Poll Watch: Mason-Dixon North Dakota 2012 Senatorial Survey

Mason-Dixon North Dakota 2012 Senate Poll

• Rick Berg (R) 47% [47%] (46%)
• Heidi Heitkamp (D) 45% [47%] (47%)

Among Independents

• Heidi Heitkamp (D) 48% [48%] (51%)
• Rick Berg (R) 38% [43%] (36%)

Among Men

• Rick Berg (R) 57% [51%] (52%)
• Heidi Heitkamp (D) 38% [42%] (43%)

Among Women

• Heidi Heitkamp (D) 52% [51%] (50%)
• Rick Berg (R) 37% [44%] (41%)

Survey of 625 likely voters was conducted October 26-28, 2012.  The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted October 3-5, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted June 4-6, 2012 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers: 

Berg has strong support in the more conservative areas of Bismarck-Mandan and western North Dakota, while Heitkamp leads in Fargo and eastern North Dakota. Heitkamp wins in the east 50 to 41 and 52 to 41, while Berg is tops with the western voters, 54 to 39 per cent and 53 to 38 percent.

Poll Watch: Rasmussen (R) North Dakota 2012 Senatorial Survey

Rasmussen (R) North Dakota 2012 Senate Poll

• Rick Berg (R) 50% (49%)
  
• Heidi Heitkamp (D) 45% (40%)
• Some other candidate 0% (2%) 
• Undecided 5% (8%)

Survey of 600 likely voters was conducted October 17-18, 2012.  The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted July 10-11, 2012 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:

Berg, who was elected to the state’s only congressional seat two years ago, is viewed favorably by 50% of voters in the state and unfavorably by 49%. This includes 29% with a Very Favorable opinion of him and 31% with a Very Unfavorable one.

Fifty-three percent (53%) have a favorable view of Heitkamp, while 47% regard her unfavorably. This includes Very Favorable reviews from 41% and Very Unfavorable ones from 27%.

Heitkamp has the support of 95% of North Dakota Democrats, while 84% of the state’s Republicans support Berg. The Democrat leads by 13 points among voters not affiliated with either of the major parties.

Poll Watch: Forum Communications North Dakota 2012 Senatorial Survey

Forum Communications North Dakota 2012 Senate Poll

• Rick Berg (R) 50% (51%)
• Heidi Heitkamp (D) 40% (44%)
• Undecided 10% (5%)

Among Independents

• Heidi Heitkamp (D) 44%
• Rick Berg (R) 41%
• Undecided 15%

Among Men

• Rick Berg (R) 58%
• Heidi Heitkamp (D) 35%
• Undecided 8%

Among Women

• Heidi Heitkamp (D) 45%
• Rick Berg (R) 42%
• Undecided 12%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Rick Berg 48% / 42% {+6%}
• Heidi Heitkamp 47% / 44% {+3%}

Among Independents

• Heidi Heitkamp 53% / 35% {+18%}
• Rick Berg 41% / 45% {-4%}

Survey of 500 likely voters was conducted October 12-15, 2012 by Essman/Research.  The margin of error is +/- 4.3 percentage points. Party ID: 35% Republican; 19% Democrat; 42% Independent.  Results from the poll conducted May 3-8, 2012 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:

Geographically, Berg is stronger in central and western North Dakota.

Heitkamp, who lives in Mandan, is favored in the Red River Valley, including Cass and Grand Forks counties.

Berg has a majority of 61 percent in Ward County, which includes Minot, and 58 percent in Burleigh, which includes Bismarck.

Berg grew up in Hettinger and is especially strong in nearby Stark County, which includes Dickinson, where he has 77 percent — though the sample size of likely voters polled there makes the result unreliable.

On the other hand, although Berg lives in Fargo and represented a north Fargo district for many years in the state legislature, Heitkamp leads in Cass County, with 48 percent to Berg’s 43 percent. Nine percent remain undecided in Cass.

Heitkamp’s lead in Grand Forks County was a bit larger, with 52 percent. Berg polled at 40 percent there, with 8 percent undecided.

Stutsman County, which includes Jamestown, was evenly split, with each candidate at 44 percent and 13 percent undecided — though, like the Stark County results, the sample size there was too small to be reliable.

