Poll Watch: PPP (D) Alaska 2014 Senatorial Survey

PPP (D) Alaska 2014 Senate Poll 

If the candidates for Senate this fall were Democrat Mark Begich, Republican Mead Treadwell, Libertarian Mark Fish, Alaska Independence Party candidate Vic Kohring, non-affiliated candidate Ted Gianoutsos, and non-affiliated candidate Sid Hill, who would you vote for?

• Mark Begich (D) 42% (41%) {43%} [44%] (47%)
• Mead Treadwell (R) 37% (33%) {37%} [40%] (39%)
• Mark Fish (L) 5%
• Vic Kohring (AIP) 3%
• Ted Gianoutsos (I) 0% (1%) {1%}
• Sidney Hill (I) 0% (2%) {1%}

Horse race, with third-party candidates asked whether they support Begich or Treadwell

• Mark Begich (D) 44%
• Mead Treadwell (R) 41%

If the candidates for Senate this fall were Democrat Mark Begich, Republican Dan Sullivan, Libertarian Mark Fish, Alaska Independence Party candidate Vic Kohring, non-affiliated candidate Ted Gianoutsos, and non-affiliated candidate Sid Hill, who would you vote for?

• Mark Begich (D) 43% (42%) {41%} [46%] (47%)
• Dan Sullivan (R) 37% (37%) {37%} [39%] (41%)
• Mark Fish (L) 4%
• Vic Kohring (AIP) 3%
• Ted Gianoutsos (I) 0% (1%) {1%}
• Sidney Hill (I) 0% (1%) {2%}

Horse race, with third-party candidates asked whether they support Begich or Sullivan

• Mark Begich (D) 45%
• Dan Sullivan (R) 41%

If the candidates for Senate this fall were Democrat Mark Begich, Republican Joe Miller, Libertarian Mark Fish, Alaska Independence Party candidate Vic Kohring, non-affiliated candidate Ted Gianoutsos, and non-affiliated candidate Sid Hill, who would you vote for?

• Mark Begich (D) 45% (43%) {45%} [55%] (58%)
• Joe Miller (R) 32% (27%) {25%} [32%] (30%)
• Mark Fish (L) 6%
• Vic Kohring (AIP) 4%
• Ted Gianoutsos (I) 1% (0%) {1%}
• Sidney Hill (I) 1% (2%) {2%}

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Mead Treadwell 38% (30%) {33%} [35%] (34%) / 32% (34%) {31%} [29%] (26%) {+6%} 
• Dan Sullivan 35% (34%) {31%} [31%] (37%) / 43% (43%) {35%} [28%] (34%) {-8%}
• Joe Miller 22% (17%) {16%} [19%] (20%) / 59% (61%) {62%} [63%] (63%) {-37%}
  

Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Mark Begich’s job performance?

• Approve 43% (44%) {43%} [42%] (49%)
• Disapprove 44% (45%) {44%} [41%] (39%)

REPUBLICAN PRIMARY

• Dan Sullivan 35% (40%) {30%} [25%]
• Mead Treadwell 29% (26%) {25%} [33%]
• Joe Miller 20% (14%) {20%} [24%]
• John Jaramillo 2% (3%) {2%}
• Undecided 14% (17%) {19%} [19%]

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Mead Treadwell 58% (46%) {51%} [50%] / 20% (23%) {20%} [19%] {+38%}
• Dan Sullivan 57% (54%) {46%} [42%] / 25% (28%) {21%} [19%] {+32%}
• Joe Miller 38% (28%) {26%} [26%] / 47% (52%) {52%} [53%] {-9%}

Survey of 673 Alaska voters, including 337 Republican primary voters, was conducted July 31 - August 3, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 3.8 percentage points among all voters; +/- 5.3 percentage points among GOP primary voters.  Party ID (among all voters): 32% (29%) {33%} [32%] (32%) Republican; 20% (18%) {20%} [20%] (21%) Democrat; 47% (53%) {46%} [48%] (46%) Independent/Other.  Ideology (among all voters): 33% (31%) {32%} [30%] (33%) Moderate; 25% (21%) {23%} [25%] (25%) Somewhat conservative; 18% (22%) {21%} [20%] (19%) Very conservative; 16% (16%) {16%} [17%] (15%) Somewhat liberal; 8% (9%) {7%} [8%] (9%) Very liberal. Results from the poll conducted May 8-11, 2014 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted January 31 - February 1, 2014 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 25-28, 2013 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 4-5, 2013 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Moore Information (R) Alaska 2014 Senatorial Survey

