Poll Watch: PPP (D) Alaska 2014 Senatorial Survey

PPP (D) Alaska 2014 Senate Poll 

If the candidates for Senate this fall were Democrat Mark Begich, Republican Mead Treadwell, Libertarian Mark Fish, Alaska Independence Party candidate Vic Kohring, non-affiliated candidate Ted Gianoutsos, and non-affiliated candidate Sid Hill, who would you vote for?

• Mark Begich (D) 42% (41%) {43%} [44%] (47%)
• Mead Treadwell (R) 37% (33%) {37%} [40%] (39%)
• Mark Fish (L) 5%
• Vic Kohring (AIP) 3%
• Ted Gianoutsos (I) 0% (1%) {1%}
• Sidney Hill (I) 0% (2%) {1%}

Horse race, with third-party candidates asked whether they support Begich or Treadwell

• Mark Begich (D) 44%
• Mead Treadwell (R) 41%

If the candidates for Senate this fall were Democrat Mark Begich, Republican Dan Sullivan, Libertarian Mark Fish, Alaska Independence Party candidate Vic Kohring, non-affiliated candidate Ted Gianoutsos, and non-affiliated candidate Sid Hill, who would you vote for?

• Mark Begich (D) 43% (42%) {41%} [46%] (47%)
• Dan Sullivan (R) 37% (37%) {37%} [39%] (41%)
• Mark Fish (L) 4%
• Vic Kohring (AIP) 3%
• Ted Gianoutsos (I) 0% (1%) {1%}
• Sidney Hill (I) 0% (1%) {2%}

Horse race, with third-party candidates asked whether they support Begich or Sullivan

• Mark Begich (D) 45%
• Dan Sullivan (R) 41%

If the candidates for Senate this fall were Democrat Mark Begich, Republican Joe Miller, Libertarian Mark Fish, Alaska Independence Party candidate Vic Kohring, non-affiliated candidate Ted Gianoutsos, and non-affiliated candidate Sid Hill, who would you vote for?

• Mark Begich (D) 45% (43%) {45%} [55%] (58%)
• Joe Miller (R) 32% (27%) {25%} [32%] (30%)
• Mark Fish (L) 6%
• Vic Kohring (AIP) 4%
• Ted Gianoutsos (I) 1% (0%) {1%}
• Sidney Hill (I) 1% (2%) {2%}

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Mead Treadwell 38% (30%) {33%} [35%] (34%) / 32% (34%) {31%} [29%] (26%) {+6%} 
• Dan Sullivan 35% (34%) {31%} [31%] (37%) / 43% (43%) {35%} [28%] (34%) {-8%}
• Joe Miller 22% (17%) {16%} [19%] (20%) / 59% (61%) {62%} [63%] (63%) {-37%}
  

Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Mark Begich’s job performance?

• Approve 43% (44%) {43%} [42%] (49%)
• Disapprove 44% (45%) {44%} [41%] (39%)

REPUBLICAN PRIMARY

• Dan Sullivan 35% (40%) {30%} [25%]
• Mead Treadwell 29% (26%) {25%} [33%]
• Joe Miller 20% (14%) {20%} [24%]
• John Jaramillo 2% (3%) {2%}
• Undecided 14% (17%) {19%} [19%]

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Mead Treadwell 58% (46%) {51%} [50%] / 20% (23%) {20%} [19%] {+38%}
• Dan Sullivan 57% (54%) {46%} [42%] / 25% (28%) {21%} [19%] {+32%}
• Joe Miller 38% (28%) {26%} [26%] / 47% (52%) {52%} [53%] {-9%}

Survey of 673 Alaska voters, including 337 Republican primary voters, was conducted July 31 - August 3, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 3.8 percentage points among all voters; +/- 5.3 percentage points among GOP primary voters.  Party ID (among all voters): 32% (29%) {33%} [32%] (32%) Republican; 20% (18%) {20%} [20%] (21%) Democrat; 47% (53%) {46%} [48%] (46%) Independent/Other.  Ideology (among all voters): 33% (31%) {32%} [30%] (33%) Moderate; 25% (21%) {23%} [25%] (25%) Somewhat conservative; 18% (22%) {21%} [20%] (19%) Very conservative; 16% (16%) {16%} [17%] (15%) Somewhat liberal; 8% (9%) {7%} [8%] (9%) Very liberal. Results from the poll conducted May 8-11, 2014 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted January 31 - February 1, 2014 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 25-28, 2013 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 4-5, 2013 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Alaska 2014 Senatorial Survey

PPP (D) Alaska 2014 Senate Poll 

• Mark Begich (D) 42% {41%} [46%] (47%)
• Dan Sullivan (R) 37% {37%} [39%] (41%)
• Zachary Kile (AIP) 5% {6%}
• Sidney Hill (I) 1% {2%}
• Ted Gianoutsos (I) 1% {1%}

• Mark Begich (D) 41% {44%} [52%] (54%)
• Sarah Palin (R) 35% {40%} [40%] (38%)
• Zachary Kile (AIP) 6% {4%}
• Sidney Hill (I) 2% {2%}
• Ted Gianoutsos (I) 1% {1%}

