Poll Watch: United Technologies/National Journal 2012 Presidential Survey

United Technologies/National Journal 2012 Presidential Poll

• Barack Obama 50% (47%)
• Mitt Romney 45% (47%)

Survey of 713 likely voters was conducted October 25-28, 2012 by Princeton Survey Research Associates International. The margin of error is +/- 4.4 percentage points. Party ID: 36% Democrat; 29% Republican; 30% Independent. Results from the poll conducted September 27-30, 2012 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:

Forty-seven percent (47%) of likely voters say they would prefer that Republicans maintain their House majority, while 44 percent want Democrats to take over; Democrats held a 45 percent to 43 percent advantage in late September. Voters, by a solid 50 percent to 40 percent margin, now say they would prefer a Democratic Senate; that’s up from a 47 percent to 42 percent advantage for Democrats in September.

The survey found an overwhelming correlation between preferences in the presidential race and the battle for congressional control. In the House, fully 85 percent of Obama voters preferred a Democratic majority, while 92 percent of Romney voters said they want the Republicans to maintain control. In the Senate, Obama voters by 89 percent to 3 percent said they preferred Democratic control, while Romney voters, by 83 percent to 9 percent, want Republicans to take the majority.

In the poll, three-fifths of likely voters say that if Romney wins they want Democrats to control at least one chamber “so they can act as a check” on his agenda; just 34 percent want Republicans to control both chambers “so they can implement his agenda.” Even among those voting for Romney, fully one-fourth say they want Democrats to control one congressional chamber.

Likewise, just 36 percent of voters want Democrats to control both chambers if Obama wins; 58 percent say they want Republicans to hold at least one to check him. About one-fourth of Obama voters say they would prefer divided control.

In its likely-voter model, the poll projected that the 2012 electorate will be virtually unchanged from 2008, with Democrats holding an 8 percentage-point advantage among voters (compared with 7 points last time) and whites representing 73 percent of voters (compared to 74 percent last time).

Poll Watch: Rasmussen (R) 2012 Political Predictions Survey

Rasmussen (R) 2012 Political Predictions Poll

Regardless of who you want to win, who do you think is most likely to win the presidential election this year…President Obama or Mitt Romney?

• President Obama 51% {55%} [50%] (53%)
• Mitt Romney 39% {35%} [36%] (33%)

Note: Intrade: Barack Obama to be re-elected President in 2012: 60.6% chance. / Mitt Romney to be elected President in 2012: 39.5% chance.

After the next election, which political party is most likely to have majority control in the U.S. House of Representatives…the Republicans or the Democrats?

• Republicans 56% {54%} [51%] (59%)
• Democrats 23% {27%} [30%] (22%)
• Not sure 22% {19%} [19%] (19%)

Note: Intrade: Republicans to control House of Representatives after 2012 elections: 95.0% chance. / Democrats to control House of Representative after 2012 elections: 4.7% chance.

 
Following the election, which political party is most likely to have majority control in the U.S. Senate…the Republicans or the Democrats?

• Republicans 38% {36%} [41%] (38%) 
• Democrats 37% {41%} [36%] (39%)
• Not sure 24% {24%} [23%] (23%)

Note: Intrade: Democrats to control Senate after 2012 elections: 67.0% chance. / Republicans to control Senate after 2012 elections: 22.8% chance.

 
National survey of 1,000 likely voters was conducted October 19-20, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted October 5-6, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 15-16, 2012 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted August 26-27, 2012 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:

Democrats (81%) remain more confident than Republicans (70%) that their party’s candidate will be the eventual winner. Voters not affiliated with either of the major parties think the president will win by a 47% to 40% margin. Two weeks ago, unaffiliated voters predicted an Obama win 54% to 33%.

Seventy-nine percent (79%) of GOP voters expect their party to continue to control the House, and 52% of unaffiliated voters agree. Democrats are almost evenly divided on this question.

Voters in both parties are equally confident their side will be in charge of the Senate next year. Unaffiliateds give a slight edge to the Republicans, but a plurality (41%) of these voters are undecided.

Sixty-three percent (63%) of all likely voters are excited about the choice between Romney and Obama. However, nearly one-in-three (32%) still say they will be voting for the lesser of two evils. That’s unchanged from the previous survey. Republicans and Democrats are equally enthusiastic about the choice, while unaffiliated voters are evenly divided.

Also largely unchanged from the earlier surveys is the belief by 52% of voters that Romney and the president disagree on most important issues, while another 33% thinks they disagree on just about everything. Only 11% believe they agree on most issues.

Voters under 40 are less enthusiastic about the choice between Obama and Romney than their elders are.

Those with health insurance are less confident that Obama will win than are voters who aren’t insured.

Poll Watch: Rasmussen (R) 2012 Political Predictions Survey

Rasmussen (R) 2012 Political Predictions Poll

Regardless of who you want to win, who do you think is most likely to win the presidential election this year…President Obama or Mitt Romney?