Moore Information (R) Alaska 2014 Senate Poll

REPUBLICAN PRIMARY

Among Registered GOP Primary Voters

• Dan Sullivan 36% (38%)
• Mead Treadwell 27% (22%)
• Joe Miller 13% (12%)

Among Likely GOP Primary Voters

• Dan Sullivan 43%
• Mead Treadwell 25%
• Joe Miller 15%

GENERAL ELECTION

• Mark Begich (D) 43% (44%) 
• Dan Sullivan (R) 43% (42%)

Survey of 500 registered voters, including a subsample of GOP primary voters, was conducted June 16-18, 2014.  The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted April 27-28, 2014 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Vox Populi/Daller Caller (R) Alaska 2014 Republican Senatorial Primary Survey

Vox Populi/Daller Caller (R) Alaska 2014 GOP Senate Primary Poll

• Dan Sullivan 32%
• Mead Treadwell 23%
• Joe Miller 15%
• Undecided/Another candidate 31%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Mead Treadwell 44% / 16% {+28%}
• Dan Sullivan 41% / 28% {+13%}
  
• Joe Miller 24% / 52% {-28%}

Survey of 619 likely Republican voters was conducted June 5-9, 2014.

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Alaska 2014 Senatorial Survey

PPP (D) Alaska 2014 Senate Poll 

• Mark Begich (D) 42% {41%} [46%] (47%)
• Dan Sullivan (R) 37% {37%} [39%] (41%)
• Zachary Kile (AIP) 5% {6%}
• Sidney Hill (I) 1% {2%}
• Ted Gianoutsos (I) 1% {1%}

• Mark Begich (D) 41% {44%} [52%] (54%)
• Sarah Palin (R) 35% {40%} [40%] (38%)
• Zachary Kile (AIP) 6% {4%}
• Sidney Hill (I) 2% {2%}
• Ted Gianoutsos (I) 1% {1%}

• Mark Begich (D) 41% {43%} [44%] (47%)
• Mead Treadwell (R) 33% {37%} [40%] (39%)
• Zachary Kile (AIP) 6% {5%}
• Sidney Hill (I) 2% {1%}
• Ted Gianoutsos (I) 1% {1%}

• Mark Begich (D) 43% {45%} [55%] (58%)
• Joe Miller (R) 27% {25%} [32%] (30%)
• Zachary Kile (AIP) 4% {5%}
• Sidney Hill (I) 2% {2%}
• Ted Gianoutsos (I) 0% {1%} 

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Mead Treadwell 30% {33%} [35%] (34%) / 34% {31%} [29%] (26%) {-4%} 
• Dan Sullivan 34% {31%} [31%] (37%) / 43% {35%} [28%] (34%) {-9%}
• Sarah Palin 36% {39%} [39%] (34%) / 56% {55%} [58%] (59%) {-20%}
• Joe Miller 17% {16%} [19%] (20%) / 61% {62%} [63%] (63%) {-44%}
  

Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Mark Begich’s job performance?

• Approve 44% {43%} [42%] (49%)
• Disapprove 45% {44%} [41%] (39%)

REPUBLICAN PRIMARY

• Dan Sullivan 40% {30%} [25%]
• Mead Treadwell 26% {25%} [33%]
• Joe Miller 14% {20%} [24%]
• John Jaramillo 3% {2%}
• Someone else/Not sure 17% {19%} [19%]

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Dan Sullivan 54% {46%} [42%] / 28% {21%} [19%] {+26%}
• Mead Treadwell 46% {51%} [50%]/ 23% {20%} [19%] {+23%} 
• Joe Miller 28% {26%} [26%] / 52% {52%} [53%] {-24%}

