Rasmussen (R) 2012 Political Predictions Poll
Regardless of who you want to win, who do you think is most likely to win the presidential election this year…President Obama or Mitt Romney?
Regardless of who you want to win, who do you think is most likely to win the presidential election this year…President Obama or Mitt Romney?
- President Obama 50% (53%)
- Mitt Romney 36% (33%)
- Not sure 13% (13%)
- Republicans 51% (59%)
- Democrats 30% (22%)
- Not sure 19% (19%)
- Republicans 41% (38%)
- Democrats 36% (39%)
- Not sure 23% (23%)
Inside the numbers:
Democrats continue to have more confidence in their candidate. Eighty-four percent (84%) of voters in the president’s party think he’s most likely to win, compared to 68% of GOP voters who believe Romney is the likeliest winner. That’s an increase in confidence among both groups. Voters not affiliated with either of the major parties still project Obama as most likely to win by a 49% to 32% margin, little changed from last month.
Republican confidence is little changed from late August when it comes to both houses of Congress, but Democrats are now a lot more confident that they can win back the House of Representatives. Unaffiliated voters are less confident that the GOP can hold the House and that the Democrats can keep control of the Senate.
Male voters are now evenly divided over the likely outcome of the presidential race, but female voters project Obama as the winner by 26 points. Voters under 40 give the president the lead overwhelmingly, while older voters are narrowly divided.
Both male and female voters give the edge to the Republicans when it comes to which party will control the House and Senate after the elections.
Most Evangelical Christians (57%) and Catholics (55%) expect Romney to win in November. Most other Protestants (58%) and voters of other or no faiths (62%) think the president is most likely to be reelected.
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