Poll Watch: PPP (D) Alaska 2014 Senatorial Survey

PPP (D) Alaska 2014 Senate Poll 

• Dan Sullivan (R) 46% {43%} [37%] (37%) {37%} [39%] (41%)
• Mark Begich (D) 45% {41%} [43%] (42%) {41%} [46%] (47%)
• Mark Fish (L) 2% {3%} [4%]
• Ted Gianoutsos (I) 2% {2%} [0%] (1%) {1%}

Horse race, with third-party supporters and undecideds asked if they lean Begich or Sullivan:

• Dan Sullivan (R) 47% {45%} [41%]
• Mark Begich (D) 46% {42%} [45%]

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Dan Sullivan 43% {44%} [35%] (34%) {31%} [31%] (37%) / 45% {42%} [43%] (43%) {35%} [28%] (34%) {-2%}

Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Mark Begich’s job performance?

• Approve 43% {42%} [43%] (44%) {43%} [42%] (49%)
• Disapprove 50% {51%} [44%] (45%) {44%} [41%] (39%)

Survey of 1,052 likely voters was conducted November 1-2, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 3.0 percentage points.  Party ID: 34% {28%} [32%] (29%) {33%} [32%] (32%) Republican; 20% {16%} [20%] (18%) {20%} [20%] (21%) Democrat; 46% {56%} [47%] (53%) {46%} [48%] (46%) Independent/Other.  Ideology: 30% {33%} [33%] (31%) {32%} [30%] (33%) Moderate; 27% {28%} [25%] (21%) {23%} [25%] (25%) Somewhat conservative; 18% {17%} [18%] (22%) {21%} [20%] (19%) Very conservative; 16% {15%} [16%] (16%) {16%} [17%] (15%) Somewhat liberal; 10% {7%} [8%] (9%) {7%} [8%] (9%) Very liberal. Results from the poll conducted September 18-21, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted July 31 - August 3, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted May 8-11, 2014 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted January 31 - February 1, 2014 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 25-28, 2013 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 4-5, 2013 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Fox News Alaska 2014 Senatorial Survey

Fox News Alaska 2014 Senate Poll 

• Dan Sullivan (R) 44%
• Mark Begich (D) 40%
• Mark Fish (L) 3%
• Ted Gianoutsos (I) 1%

Among Men

• Dan Sullivan (R) 48%
• Mark Begich (D) 34%
• Mark Fish (L) 3%
• Ted Gianoutsos (I) 1%

Among Women

• Mark Begich (D) 46%
• Dan Sullivan (R) 41%
• Mark Fish (L) 2%
• Ted Gianoutsos (I) 2%

Survey of 706 likely voters was conducted October 4-7, 2014 under the joint direction of Anderson Robbins Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R). The margin of error is +/- 3.5 percentage points.  Party ID: 38% Republican; 25% Democrat; 33% Independent/Other. 

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Alaska 2014 Senatorial Survey

PPP (D) Alaska 2014 Senate Poll 

• Dan Sullivan (R) 43% [37%] (37%) {37%} [39%] (41%)
• Mark Begich (D) 41% [43%] (42%) {41%} [46%] (47%)
• Mark Fish (L) 3% [4%]
• Ted Gianoutsos (I) 2% [0%] (1%) {1%}

Horse race, with third-party supporters asked if they lean Begich or Sullivan

• Dan Sullivan (R) 45% [41%]
• Mark Begich (D) 42% [45%]

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Dan Sullivan 44% [35%] (34%) {31%} [31%] (37%) / 42% [43%] (43%) {35%} [28%] (34%) {+2%}

Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Mark Begich’s job performance?

• Approve 42% [43%] (44%) {43%} [42%] (49%)
• Disapprove 51% [44%] (45%) {44%} [41%] (39%)

Survey of 880 likely voters was conducted September 18-21, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 3.3 percentage points.  Party ID: 28% [32%] (29%) {33%} [32%] (32%) Republican; 16% [20%] (18%) {20%} [20%] (21%) Democrat; 56% [47%] (53%) {46%} [48%] (46%) Independent/Other.  Ideology: 33% [33%] (31%) {32%} [30%] (33%) Moderate; 28% [25%] (21%) {23%} [25%] (25%) Somewhat conservative; 17% [18%] (22%) {21%} [20%] (19%) Very conservative; 15% [16%] (16%) {16%} [17%] (15%) Somewhat liberal; 7% [8%] (9%) {7%} [8%] (9%) Very liberal. Results from the poll conducted July 31 - August 3, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted May 8-11, 2014 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted January 31 - February 1, 2014 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 25-28, 2013 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 4-5, 2013 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Alaska 2014 Senatorial Survey

PPP (D) Alaska 2014 Senate Poll 

If the candidates for Senate this fall were Democrat Mark Begich, Republican Mead Treadwell, Libertarian Mark Fish, Alaska Independence Party candidate Vic Kohring, non-affiliated candidate Ted Gianoutsos, and non-affiliated candidate Sid Hill, who would you vote for?