• President Obama 55% [50%] (53%)
• Mitt Romney 35% [36%] (33%)
• Not sure [13%] (13%)

Note: Intrade: Barack Obama to be re-elected President in 2012: 62.3% chance. / Mitt Romney to be elected President in 2012: 37.5% chance.

After the next election, which political party is most likely to have majority control in the U.S. House of Representatives…the Republicans or the Democrats?

• Republicans 54% [51%] (59%)
• Democrats 27% [30%] (22%)
• Not sure 19% [19%] (19%)

Note: Intrade: Republicans to control House of Representatives after 2012 elections: 88.1% chance. / Democrats to control House of Representative after 2012 elections: 11.6% chance.

 
Following the election, which political party is most likely to have majority control in the U.S. Senate…the Republicans or the Democrats?

• Democrats 41% [36%] (39%)
• Republicans 36% [41%] (38%)
• Not sure 24% [23%] (23%)

Note: Intrade: Democrats to control Senate after 2012 elections: 63.2% chance. / Republicans to control Senate after 2012 elections: 24.5% chance.

 
National survey of 1,000 likely voters was conducted October 5-6, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted September 15-16, 2012 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted August 26-27, 2012 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:

Democrats remain more much more confident in their candidate than Republicans are. Eighty-seven percent (87%) of voters in the president’s party think Obama is likely to win, compared to 67% of GOP voters who feel Romney is more likely to be elected. Confidence has been increasing among both groups since August.

But now most voters not affiliated with either of the major parties (54%) believe for the first time that Obama is the likely winner. Only 33% of these voters think a Romney victory is likely, with another 13% who are undecided.

Predictably, most Republicans and Democrats expect their respective party to be in charge of both houses of Congress after the election. Unaffiliated voters, on the other hand, think the GOP will remain in charge of the House but are evenly divided over which party will control the Senate next year.

Poll Watch: Mason-Dixon Montana 2012 Congressional Survey

Mason-Dixon Montana 2012 Congressional Poll

• Steve Daines (R) 46%
• Kim Gillan (D) 38%
• Dave Kaiser (L) 2%
• Undecided 14%

Survey of 625 likely voters was conducted September 17-19, 2012 for Lee Newspapers.  The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points.

Inside the numbers: 

One of the few bright spots for Gillan in the poll results was her support among women – they gave her a slight edge, at 45 percent to 43 percent. Independents, however, favored Daines by a 15-point margin, and men who were polled favored Daines by a 19-point margin.

Forty-nine percent (49%) of those polled said they didn’t recognize Gillan’s name and 28 percent said they didn’t recognize Daines.

President Obama Delivers Weekly Address: "Congress Must Act to Create Jobs and Grow the Economy"

Poll Watch: Rasmussen (R) 2012 Political Predictions Survey

Rasmussen (R) 2012 Political Predictions Poll

Regardless of who you want to win, who do you think is most likely to win the presidential election this year…President Obama or Mitt Romney?

• President Obama 50% (53%)
• Mitt Romney 36% (33%)
• Not sure 13% (13%)

Note: Intrade: Barack Obama to be re-elected President in 2012: 68.0% chance. / Mitt Romney to be elected President in 2012: 32.3% chance.

After the next election, which political party is most likely to have majority control in the U.S. House of Representatives…the Republicans or the Democrats?

• Republicans 51% (59%)
• Democrats 30% (22%)
• Not sure 19% (19%)

Note: Intrade: Republicans to control House of Representatives after 2012 elections: 85.0% chance. / Democrats to control House of Representative after 2012 elections: 15.0% chance. 

Following the election, which political party is most likely to have majority control in the U.S. Senate…the Republicans or the Democrats?

• Republicans 41% (38%)
• Democrats 36% (39%)
• Not sure 23% (23%)

Note: Intrade: Republicans to control Senate after 2012 elections: 38.8% chance. / Democrats to control Senate after 2012 elections: 32.7% chance. 

National survey of 1,000 likely voters was conducted September 15-16, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted August 26-27, 2012 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:

Democrats continue to have more confidence in their candidate. Eighty-four percent (84%) of voters in the president’s party think he’s most likely to win, compared to 68% of GOP voters who believe Romney is the likeliest winner. That’s an increase in confidence among both groups. Voters not affiliated with either of the major parties still project Obama as most likely to win by a 49% to 32% margin, little changed from last month.

Republican confidence is little changed from late August when it comes to both houses of Congress, but Democrats are now a lot more confident that they can win back the House of Representatives. Unaffiliated voters are less confident that the GOP can hold the House and that the Democrats can keep control of the Senate.

Male voters are now evenly divided over the likely outcome of the presidential race, but female voters project Obama as the winner by 26 points. Voters under 40 give the president the lead overwhelmingly, while older voters are narrowly divided.

Both male and female voters give the edge to the Republicans when it comes to which party will control the House and Senate after the elections.

Most Evangelical Christians (57%) and Catholics (55%) expect Romney to win in November. Most other Protestants (58%) and voters of other or no faiths (62%) think the president is most likely to be reelected.

Poll Watch: Rasmussen (R) 2012 Political Predictions Survey

Rasmussen (R) 2012 Political Predictions Poll

Regardless of who you want to win, who do you think is most likely to win the presidential election this year…President Obama or Mitt Romney?