Poll Watch: Mason-Dixon North Dakota 2012 Senatorial Survey

Mason-Dixon North Dakota 2012 Senate Poll

• Heidi Heitkamp (D) 47% (47%)
• Rick Berg (R) 47% (46%)
• Undecided 6% (7%)

Among Independents

• Heidi Heitkamp (D) 48% (51%)
• Rick Berg (R) 43% (36%)
• Undecided 9% (13%)

Among Men

• Rick Berg (R) 51% (52%)
• Heidi Heitkamp (D) 42% (43%)
• Undecided 7% (5%)

Among Women

• Heidi Heitkamp (D) 51% (50%)
• Rick Berg (R) 44% (41%)
• Undecided 5% (9%)

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Heidi Heitkamp 46% / 35% {+11%}
• Rick Berg 42% / 37% {+5%}

Survey of 625 likely voters was conducted October 3-5, 2012.  The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted June 4-6, 2012 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Rasmussen (R) North Dakota Senatorial Survey

Rasmussen (R) North Dakota Senate Poll

• Rick Berg (R) 49%
  
• Heidi Heitkamp (D) 40%
• Some other candidate 2% 
• Undecided 8%

Survey of 500 likely voters was conducted July 10-11, 2012.  The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points.

Inside the numbers:

Berg leads by a 53% to 38% margin among male voters in the state, but is just barely ahead among female voters.

Heitkamp earns 76% support from North Dakota Democrats, while 85% of the state's Republican voters back Berg. But among voters not affiliated with either major political party, Heitkamp posts a 20-point lead.

Berg is viewed very favorably by 14% and very unfavorably by 20%.

For Heitkamp, very favorables are 22% and very unfavorables are 19%.

Poll Watch: Mason-Dixon North Dakota Senatorial Survey

Mason-Dixon North Dakota Senate Poll

• Heidi Heitkamp (D) 47%
• Rick Berg (R) 46%
• Undecided 7%

Among Independents

• Heidi Heitkamp (D) 51%
• Rick Berg (R) 36%
• Undecided 13%

Survey of 625 likely voters was conducted June 4-6, 2012.  The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points. Party ID: 38% Republican; 29% Democrat; 33% Independent/Other.

Poll Watch: Forum Communications North Dakota Senatorial Survey

Forum Communications North Dakota Senate Poll

• Rick Berg (R) 51%
• Heidi Heitkamp (D) 44%
• Undecided 5%

Survey of 500 likely voters was conducted May 3-8, 2012 by Essman/Research.  The margin of error is +/- 4.3 percentage points.

Poll Watch: Rasmussen North Dakota Congressional Survey

Rasmussen North Dakota Congressional Survey

• Rick Berg (R) 52% [48%] (53%) {49%} [51%] (52%) {49%} [51%] (46%)
• Earl Pomeroy (D) 42% [45%] (44%) {46%} [44%] (43%) {45%} [44%] (40%)

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Rick Berg 55% [55%] (56%) {55%} [58%] (56%) {53%} [56%] / 36% [37%] (31%) {27%} [23%] (27%) {28%} [22%] {+19%}
• Earl Pomeroy 43% [49%] (49%) {51%} [50%] (49%) {51%} [48%] (48%) / 53% [48%] (48%) {47%} [47%] (50%) {48%} [49%] (46%) {-10%}

Survey of 500 likely voters was conducted October 18-19, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points.  Party ID breakdown: 39% [37%] Republican; 35% [25%] Democrat; 26% [38%] Independent/Other.  Results from the poll conducted September 20-21, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 10-11, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted July 21, 2010 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted June 15-16, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 18-19, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted April 20, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 23-24, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 9-10, 2010 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:

Berg captures 90% support from his fellow Republicans, while 86% of Democrats back Pomeroy. The GOP challenger holds a 21-point lead among voters not affiliated with either major party.

Poll Watch: Rasmussen North Dakota Congressional Survey

Rasmussen North Dakota Congressional Survey

• Rick Berg (R) 48% (53%) {49%} [51%] (52%) {49%} [51%] (46%)
• Earl Pomeroy (D) 45% (44%) {46%} [44%] (43%) {45%} [44%] (40%)

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Rick Berg 55% (56%) {55%} [58%] (56%) {53%} [56%] / 37% (31%) {27%} [23%] (27%) {28%} [22%] {+18%}
• Earl Pomeroy 49% (49%) {51%} [50%] (49%) {51%} [48%] (48%) / 48% (48%) {47%} [47%] (50%) {48%} [49%] (46%) {+1%}

Survey of 500 likely voters was conducted September 20-21, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points.  Party ID breakdown: 37% Republican; 25% Democrat; 38% Independent/Other.  Results from the poll conducted August 10-11, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted July 21, 2010 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted June 15-16, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 18-19, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted April 20, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 23-24, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 9-10, 2010 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:

Berg captures 84% support from his fellow Republicans, while 91% of Democrats back Pomeroy. The GOP challenger holds an eight-point lead among voters not affiliated with either major party.