Survey of 582 registered voters, including 313 Republican primary voters, was conducted May 8-11, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 4.1 percentage points among all voters; +/- 5.5 percentage points among GOP primary voters.  Party ID (among all voters): 29% {33%} [32%] (32%) Republican; 18% {20%} [20%] (21%) Democrat; 53% {46%} [48%] (46%) Independent/Other.  Ideology (among all voters): 31% {32%} [30%] (33%) Moderate; 22% {21%} [20%] (19%) Very conservative; 21% {23%} [25%] (25%) Somewhat conservative; 16% {16%} [17%] (15%) Somewhat liberal; 9% {7%} [8%] (9%) Very liberal. Results from the poll conducted January 31 - February 1, 2014 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 25-28, 2013 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 4-5, 2013 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Moore Information (R) Alaska 2014 Senatorial Survey

Moore Information (R) Alaska 2014 Senate Poll

REPUBLICAN PRIMARY

• Dan Sullivan 38%
• Mead Treadwell 22%
• Joe Miller 12%
  

GENERAL ELECTION

• Mark Begich (D) 44% 
• Dan Sullivan (R) 42%

Survey of 500 registered voters, including a subsample of GOP primary voters, was conducted April 27-28, 2014.  The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points.

Poll Watch: Rasmussen (R) Alaska 2014 Senatorial Survey

Rasmussen (R) Alaska 2014 Senate Poll 

• Mead Treadwell (R) 47%
• Mark Begich (D) 43%

• Dan Sullivan (R) 44%
• Mark Begich (D) 44%

• Mark Begich (D) 49%
• Joe Miller (R) 38%

Survey of 750 likely voters was conducted March 19-20, 2014.  The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points.

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Alaska 2014 Senatorial Survey

PPP (D) Alaska 2014 Senate Poll 

• Mark Begich (D) 41% [46%] (47%)
• Dan Sullivan (R) 37% [39%] (41%)
• Zachary Kile (AIP) 6%
• Sidney Hill (I) 2%
• Ted Gianoutsos (I) 1%

• Mark Begich (D) 44% [52%] (54%)
• Sarah Palin (R) 40% [40%] (38%)
• Zachary Kile (AIP) 4%
• Sidney Hill (I) 2%
• Ted Gianoutsos (I) 1%

• Mark Begich (D) 43% [44%] (47%)
• Mead Treadwell (R) 37% [40%] (39%)
• Zachary Kile (AIP) 5%
• Sidney Hill (I) 1%
• Ted Gianoutsos (I) 1%

• Mark Begich (D) 45% [55%] (58%)
• Joe Miller (R) 25% [32%] (30%)
• Zachary Kile (AIP) 5%
• Sidney Hill (I) 2%
• Ted Gianoutsos (I) 1% 

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Mead Treadwell 33% [35%] (34%) / 31% [29%] (26%) {+2%} 
• Dan Sullivan 31% [31%] (37%) / 35% [28%] (34%) {-4%}
• Sarah Palin 39% [39%] (34%) / 55% [58%] (59%) {-16%}
• Joe Miller 16% [19%] (20%) / 62% [63%] (63%) {-46%}
  

Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Mark Begich’s job performance?

• Approve 43% [42%] (49%)
• Disapprove 44% [41%] (39%)

GOP SENATE PRIMARY

• Dan Sullivan 30% [25%]
• Mead Treadwell 25% [33%]
• Joe Miller 20% [24%]
• Kathleen Tonn 4%
• John Jaramillo 2% 
• Someone else/Not sure 19% [19%]

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Mead Treadwell 51% [50%]/ 20% [19%] {+31%} 
• Dan Sullivan 46% [42%] / 21% [19%] {+25%}
• Joe Miller 26% [26%] / 52% [53%] {-26%}

Survey of 850 Alaska voters and 442 Republican primary voters was conducted January 31 - February 1, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 3.4 percentage points among all voters; +/- 4.7 percentage points among GOP primary voters.  Party ID (among all voters): 33% [32%] (32%) Republican; 20% [20%] (21%) Democrat; 46% [48%] (46%) Independent/Other.  Ideology (among all voters): 32% [30%] (33%) Moderate; 23% [25%] (25%) Somewhat conservative; 21% [20%] (19%) Very conservative; 16% [17%] (15%) Somewhat liberal; 7% [8%] (9%) Very liberal. Results from the poll conducted July 25-28, 2013 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 4-5, 2013 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Dittman Research Alaska Political Survey

Dittman Research Alaska Political Survey

Overall, would you say you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of former U.S. Senate candidate Joe Miller? …and is that very or just somewhat?

