Poll Watch: Forum Communications North Dakota 2012 Senatorial Survey

Forum Communications North Dakota 2012 Senate Poll

• Rick Berg (R) 50% (51%)
• Heidi Heitkamp (D) 40% (44%)
• Undecided 10% (5%)

Among Independents

• Heidi Heitkamp (D) 44%
• Rick Berg (R) 41%
• Undecided 15%

Among Men

• Rick Berg (R) 58%
• Heidi Heitkamp (D) 35%
• Undecided 8%

Among Women

• Heidi Heitkamp (D) 45%
• Rick Berg (R) 42%
• Undecided 12%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Rick Berg 48% / 42% {+6%}
• Heidi Heitkamp 47% / 44% {+3%}

Among Independents

• Heidi Heitkamp 53% / 35% {+18%}
• Rick Berg 41% / 45% {-4%}

Survey of 500 likely voters was conducted October 12-15, 2012 by Essman/Research.  The margin of error is +/- 4.3 percentage points. Party ID: 35% Republican; 19% Democrat; 42% Independent.  Results from the poll conducted May 3-8, 2012 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:

Geographically, Berg is stronger in central and western North Dakota.

Heitkamp, who lives in Mandan, is favored in the Red River Valley, including Cass and Grand Forks counties.

Berg has a majority of 61 percent in Ward County, which includes Minot, and 58 percent in Burleigh, which includes Bismarck.

Berg grew up in Hettinger and is especially strong in nearby Stark County, which includes Dickinson, where he has 77 percent — though the sample size of likely voters polled there makes the result unreliable.

On the other hand, although Berg lives in Fargo and represented a north Fargo district for many years in the state legislature, Heitkamp leads in Cass County, with 48 percent to Berg’s 43 percent. Nine percent remain undecided in Cass.

Heitkamp’s lead in Grand Forks County was a bit larger, with 52 percent. Berg polled at 40 percent there, with 8 percent undecided.

Stutsman County, which includes Jamestown, was evenly split, with each candidate at 44 percent and 13 percent undecided — though, like the Stark County results, the sample size there was too small to be reliable.