Poll Watch: PPP (D) North Carolina 2014 Republican Senatorial Primary Survey

PPP (D) North Carolina 2014 GOP Senate Primary Poll

• Thom Tillis 40% {46%} (18%) [14%] {20%}
• Greg Brannon 28% {20%} (15%) [14%] {13%}
• Mark Harris 15% {11%} (11%) [7%] {8%}
• Heather Grant 4% {5%} (7%) [11%] {13%}
• Ted Alexander 2% {2%} (6%) [7%] {10%}
• Jim Snyder 1% {3%} (2%) [4%]
• Edward Kryn 1% {2%} (1%) [1%] {2%}
• Alex Bradshaw 0% {1%} (5%) [6%]
• Undecided 11% {12%} (34%) [36%] {34%}

If there was a runoff election for the Republican Senate nomination between Thom Tillis and Greg Brannon, who would you vote for? 

• Thom Tillis 46% {50%}
• Greg Brannon 40% {32%}
• Not sure 14% {18%}

If there was a runoff election for the Republican Senate nomination between Thom Tillis and Mark Harris, who would you vote for?

• Thom Tillis 49% {53%}
• Mark Harris 34% {27%}
• Not sure 16% {20%}

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Greg Brannon 51% {47%} (18%) [13%] {15%} / 15% {15%} (13%) [17%] {17%} {+36%}
• Mark Harris 43% {41%} (15%) [12%] {10%} / 15% {15%} (15%) [15%] {18%} {+28%}
• Thom Tillis 52% {56%} (31%) [24%] {21%} / 29% {24%} (29%) [28%] {24%} {+23%}
• Heather Grant 21% {25%} (7%) [8%] {7%} / 16% {17%} (15%) [18%] {17%} {+5%}
• Jim Snyder 16% {19%} (4%) [7%] / 16% {18%} (12%) [15%] {0%}
• Ted Alexander 15% {17%} (6%) [6%] {7%} / 15% {15%} (12%) [17%] {18%} {0%}
• Edward Kryn 11% {16%} (4%) [4%] {3%} / 14% {17%} (12%) [17%] {17%} {-3%}
• Alex Bradshaw 11% {17%} (4%) [7%] / 16% {16%} (14%) [14%] {-5%} 

Survey of 925 likely GOP primary voters was conducted May 3-4, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 3.2 percentage points. Ideology: 45% {45%} (39%) [37%] {35%} Very conservative; 31% {35%} (32%) [35%] {33%} Somewhat conservative; 12% {13%} (21%) [20%] {22%} Moderate; 3% {4%} (6%) [4%] {7%} Somewhat liberal; 2% {4%} (3%) [3%] {3%} Very liberal. Results from the poll conducted April 26-28, 2014 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 3-6, 2014 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted March 6-9, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted February 6-9, 2014 are in curly brackets.

Poll Watch: PPP (D) North Carolina 2014 Republican Senatorial Primary Survey

PPP (D) North Carolina 2014 GOP Senate Primary Poll

• Thom Tillis 46% (18%) [14%] {20%}
• Greg Brannon 20% (15%) [14%] {13%}
• Mark Harris 11% (11%) [7%] {8%}
• Heather Grant 5% (7%) [11%] {13%}
• Jim Snyder 3% (2%) [4%]
• Edward Kryn 2% (1%) [1%] {2%}
• Ted Alexander 2% (6%) [7%] {10%}
• Alex Bradshaw 1% (5%) [6%]
• Undecided 12% (34%) [36%] {34%}

If there was a runoff election for the Republican Senate nomination between Thom Tillis and Greg Brannon, who would you vote for? 

• Thom Tillis 50%
• Greg Brannon 32%
• Not sure 18%

If there was a runoff election for the Republican Senate nomination between Thom Tillis and Mark Harris, who would you vote for?

• Thom Tillis 53%
• Mark Harris 27%
• Not sure 20%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Thom Tillis 56% (31%) [24%] {21%} / 24% (29%) [28%] {24%} {+32%}
• Greg Brannon 47% (18%) [13%] {15%} / 15% (13%) [17%] {17%} {+32%}
• Mark Harris 41% (15%) [12%] {10%} / 15% (15%) [15%] {18%} {+26%}
• Heather Grant 25% (7%) [8%] {7%} / 17% (15%) [18%] {17%} {+8%}
• Ted Alexander 17% (6%) [6%] {7%} / 15% (12%) [17%] {18%} {+2%}
• Jim Snyder 19% (4%) [7%] / 18% (12%) [15%] {+1%}
• Alex Bradshaw 17% (4%) [7%] / 16% (14%) [14%] {+1%}
• Edward Kryn 16% (4%) [4%] {3%} / 17% (12%) [17%] {17%} {-1%}

Survey of 694 likely GOP primary voters was conducted April 26-28, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 3.7 percentage points. Ideology: 45% (39%) [37%] {35%} Very conservative; 35% (32%) [35%] {33%} Somewhat conservative; 13% (21%) [20%] {22%} Moderate; 4% (6%) [4%] {7%} Somewhat liberal; 4% (3%) [3%] {3%} Very liberal. Results from the poll conducted April 3-6, 2014 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted March 6-9, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted February 6-9, 2014 are in curly brackets.