• Very favorable 6%
• Somewhat favorable 12%
• Somewhat unfavorable 20%
• Very unfavorable 53%

• Total Favorable: 18%
• Total Unfavorable: 73%

And what about former Governor Sarah Palin, would you say you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of her? …and is that very or just somewhat?

• Very favorable 13% (20%)
• Somewhat favorable 23% (26%)
• Somewhat unfavorable 22% (21%)
• Very unfavorable 39% (31%)

• Total Favorable: 36% (46%)
• Total Unfavorable: 61% (52%)

How would you rate the job Senator Mark Begich is doing….would you say: excellent, good, not very good, or poor?

• Excellent 9%
• Good 48%
• Not very good 17%
• Poor 16%

• Excellent/Good: 57%
• Not very good/Poor: 33%

How would you rate the job Senator Lisa Murkowski is doing?

• Excellent 16%
• Good 55%
• Not very good 15%
• Poor 12%

• Excellent/Good: 71%
• Not very good/Poor: 27%

How would you rate the job Congressman Don Young is doing?

• Excellent 12%
• Good 51%
• Not very good 20%
• Poor 12%

• Excellent/Good: 63%
• Not very good/Poor: 32%

Survey of 400 Alaskans was conducted March 3 - 17, 2011. The margin of error is ± 4.9 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted April 2010 are in parentheses.

Kondracke Smacks Down DeMint & Palin; Calls Former AK Gov a 'Joke'

POLITICO reports:

At the Roll Call/CQ election analysis session at the Ronald Reagan Building this morning, Roll Call Executive Editor and Fox News contributor Mort Kondracke blamed Sarah Palin and Jim DeMint for Republicans' failure to capture the Senate.

“The people who got slapped the hardest in this election — besides Nancy Pelosi and Barack Obama — are Jim DeMint and Sarah Palin,” he said. “Jim DeMint and Sarah Palin are responsible for the fact that the Senate did not go Republican. They’re the ones who are responsible for Christine O’Donnell. They’re the ones who are responsible for Joe Miller in Alaska. They’re the ones who are responsible for Ken Buck in Colorado. They’re the ones who are responsible for Sharron Angle in Nevada.”

Then Kondracke discussed whether Palin could be the 2012 nominee: "She's a joke even within her own party," Kondracke said. "The idea that she would be the presidential nominee is unthinkable."

Thomas Mann, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, then said: "Think of Sarah Palin and Jim DeMint as the new faces of the Republican Party. It's a nightmare for the party, but I think the adults will have a hard time talking about them with anything but complete and utter respect."

C-SPAN’s got the video.

Poll Watch: Dittman Research (R) Alaska Senatorial Survey

Dittman Research (R) Alaska Senatorial Survey

• Lisa Murkowski (R) 37% {37%} [37%]
• Joe Miller (R) 26% {27%} [31%]
• Scott McAdams (D) 22% {23%} [19%]
• Undecided 15% {13%} [13%]

Survey of 465 likely voters was conducted October 26-31, 2010.  The margin of error is +/- 4.6 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted October 23-28, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 28 - September 1, 2010 are in square brackets.

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Alaska Senatorial Survey

PPP (D) Alaska Senatorial Survey

In the election for US Senate will you vote for Democrat Scott McAdams, Republican Joe Miller, nonaffiliated candidate Tim Carter, nonaffiliated candidate Ted Gianoutsos, Libertarian Fredrick Haase, or are you going to write in Lisa Murkowski, or are you planning to write in someone else?