• President Obama 53%
• Mitt Romney 33%
• Not sure 13%

After the next election, which political party is most likely to have majority control in the U.S. House of Representatives…the Republicans or the Democrats?

• Republicans 59%
• Democrats 22%
• Not sure 19%

Following the election, which political party is most likely to have majority control in the U.S. Senate…the Republicans or the Democrats?

• Democrats 39%
• Republicans 38%
• Not sure 23%

National survey of 1,000 likely voters was conducted August 26-27, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points.

Inside the numbers:

Seventy-nine percent (79%) of voters in the president’s party think he is likely to be reelected, compared to 60% of GOP voters who believe Romney will win. Among voters not affiliated with either of the major parties, Obama is the projected winner by a 51% to 32% margin.

Among those who plan to vote for Obama, 90% see him as the likely winner. Seventy-one percent (71%) of Romney voters think their candidate will win.

Solid majorities of Republicans and unaffiliated voters expect the GOP to remain in charge of the House. Democrats are evenly divided on the question. Sixty-two percent (62%) of GOP voters also think their party will win a majority in the Senate, compared to 53% of Democrats who believe their party will triumph instead. Unaffiliated voters by a 42% to 35% margin say Democrats will retain their majority in the Senate.

Rudy Endorses Richard Hanna in NY-24

I’m here to endorse Richard Hanna. He is a candidate who comes from this district; understands it really, really well. He’s running for all the right reasons. And he’s someone that will protect us.

[Hanna] will make sure that our taxes remain as low as we can keep them, rather than as high as Nancy Pelosi and President Obama want to make them.

Most people realize this is the worst anti-business, anti-small business climate that we’ve ever had in Washington. I mean they basically want to crush small businesses with a health care program that is already 15-20 percent more expensive than they anticipated.

And then, there’s another reason I’m supporting [Hanna]. I told him I don’t want to see Nancy Pelosi on television on Sunday mornings anymore. (Laughs) I’m getting tired of listening to her. I’m getting tired of the very, very severe leftward swing of our government, and I think that it’s very, very damaging.

It’s about whether we continue to go in this very severe leftward direction; if we continue to go toward the kind of vision that I think Nancy Pelosi and President Obama have, which is of a social democracy rather than the kind of private economy we’ve had in the past. They’ve done more to alter our economy than any administration in history. And, we don’t have to theoretically argue about it. Let’s look at the results. Unemployment is over nine percent – heading toward 10 percent. The president promised it would be lower than eight percent. He promised we’d be growing jobs by now. We’ve lost a couple million jobs. And he wants to count jobs that he’s preserved. I’ve never heard of anyone counting jobs that they’ve preserved. I never got credit for jobs I preserved when I was mayor of New York City.

This single factor indicates that the economic policies of Nancy Pelosi, Harry Reid, President Obama – economic policies that [Hanna’s] opponent supports, strongly, are crushing this country. So, we’ve got to put a stop to it. We need a check and balance on the direction that this government is going. We need a check and balance in Washington. And we need a check and balance in Albany. One-party rule is always bad. When that party has an extreme ideology, it really is bad. That’s the context in which it’s important that [Hanna] wins. And it’s important that we win 39 more seats so we can put a stop to this leftward avalanche. And we can’t wait until 2012.

In other Rudy-related news:

Giuliani to help raise money, energize support for Blunt

As the Beacon reported several weeks ago, former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani will be in town on Friday to stump for U.S. Rep. Roy Blunt, the Republican nominee for the U.S. Senate.

He'll headline a private fundraising event Friday night at Hunter Farms, the west St. Louis County estate owned by former Ambassador Stephen Brauer (head of Hunter Engineering) and his wife, Kimmy Brauer.

Earlier Friday, Giuliani will meet with Blunt volunteers at his campaign headquarters in Sunset Hills.

Poll Watch: Rasmussen North Dakota Congressional Survey

Rasmussen North Dakota Congressional Survey

• Rick Berg (R) 48% (53%) {49%} [51%] (52%) {49%} [51%] (46%)
• Earl Pomeroy (D) 45% (44%) {46%} [44%] (43%) {45%} [44%] (40%)

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Rick Berg 55% (56%) {55%} [58%] (56%) {53%} [56%] / 37% (31%) {27%} [23%] (27%) {28%} [22%] {+18%}
• Earl Pomeroy 49% (49%) {51%} [50%] (49%) {51%} [48%] (48%) / 48% (48%) {47%} [47%] (50%) {48%} [49%] (46%) {+1%}

Survey of 500 likely voters was conducted September 20-21, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points.  Party ID breakdown: 37% Republican; 25% Democrat; 38% Independent/Other.  Results from the poll conducted August 10-11, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted July 21, 2010 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted June 15-16, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 18-19, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted April 20, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 23-24, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 9-10, 2010 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:

Berg captures 84% support from his fellow Republicans, while 91% of Democrats back Pomeroy. The GOP challenger holds an eight-point lead among voters not affiliated with either major party.