Tuesday, September 18, 2012

Poll Watch: Rasmussen (R) 2012 Political Predictions Survey

Rasmussen (R) 2012 Political Predictions Poll

Regardless of who you want to win, who do you think is most likely to win the presidential election this year…President Obama or Mitt Romney?
  • President Obama 50% (53%)
  • Mitt Romney 36% (33%)
  • Not sure 13% (13%)
Note: Intrade: Barack Obama to be re-elected President in 2012: 68.0% chance. / Mitt Romney to be elected President in 2012: 32.3% chance.
After the next election, which political party is most likely to have majority control in the U.S. House of Representatives…the Republicans or the Democrats?
  • Republicans 51% (59%)
  • Democrats 30% (22%)
  • Not sure 19% (19%)
Note: Intrade: Republicans to control House of Representatives after 2012 elections: 85.0% chance. / Democrats to control House of Representative after 2012 elections: 15.0% chance
Following the election, which political party is most likely to have majority control in the U.S. Senate…the Republicans or the Democrats?
  • Republicans 41% (38%)
  • Democrats 36% (39%)
  • Not sure 23% (23%)
Note: Intrade: Republicans to control Senate after 2012 elections: 38.8% chance. / Democrats to control Senate after 2012 elections: 32.7% chance
National survey of 1,000 likely voters was conducted September 15-16, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted August 26-27, 2012 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:
Democrats continue to have more confidence in their candidate. Eighty-four percent (84%) of voters in the president’s party think he’s most likely to win, compared to 68% of GOP voters who believe Romney is the likeliest winner. That’s an increase in confidence among both groups. Voters not affiliated with either of the major parties still project Obama as most likely to win by a 49% to 32% margin, little changed from last month.

Republican confidence is little changed from late August when it comes to both houses of Congress, but Democrats are now a lot more confident that they can win back the House of Representatives. Unaffiliated voters are less confident that the GOP can hold the House and that the Democrats can keep control of the Senate.

Male voters are now evenly divided over the likely outcome of the presidential race, but female voters project Obama as the winner by 26 points. Voters under 40 give the president the lead overwhelmingly, while older voters are narrowly divided.

Both male and female voters give the edge to the Republicans when it comes to which party will control the House and Senate after the elections.

Most Evangelical Christians (57%) and Catholics (55%) expect Romney to win in November. Most other Protestants (58%) and voters of other or no faiths (62%) think the president is most likely to be reelected.

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