Poll Watch: Rasmussen (R) 2012 Political Predictions Survey

Rasmussen (R) 2012 Political Predictions Poll

Regardless of who you want to win, who do you think is most likely to win the presidential election this year…President Obama or Mitt Romney?

• President Obama 51% {55%} [50%] (53%)
• Mitt Romney 39% {35%} [36%] (33%)

Note: Intrade: Barack Obama to be re-elected President in 2012: 60.6% chance. / Mitt Romney to be elected President in 2012: 39.5% chance.

After the next election, which political party is most likely to have majority control in the U.S. House of Representatives…the Republicans or the Democrats?

• Republicans 56% {54%} [51%] (59%)
• Democrats 23% {27%} [30%] (22%)
• Not sure 22% {19%} [19%] (19%)

Note: Intrade: Republicans to control House of Representatives after 2012 elections: 95.0% chance. / Democrats to control House of Representative after 2012 elections: 4.7% chance.

 
Following the election, which political party is most likely to have majority control in the U.S. Senate…the Republicans or the Democrats?

• Republicans 38% {36%} [41%] (38%) 
• Democrats 37% {41%} [36%] (39%)
• Not sure 24% {24%} [23%] (23%)

Note: Intrade: Democrats to control Senate after 2012 elections: 67.0% chance. / Republicans to control Senate after 2012 elections: 22.8% chance.

 
National survey of 1,000 likely voters was conducted October 19-20, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted October 5-6, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 15-16, 2012 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted August 26-27, 2012 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:

Democrats (81%) remain more confident than Republicans (70%) that their party’s candidate will be the eventual winner. Voters not affiliated with either of the major parties think the president will win by a 47% to 40% margin. Two weeks ago, unaffiliated voters predicted an Obama win 54% to 33%.

Seventy-nine percent (79%) of GOP voters expect their party to continue to control the House, and 52% of unaffiliated voters agree. Democrats are almost evenly divided on this question.

Voters in both parties are equally confident their side will be in charge of the Senate next year. Unaffiliateds give a slight edge to the Republicans, but a plurality (41%) of these voters are undecided.

Sixty-three percent (63%) of all likely voters are excited about the choice between Romney and Obama. However, nearly one-in-three (32%) still say they will be voting for the lesser of two evils. That’s unchanged from the previous survey. Republicans and Democrats are equally enthusiastic about the choice, while unaffiliated voters are evenly divided.

Also largely unchanged from the earlier surveys is the belief by 52% of voters that Romney and the president disagree on most important issues, while another 33% thinks they disagree on just about everything. Only 11% believe they agree on most issues.

Voters under 40 are less enthusiastic about the choice between Obama and Romney than their elders are.

Those with health insurance are less confident that Obama will win than are voters who aren’t insured.

Poll Watch: Rasmussen (R) 2012 Political Predictions Survey

Rasmussen (R) 2012 Political Predictions Poll

Regardless of who you want to win, who do you think is most likely to win the presidential election this year…President Obama or Mitt Romney?

• President Obama 55% [50%] (53%)
• Mitt Romney 35% [36%] (33%)
• Not sure [13%] (13%)

Note: Intrade: Barack Obama to be re-elected President in 2012: 62.3% chance. / Mitt Romney to be elected President in 2012: 37.5% chance.

After the next election, which political party is most likely to have majority control in the U.S. House of Representatives…the Republicans or the Democrats?

• Republicans 54% [51%] (59%)
• Democrats 27% [30%] (22%)
• Not sure 19% [19%] (19%)

Note: Intrade: Republicans to control House of Representatives after 2012 elections: 88.1% chance. / Democrats to control House of Representative after 2012 elections: 11.6% chance.

 
Following the election, which political party is most likely to have majority control in the U.S. Senate…the Republicans or the Democrats?

• Democrats 41% [36%] (39%)
• Republicans 36% [41%] (38%)
• Not sure 24% [23%] (23%)

Note: Intrade: Democrats to control Senate after 2012 elections: 63.2% chance. / Republicans to control Senate after 2012 elections: 24.5% chance.

 
National survey of 1,000 likely voters was conducted October 5-6, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted September 15-16, 2012 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted August 26-27, 2012 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:

Democrats remain more much more confident in their candidate than Republicans are. Eighty-seven percent (87%) of voters in the president’s party think Obama is likely to win, compared to 67% of GOP voters who feel Romney is more likely to be elected. Confidence has been increasing among both groups since August.

But now most voters not affiliated with either of the major parties (54%) believe for the first time that Obama is the likely winner. Only 33% of these voters think a Romney victory is likely, with another 13% who are undecided.

