Poll Watch: Harper (R) Iowa 2016 Republican Caucus Survey

Harper Polling (R) Iowa 2016 GOP Caucus Poll 

• Marco Rubio 26.50% 
• Paul Ryan 18.00% 
• Rick Santorum 13.50%
• Rand Paul 12.50% 
• Chris Christie 12.00%
• Scott Walker 2.50%
• Not sure 15.00% 

Survey of ~200 likely 2016 Republican caucus attendees was conducted January 29, 2013.  Click here to view crosstabs.

Inside the numbers:

Among Republicans who have previously attended a caucus, Rubio leads Ryan 29%-21%. However, among Republicans who plan to attend their first caucus in 2016, Ryan’s support drops to 7%. Paul (22%) and Santorum (19%) fill the void.

Among voters who consider themselves “Very Conservative”, Rubio leads with 32% followed by Ryan at 18%, Santorum at 15%, and Paul at 14%. Among the “Somewhat Conservative”, Rubio’s lead over Ryan shrinks to 3% (25%-22%).

The gender splits are revealing. Paul scores 17% among Men but his support drops to 8% among Women. Ryan seems a similar drop among Women (14%) compared to Men (22%). Conversely, Santorum (15% with Women, 12% with Men) and Christie (13% with Women, 11% with Men) do slightly better with Women.

Paul’s support jumps among 18 to 35 year olds. He leads among these younger voters with 24%, followed by Ryan (21%), Rubio (18%) and Christie (16%).

Among those voting for Congressman Steve King over Congressman Tom Latham in a Senate primary, Rubio leads with 25%, followed by Santorum and Ryan at 18% each. Among Latham voters, Rubio leads with 36%, followed by Christie at 21% and Ryan at 19%.