• Joe Miller (R) 37% [35%] (38%)
• Lisa Murkowski (R) 30% [33%] (34%)
• Scott McAdams (D) 30% [26%] (22%)
• Someone else 1% [1%]
• Undecided 2% [4%] (6%)

Among Independents

• Lisa Murkowski (R) 34% [38%] (38%)
• Scott McAdams (D) 32% [25%] (21%)
• Joe Miller (R) 31% [29%] (33%)
• Someone else 1% [1%]
• Undecided 2% [5%] (7%)

Among Republicans

• Joe Miller (R) 65% [61%] (59%)
• Lisa Murkowski (R) 27% [31%] (32%)
• Scott McAdams (D) 5% [4%] (5%)
• Undecided 2% [2%] (4%)

Among Democrats

• Scott McAdams (D) 63% [63%] (57%)
• Lisa Murkowski (R) 28% [25%] (28%)
• Joe Miller (R) 9% [8%] (7%)
• Undecided 0% [3%] (8%)

Among Conservatives

• Joe Miller (R) 67% [66%] (69%)
• Lisa Murkowski (R) 23% [24%] (23%)
• Scott McAdams (D) 7% [5%] (3%)
• Undecided 2% [3%] (6%)

Among Moderates

• Lisa Murkowski (R) 41% [47%] (48%)
• Scott McAdams (D) 38% [30%] (29%)
• Joe Miller (R) 18% [15%] (16%)
• Undecided 2% [5%] (7%)

Among Men

• Joe Miller (R) 40% [40%] (42%)
• Lisa Murkowski (R) 29% [31%] (35%)
• Scott McAdams (D) 28% [23%] (19%)
• Undecided 2% [4%] (5%)

Among Women

• Joe Miller (R) 34% [31%] (34%)
• Lisa Murkowski (R) 32% [36%] (33%)
• Scott McAdams (D) 32% [29%] (25%)
• Someone else 1% [1%]
• Undecided 2% [4%] (8%)

Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Lisa Murkowski's job performance?

• Approve 37% 
• Disapprove 53%

Among Independents

• Approve 41%
• Disapprove 48%

Among Republicans

• Approve 31%
• Disapprove 63%

Among Democrats

• Approve 39%
• Disapprove 53%

Among Conservatives

• Approve 28%
• Disapprove 66% 

Among Moderates

• Approve 48%
• Disapprove 39%

Among Men

• Approve 35%
• Disapprove 56%

Among Women

• Approve 40%
• Disapprove 51%

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Joe Miller?

• Favorable 36% [35%] (36%)
• Unfavorable 59% [58%] (52%)

Among Independents

• Favorable 30% [28%] (32%)
• Unfavorable 64% [65%] (54%)

Among Republicans

• Favorable 62% [59%] (57%)
• Unfavorable 32% [33%] (32%)

Among Democrats

• Favorable 11% [10%] (8%)
• Unfavorable 86% [85%] (84%)

Among Conservatives

• Favorable 63% [64%] (66%)
• Unfavorable 29% [28%] (20%)

Among Moderates

• Favorable 19% [17%] (15%)
• Unfavorable 77% [77%] (72%)

Among Men

• Favorable 40% [38%] (40%)
• Unfavorable 56% [56%] (48%)

Among Women

• Favorable 33% [32%] (33%)
• Unfavorable 62% [61%] (55%)

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Scott McAdams?

• Favorable 50% [44%] (23%)
• Unfavorable 30% [26%] (24%)

Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Mark Begich’s job performance?

• Approve 39% [39%] (42%)
• Disapprove 47% [48%] (50%)

Do you approve or disapprove of Barack Obama’s job performance?

• Approve 38% [38%] (44%)
• Disapprove 55% [55%] (53%) 

Survey of 1,539 likely voters was conducted October 30-31, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 2.5 percentage points. Party ID breakdown: 48% [47%] (42%) Independent/Other; 32% [33%] (38%) Republican; 21% [20%] (20%) Democrat. Political ideology: 43% [43%] (44%) Moderate; 42% [41%] (42%) Conservative; 16% [16%] (14%) Liberal. Results from the poll conducted October 9-10, 2010 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted August 27-28, 2010 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Dittman Research (R) Alaska Senatorial Survey

Dittman Research (R) Alaska Senatorial Survey

• Lisa Murkowski (R) 37% [37%]
• Joe Miller (R) 27% [31%]
• Scott McAdams (D) 23% [19%]
• Unsure 13% [13%]

Survey of 421 likely voters was conducted October 23-28, 2010.  The margin of error is +/- 4.8 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted August 28 - September 1, 2010 are in square brackets.

Inside the numbers:

Respondents are first asked an open-ended question about their vote preference, and their choice of candidate is recorded. If the respondent is unable to make a choice, he or she is read the names of the candidates on the ballot, with the option of a write-in candidate. In order to choose Murkowski, the respondent must choose the write-in option and provide her name.