Poll Watch: SurveyUSA North Carolina 2014 Republican Senatorial Primary Survey

SurveyUSA North Carolina 2014 GOP Senate Primary Poll

• Thom Tillis 39% {23%} [27%] (28%)
• Greg Brannon 20% {15%} [13%] (15%)
• Mark Harris 15% {11%} [9%] (6%)
• Edward Kryn 2% {2%} [0%] (3%)
• Heather Grant 2% {6%} [5%] (11%)
• Jim Snyder 2% {3%} [5%] (4%) 
• Ted Alexander 1% {6%} [1%] (7%)
• Alex Lee Bradshaw 1% {1%} [2%] (4%)
• Undecided 19% {34%} [38%] (23%)

Survey of 392 likely GOP primary voters was conducted April 16-22, 2014 for the Civitas Institute (R). The margin of error is +/- 5.1 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted March 27-31, 2014 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 19-23, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted March 17-19, 2014 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: New York Times/Kaiser North Carolina 2014 Senatorial Survey

NY Times/Kaiser North Carolina 2014 Senate Poll

• Kay Hagan (D) 42%
• Thom Tillis (R) 40%

• Kay Hagan (D) 41%
• Greg Brannon (R) 39%

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Kay Hagan is handling her job as United States Senator?

• Approve 44%
• Disapprove 44%

Survey of 900 registered voters was conducted April 8-15, 2014

Poll Watch: SurveyUSA North Carolina 2014 Senatorial Survey

SurveyUSA North Carolina 2014 Senate Poll

Among Likely Voters

• Mark Harris (R) 47%
• Kay Hagan (D) 43%

• Ted Alexander (R) 46%
• Kay Hagan (D) 44%

• Heather Grant (R) 46%
• Kay Hagan (D) 44%

• Greg Brannon (R) 47%
• Kay Hagan (D) 45%

• Thom Tillis (R) 46%
• Kay Hagan (D) 45%

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Kay Hagan is doing as United States Senator?

Among Registered Voters

• Approve 38%
• Disapprove 50%

Survey of 1.930 registered voters, including 1,489 likely voters, was conducted March 27-31, 2014 for Time Warner Cable News North Carolina. The margin of error is +/- 2.3 percentage points among registered voters; +/- 2.6 percentage points among likely voters. Party ID (among likely voters): 42% (42%) Democrat; 32% (33%) Republican; 20% (20%) Independent. Ideology: 40% (39%) Moderate; 36% (38%) Conservative; 18% (17%) Liberal.

Poll Watch: SurveyUSA North Carolina 2014 Republican Senatorial Primary Survey

SurveyUSA North Carolina 2014 GOP Senate Primary Poll

• Thom Tillis 23% [27%] (28%)
• Greg Brannon 15% [13%] (15%)
• Mark Harris 11% [9%] (6%)
• Heather Grant 6% [5%] (11%)
• Ted Alexander 6% [1%] (7%)
• Jim Snyder 3% [5%] (4%)
• Edward Kryn 2% [0%] (3%) 
• Alex Lee Bradshaw 1% [2%] (4%)
• Undecided 34% [38%] (23%)

Survey of 433 likely GOP primary voters was conducted March 27-31, 2014 for Time Warner Cable News North Carolina. The margin of error is +/- 4.8 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted March 19-23, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted March 17-19, 2014 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: SurveyUSA North Carolina 2014 Republican Senatorial Primary Survey

SurveyUSA North Carolina 2014 GOP Senate Primary Poll

• Thom Tillis 27% (28%)
• Greg Brannon 13% (15%)
• Mark Harris 9% (6%)
• Jim Snyder 5% (4%)
• Heather Grant 5% (11%)
• Alex Lee Bradshaw 2% (4%)
• Ted Alexander 1% (7%)
• Edward Kryn 0% (3%)
• Undecided 38% (23%)

Survey of 405 likely GOP primary voters was conducted March 19-23, 2014 on behalf of the Civitas Institute. The margin of error is +/- 5 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted March 17-19, 2014 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: SurveyUSA North Carolina 2014 Republican Senatorial Primary Survey

SurveyUSA North Carolina 2014 GOP Senate Primary Poll

• Thom Tillis 28%
• Greg Brannon 15%
• Heather Grant 11%
• Ted Alexander 7%
• Mark Harris 6% 
• Alex Lee Bradshaw 4%
• Jim Snyder 4%
• Edward Kryn 3%
• Undecided 23%

Survey of 405 likely GOP primary voters was conducted March 17-19, 2014 for WRAL-TV Raleigh. The margin of error is +/- 4.4 percentage points. Party ID: 90% Republican; 10% Independent.  Political ideology: 74% Conservative; 20% Moderate; 4% Liberal.