support exceptions to the no-new-taxes pledge and they believe that compromise is better for the country. They are less likely to watch Fox News and support TEA party goals.
Allen West and Rand Paul voters in a hypothetical 2016 primary are the strongest supporters of the no-new-taxes pledge at 62% and 60%, respectively. Chris Christie and Condi Rice voters are the most open to exceptions at 44% and 40%, respectively.
Speaking of the TEA party. It is the foundation of Rubio’s support. Approaching half of all TEA supporters (43%) are voting for him.
Rice and Scott Brown are the only candidates who do better among women than men.

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