Lisa Murkowski for Senate TV Ad: "Joe's America"

Poll Watch: Hellenthal Research Alaska Senatorial Survey

Hellenthal Research Alaska Senatorial Survey

If the November 2nd general election for U.S. Senate were held today and the candidates are Joe Miller, the Republican; Scott McAdams, the Democrat; or Lisa Murkowski, as a write-in, for whom would you vote for U.S. Senate?

• Lisa Murkowski (R) 45.7%
• Joe Miller (R) 30.4%
• Scott McAdams (D) 23.9%

Positive / Negative {Net}

• Lisa Murkowski 56% / 40% {+16%}
• Scott McAdams 45% / 29% {+16%}
• Joe Miller 33% / 62% {-29%}

Survey of 400 likely voters was conducted October 25-27, 2010.  The margin of error is +/- 4.9 percentage points.

Maddow Meets with Murkowski, McAdams and Miller

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

Misconduct revelations against Alaska tea party candidate may favor Murkowski

Poll Watch: CNN/Time/Opinion Research Alaska Political Survey

CNN/Time/Opinion Research Alaska Political Survey

If the election for U.S. Senate were held today and the candidates were Scott McAdams, the Democrat and Joe Miller, the Republican, who would you be more likely to vote for or would you write in the name of Lisa Murkowski, who is also running?

• Lisa Murkowski (R) 37% (36%)
• Joe Miller (R) 37% (38%)
• Scott McAdams (D) (22%)

(IF VOTING FOR MURKOWSKI) How confident are you that you know the correct procedure for writing in Murkowski’s name so your write-in vote will be officially counted when election officials examine the ballots? Are you very confident, somewhat confident, not too confident or not confident at all that you know how to do that?

• Very confident 93%
• Somewhat confident 6%
• Not too confident 0%
• Not confident at all 0%

(IF VOTING FOR MURKOWSKI) Suppose when you fill in your ballot, the procedure for casting a writein vote is different or more complicated than you had thought it would be. If that happens, how likely is it that you would vote for one of the candidates whose names appear on the ballot rather than trying to cast a write-in vote? Would that be very likely, somewhat likely, not too likely, or not likely at all?

• Very likely 6%
• Somewhat likely 4%
• Not too likely 8%
• Not likely at all 80%

(IF LIKELY) Would you be more likely under those circumstances to vote for Scott McAdams, the Democrat, or Joe Miller, the Republican?

• Very or somewhat likely to switch to McAdams 6%
• Very or somewhat likely to switch to Miller 4%
• Not likely to switch from Murkowski 88%

Among Men

• Joe Miller (R) 41% (45%)
• Lisa Murkowski (R) 37% (30%)
• Scott McAdams (D) 20% (20%)

Among Women

• Lisa Murkowski (R) 38% (43%)
• Joe Miller (R) 32% (30%)
• Scott McAdams (D) 26% (23%)

Among Republicans

• Joe Miller (R) 58% (63%)
• Lisa Murkowski (R) 37% (32%)
• Scott McAdams (D) 3% (2%)

Among Independents

• Lisa Murkowski (R) 40% (38%)
• Joe Miller (R) 32% (35%)
• Scott McAdams (D) 24% (21%)

Among Democrats

• Scott McAdams (D) 65% (55%)
• Lisa Murkowski (R) 31% (39%)
• Joe Miller (R) 2% (4%) 

Among Conservatives

• Joe Miller (R) 61% (67%)
• Lisa Murkowski (R) 32% (27%)
• Scott McAdams (D) 4% (3%)

Among Moderates

• Lisa Murkowski (R) 50% (46%)
• Scott McAdams (D) 32% (29%)
• Joe Miller (R) 16% (20%)

GUBERNATORIAL ELECTION

• Sean Parnell (R) (57%)
• Ethan Berkowitz (D) (38%)

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president?

• Approve 34%
• Disapprove 62%

Survey of 946 likely voters was conducted October 15-19, 2010.  The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted September 24-28, 2010 are in parentheses.