• Mark Begich (D) 41% {43%} [44%] (47%)
• Mead Treadwell (R) 33% {37%} [40%] (39%)
• Zachary Kile (AIP) 6% {5%}
• Sidney Hill (I) 2% {1%}
• Ted Gianoutsos (I) 1% {1%}

• Mark Begich (D) 43% {45%} [55%] (58%)
• Joe Miller (R) 27% {25%} [32%] (30%)
• Zachary Kile (AIP) 4% {5%}
• Sidney Hill (I) 2% {2%}
• Ted Gianoutsos (I) 0% {1%} 

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Mead Treadwell 30% {33%} [35%] (34%) / 34% {31%} [29%] (26%) {-4%} 
• Dan Sullivan 34% {31%} [31%] (37%) / 43% {35%} [28%] (34%) {-9%}
• Sarah Palin 36% {39%} [39%] (34%) / 56% {55%} [58%] (59%) {-20%}
• Joe Miller 17% {16%} [19%] (20%) / 61% {62%} [63%] (63%) {-44%}
  

Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Mark Begich’s job performance?

• Approve 44% {43%} [42%] (49%)
• Disapprove 45% {44%} [41%] (39%)

REPUBLICAN PRIMARY

• Dan Sullivan 40% {30%} [25%]
• Mead Treadwell 26% {25%} [33%]
• Joe Miller 14% {20%} [24%]
• John Jaramillo 3% {2%}
• Someone else/Not sure 17% {19%} [19%]

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Dan Sullivan 54% {46%} [42%] / 28% {21%} [19%] {+26%}
• Mead Treadwell 46% {51%} [50%]/ 23% {20%} [19%] {+23%} 
• Joe Miller 28% {26%} [26%] / 52% {52%} [53%] {-24%}

Survey of 582 registered voters, including 313 Republican primary voters, was conducted May 8-11, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 4.1 percentage points among all voters; +/- 5.5 percentage points among GOP primary voters.  Party ID (among all voters): 29% {33%} [32%] (32%) Republican; 18% {20%} [20%] (21%) Democrat; 53% {46%} [48%] (46%) Independent/Other.  Ideology (among all voters): 31% {32%} [30%] (33%) Moderate; 22% {21%} [20%] (19%) Very conservative; 21% {23%} [25%] (25%) Somewhat conservative; 16% {16%} [17%] (15%) Somewhat liberal; 9% {7%} [8%] (9%) Very liberal. Results from the poll conducted January 31 - February 1, 2014 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 25-28, 2013 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 4-5, 2013 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Alaska 2014 Senatorial Survey

PPP (D) Alaska 2014 Senate Poll 

• Mark Begich (D) 41% [46%] (47%)
• Dan Sullivan (R) 37% [39%] (41%)
• Zachary Kile (AIP) 6%
• Sidney Hill (I) 2%
• Ted Gianoutsos (I) 1%

• Mark Begich (D) 44% [52%] (54%)
• Sarah Palin (R) 40% [40%] (38%)
• Zachary Kile (AIP) 4%
• Sidney Hill (I) 2%
• Ted Gianoutsos (I) 1%

• Mark Begich (D) 43% [44%] (47%)
• Mead Treadwell (R) 37% [40%] (39%)
• Zachary Kile (AIP) 5%
• Sidney Hill (I) 1%
• Ted Gianoutsos (I) 1%

• Mark Begich (D) 45% [55%] (58%)
• Joe Miller (R) 25% [32%] (30%)
• Zachary Kile (AIP) 5%
• Sidney Hill (I) 2%
• Ted Gianoutsos (I) 1% 

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Mead Treadwell 33% [35%] (34%) / 31% [29%] (26%) {+2%} 
• Dan Sullivan 31% [31%] (37%) / 35% [28%] (34%) {-4%}
• Sarah Palin 39% [39%] (34%) / 55% [58%] (59%) {-16%}
• Joe Miller 16% [19%] (20%) / 62% [63%] (63%) {-46%}
  

Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Mark Begich’s job performance?

• Approve 43% [42%] (49%)
• Disapprove 44% [41%] (39%)

GOP SENATE PRIMARY

• Dan Sullivan 30% [25%]
• Mead Treadwell 25% [33%]
• Joe Miller 20% [24%]
• Kathleen Tonn 4%
• John Jaramillo 2% 
• Someone else/Not sure 19% [19%]

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Mead Treadwell 51% [50%]/ 20% [19%] {+31%} 
• Dan Sullivan 46% [42%] / 21% [19%] {+25%}
• Joe Miller 26% [26%] / 52% [53%] {-26%}

Survey of 850 Alaska voters and 442 Republican primary voters was conducted January 31 - February 1, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 3.4 percentage points among all voters; +/- 4.7 percentage points among GOP primary voters.  Party ID (among all voters): 33% [32%] (32%) Republican; 20% [20%] (21%) Democrat; 46% [48%] (46%) Independent/Other.  Ideology (among all voters): 32% [30%] (33%) Moderate; 23% [25%] (25%) Somewhat conservative; 21% [20%] (19%) Very conservative; 16% [17%] (15%) Somewhat liberal; 7% [8%] (9%) Very liberal. Results from the poll conducted July 25-28, 2013 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 4-5, 2013 are in parentheses.