Predictably, most Republicans and Democrats expect their respective party to be in charge of both houses of Congress after the election. Unaffiliated voters, on the other hand, think the GOP will remain in charge of the House but are evenly divided over which party will control the Senate next year.

Poll Watch: Rasmussen (R) 2012 Political Predictions Survey

Rasmussen (R) 2012 Political Predictions Poll

Regardless of who you want to win, who do you think is most likely to win the presidential election this year…President Obama or Mitt Romney?

• President Obama 50% (53%)
• Mitt Romney 36% (33%)
• Not sure 13% (13%)

Note: Intrade: Barack Obama to be re-elected President in 2012: 68.0% chance. / Mitt Romney to be elected President in 2012: 32.3% chance.

After the next election, which political party is most likely to have majority control in the U.S. House of Representatives…the Republicans or the Democrats?

• Republicans 51% (59%)
• Democrats 30% (22%)
• Not sure 19% (19%)

Note: Intrade: Republicans to control House of Representatives after 2012 elections: 85.0% chance. / Democrats to control House of Representative after 2012 elections: 15.0% chance. 

Following the election, which political party is most likely to have majority control in the U.S. Senate…the Republicans or the Democrats?

• Republicans 41% (38%)
• Democrats 36% (39%)
• Not sure 23% (23%)

Note: Intrade: Republicans to control Senate after 2012 elections: 38.8% chance. / Democrats to control Senate after 2012 elections: 32.7% chance. 

National survey of 1,000 likely voters was conducted September 15-16, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted August 26-27, 2012 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:

Democrats continue to have more confidence in their candidate. Eighty-four percent (84%) of voters in the president’s party think he’s most likely to win, compared to 68% of GOP voters who believe Romney is the likeliest winner. That’s an increase in confidence among both groups. Voters not affiliated with either of the major parties still project Obama as most likely to win by a 49% to 32% margin, little changed from last month.

Republican confidence is little changed from late August when it comes to both houses of Congress, but Democrats are now a lot more confident that they can win back the House of Representatives. Unaffiliated voters are less confident that the GOP can hold the House and that the Democrats can keep control of the Senate.

Male voters are now evenly divided over the likely outcome of the presidential race, but female voters project Obama as the winner by 26 points. Voters under 40 give the president the lead overwhelmingly, while older voters are narrowly divided.

Both male and female voters give the edge to the Republicans when it comes to which party will control the House and Senate after the elections.

Most Evangelical Christians (57%) and Catholics (55%) expect Romney to win in November. Most other Protestants (58%) and voters of other or no faiths (62%) think the president is most likely to be reelected.

Intrade Republican 2012 Vice Presidential Nominee Odds

Intrade GOP 2012 VP Nominee Odds

• Paul Ryan 50.0%
• Tim Pawlenty 11.0%
• Rob Portman 10.6% 
• Marco Rubio 5.0%       
• Bobby Jindal 2.4%
• Bob McDonnell 2.1%
• John Thune 2.0%  
• Chris Christie 1.5% 
• Condoleezza Rice 1.0%
• Sarah Palin 0.9% 
• Kelly Ayotte 0.6%          
• Susana Martinez 0.4%
• Nikki Haley 0.3%  
• Cathy McMorris Rodgers 0.3%
• Brian Sandoval 0.3%
• David Petraeus 0.3%
• Eric Cantor 0.2%
• Pat Toomey 0.2%
• Mike Huckabee 0.2%
• Dave Heineman 0.2%
• Jeb Bush 0.2%
• Meg Whitman 0.2%
• John Kasich 0.2%
• Jon Kyl 0.2%
• Ron Paul 0.2% 
• Jon Huntsman 0.2% 
• Luis Fortuño 0.2% 
• Rick Santorum 0.1% 
• Rudy Giuliani 0.1%
• Michele Bachmann 0.1% 
• Haley Barbour 0.1%   
• Mitch Daniels 0.1%
• Rand Paul 0.1%
• Michael Bloomberg 0.1%
• John Bolton 0.1%
• Scott Brown 0.1%
• Carly Fiorina 0.1%
• Newt Gingrich 0.1%
• Judd Gregg 0.1%
• Gary Johnson 0.1%
• George Pataki 0.1% 
• Kay Bailey Hutchison 0.1%
• Mike Pence 0.1%
• Rick Perry 0.1%
• Donald Trump 0.1%
• Scott Walker 0.1%
• J.C. Watts 0.1%
• Jim DeMint 0.1%
• Allen West 0.1% 

Last Updated: August 10, 2012