Joe Miller Security Arrests and Handcuffs Alaska Dispatch Editor

Miller security handcuffs journalist at town hall
Alaska Dispatch editor Tony Hopfinger was handcuffed by security guards at a Joe Miller town hall event Sunday afternoon. Hopfinger says he approached Miller to ask questions, but was arrested for half an hour until police arrived.




On the Defense: Candidate Joe Miller
Rep. Senate Candidate Joe Miller defends himself against allegations about his conduct with CNN's John King.

Poll Watch: Rasmussen Alaska Senatorial Survey

Rasmussen Alaska Senatorial Survey

• Joe Miller (R) 35% [42%] {50%}
• Lisa Murkowski (R) 34% [27%]
• Scott McAdams (D) 27% [25%] {44%}
• Other 1% [1%] {4%}
• Not sure 3% [5%] {2%}

Among Republicans

• Joe Miller (R) 55% [65%] {79%}
• Lisa Murkowski (R) 37% [27%]
• Scott McAdams (D) 6% [3%] {15%}
• Other 1% [0%] {5%}
• Not sure 1% [5%] {1%}

Among Independents

• Lisa Murkowski (R) 44% [30%]
• Scott McAdams (D) 28% [32%] {56%}
• Joe Miller (R) 20% [30%] {34%}
• Other 4% [3%] {4%}
• Not sure 5% [5%] {6%}

Among Democrats

• Scott McAdams (D) 78% [74%] {90%}
• Lisa Murkowski (R) 16% [18%]
• Joe Miller (R) 3% [7%] {7%}
• Other 0% [0%] {1%}
• Not sure 4% [2%] {2%}

Among Conservatives

• Joe Miller (R) 59% [71%] {82%}
• Lisa Murkowski (R) 31% [23%]
• Scott McAdams (D) 6% [2%] {13%}
• Other 2% [1%] {3%}
• Not sure 2% [3%] {2%}

Among Moderates

• Lisa Murkowski (R) 50% [34%]
• Scott McAdams (D) 32% [39%] {62%}
• Joe Miller (R) 14% [21%] {28%}
• Other 1% [0%] {7%} 
• Not sure 2% [5%] {4%}

Among Voters Certain of Their Vote

• Lisa Murkowski (R) 38%
• Joe Miller (R) 37%
• Scott McAdams (D) 25%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Scott McAdams 50% [36%] {43%} / 41% [46%] {36%} {+9%}
• Lisa Murkowski 53% [55%] / 46% [44%] {+7%}
• Joe Miller 39% [45%] {50%} / 59% [51%] {44%} {-20%}

How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President?

• Strongly approve 26% [21%] {31%} [26%] (27%)
• Somewhat approve 15% [21%] {15%} [14%] (12%)
• Somewhat disapprove 7% [9%] {7%} [7%] (10%)
• Strongly disapprove 51% [50%] {47%} [51%] (51%)

How would you rate the job Sean Parnell has been doing as Governor?

• Strongly approve 18% [20%] {17%} [16%] (20%)
• Somewhat approve 40% [46%] {42%} [45%] (50%)
• Somewhat disapprove 27% [23%] {26%} [25%] (20%)
• Strongly disapprove 12% [10%] {14%} [13%] (9%)

Survey of 500 likely voters was conducted October 13, 2010.  The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points. Party ID breakdown: 53% [44%] Republican; 22% [15%] Democrat; 25% [41%] Independent/Other.  Results from the poll conducted September 19, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 31, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 15, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 6, 2010 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Daily Kos/PPP (D) Alaska Senatorial Survey

Daily Kos/PPP (D) Alaska Senatorial Survey

In the election for US Senate will you vote for Democrat Scott McAdams, Republican Joe Miller, or someone else? (If someone else) Are you planning to vote for nonaffiliated candidate Tim Carter, nonaffiliated candidate Ted Gianoutsos, Libertarian Fredrick Haase, or are you going to write in Lisa Murkowski or are you planning to write in someone else?