• Mark Begich (D) 42% (41%) {43%} [44%] (47%)
• Mead Treadwell (R) 37% (33%) {37%} [40%] (39%)
• Mark Fish (L) 5%
• Vic Kohring (AIP) 3%
• Ted Gianoutsos (I) 0% (1%) {1%}
• Sidney Hill (I) 0% (2%) {1%}

Horse race, with third-party candidates asked whether they support Begich or Treadwell

• Mark Begich (D) 44%
• Mead Treadwell (R) 41%

If the candidates for Senate this fall were Democrat Mark Begich, Republican Dan Sullivan, Libertarian Mark Fish, Alaska Independence Party candidate Vic Kohring, non-affiliated candidate Ted Gianoutsos, and non-affiliated candidate Sid Hill, who would you vote for?

• Mark Begich (D) 43% (42%) {41%} [46%] (47%)
• Dan Sullivan (R) 37% (37%) {37%} [39%] (41%)
• Mark Fish (L) 4%
• Vic Kohring (AIP) 3%
• Ted Gianoutsos (I) 0% (1%) {1%}
• Sidney Hill (I) 0% (1%) {2%}

Horse race, with third-party candidates asked whether they support Begich or Sullivan

• Mark Begich (D) 45%
• Dan Sullivan (R) 41%

If the candidates for Senate this fall were Democrat Mark Begich, Republican Joe Miller, Libertarian Mark Fish, Alaska Independence Party candidate Vic Kohring, non-affiliated candidate Ted Gianoutsos, and non-affiliated candidate Sid Hill, who would you vote for?

• Mark Begich (D) 45% (43%) {45%} [55%] (58%)
• Joe Miller (R) 32% (27%) {25%} [32%] (30%)
• Mark Fish (L) 6%
• Vic Kohring (AIP) 4%
• Ted Gianoutsos (I) 1% (0%) {1%}
• Sidney Hill (I) 1% (2%) {2%}

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Mead Treadwell 38% (30%) {33%} [35%] (34%) / 32% (34%) {31%} [29%] (26%) {+6%} 
• Dan Sullivan 35% (34%) {31%} [31%] (37%) / 43% (43%) {35%} [28%] (34%) {-8%}
• Joe Miller 22% (17%) {16%} [19%] (20%) / 59% (61%) {62%} [63%] (63%) {-37%}
  

Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Mark Begich’s job performance?

• Approve 43% (44%) {43%} [42%] (49%)
• Disapprove 44% (45%) {44%} [41%] (39%)

REPUBLICAN PRIMARY

• Dan Sullivan 35% (40%) {30%} [25%]
• Mead Treadwell 29% (26%) {25%} [33%]
• Joe Miller 20% (14%) {20%} [24%]
• John Jaramillo 2% (3%) {2%}
• Undecided 14% (17%) {19%} [19%]

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Mead Treadwell 58% (46%) {51%} [50%] / 20% (23%) {20%} [19%] {+38%}
• Dan Sullivan 57% (54%) {46%} [42%] / 25% (28%) {21%} [19%] {+32%}
• Joe Miller 38% (28%) {26%} [26%] / 47% (52%) {52%} [53%] {-9%}

Survey of 673 Alaska voters, including 337 Republican primary voters, was conducted July 31 - August 3, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 3.8 percentage points among all voters; +/- 5.3 percentage points among GOP primary voters.  Party ID (among all voters): 32% (29%) {33%} [32%] (32%) Republican; 20% (18%) {20%} [20%] (21%) Democrat; 47% (53%) {46%} [48%] (46%) Independent/Other.  Ideology (among all voters): 33% (31%) {32%} [30%] (33%) Moderate; 25% (21%) {23%} [25%] (25%) Somewhat conservative; 18% (22%) {21%} [20%] (19%) Very conservative; 16% (16%) {16%} [17%] (15%) Somewhat liberal; 8% (9%) {7%} [8%] (9%) Very liberal. Results from the poll conducted May 8-11, 2014 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted January 31 - February 1, 2014 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 25-28, 2013 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 4-5, 2013 are in parentheses.