• Joe Miller (R) 35% (38%)
• Lisa Murkowski (R) 33% (34%)
• Scott McAdams (D) 26% (22%)
• Fredrick Haase (L) 1%
• Someone else 1%
• Undecided 4% (6%)

Among Independents

• Lisa Murkowski (R) 38% (38%)
• Joe Miller (R) 29% (33%)
• Scott McAdams (D) 25% (21%)
• Fredrick Haase (L) 1%
• Someone else 1%
• Undecided 5% (7%)

Among Republicans

• Joe Miller (R) 61% (59%)
• Lisa Murkowski (R) 31% (32%)
• Scott McAdams (D) 4% (5%)
• Fredrick Haase (L) 1%
• Someone else 1%
• Undecided 2% (4%)

Among Democrats

• Scott McAdams (D) 63% (57%)
• Lisa Murkowski (R) 25% (28%)
• Joe Miller (R) 8% (7%)
• Fredrick Haase (L) 1%
• Undecided 3% (8%)

Among Conservatives

• Joe Miller (R) 66% (69%)
• Lisa Murkowski (R) 24% (23%)
• Scott McAdams (D) 5% (3%)
• Ted Gianoutsos (I) 1%
• Fredrick Haase (L) 1%
• Someone else 1%
• Undecided 3% (6%)

Among Moderates

• Lisa Murkowski (R) 47% (48%)
• Scott McAdams (D) 30% (29%)
• Joe Miller (R) 15% (16%)
• Fredrick Haase (L) 1%
• Someone else 1%
• Undecided 5% (7%)

Among Men

• Joe Miller (R) 40% (42%)
• Lisa Murkowski (R) 31% (35%)
• Scott McAdams (D) 23% (19%)
• Fredrick Haase (L) 1%
• Someone else 1%
• Undecided 4% (5%)

Among Women

• Lisa Murkowski (R) 36% (33%)
• Joe Miller (R) 31% (34%)
• Scott McAdams (D) 29% (25%)
• Fredrick Haase (L) 1%
• Someone else 1%
• Undecided 4% (8%)

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Lisa Murkowski?

• Favorable 48%
• Unfavorable 46%

Among Independents

• Favorable 52%
• Unfavorable 41% 

Among Republicans

• Favorable 41%
• Unfavorable 55%

Among Democrats

• Favorable 51%
• Unfavorable 42% 

Among Conservatives

• Favorable 33%
• Unfavorable 62% 

Among Moderates

• Favorable 63%
• Unfavorable 30%

Among Men

• Favorable 43%
• Unfavorable 51%

Among Women

• Favorable 53%
• Unfavorable 41%

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Joe Miller?

• Favorable 35% (36%)
• Unfavorable 58% (52%)

Among Independents

• Favorable 28% (32%)
• Unfavorable 65% (54%)

Among Republicans

• Favorable 59% (57%)
• Unfavorable 33% (32%)

Among Democrats

• Favorable 10% (8%)
• Unfavorable 85% (84%)

Among Conservatives

• Favorable 64% (66%)
• Unfavorable 28% (20%)

Among Moderates

• Favorable 17% (15%)
• Unfavorable 77% (72%)

Among Men

• Favorable 38% (40%)
• Unfavorable 56% (48%)

Among Women

• Favorable 32% (33%)
• Unfavorable 61% (55%)

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Scott McAdams?

• Favorable 44% (23%)
• Unfavorable 26% (24%)

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Sarah Palin?

• Favorable 35%
• Unfavorable 57%

Among Independents

• Favorable 29%
• Unfavorable 63%

Among Republicans

• Favorable 59%
• Unfavorable 30%

Among Democrats

• Favorable 8%
• Unfavorable 86%

Among Conservatives

• Favorable 64%
• Unfavorable 25%

Among Moderates

• Favorable 17%
• Unfavorable 77%

Among Men

• Favorable 37%
• Unfavorable 55%

Among Women

• Favorable 33%
• Unfavorable 59%

Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Mark Begich’s job performance?

• Approve 39% (42%)
• Disapprove 48% (50%)

Do you approve or disapprove of Barack Obama’s job performance?

• Approve 38% (44%)
• Disapprove 55% (53%)

Survey of 1,678 likely voters was conducted October 9-10, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 2.4 percentage points.  Party ID breakdown: 47% (42%) Independent/Other; 33% (38%) Republican; 20% (20%) Democrat. Political ideology: 43% (44%) Moderate; 41% (42%) Conservative; 16% (14%) Liberal.  Results from the poll conducted August 27-28, 2010 are in parentheses.

Alaska's Joe Miller Favors Abolishing Federal Minimum Wage