Poll Watch: American Research Group 2012 Presidential Survey

ARG 2012 Presidential Poll

• Barack Obama-Joe Biden 48% {47%} [47%] (47%) {49%} [49%] (46%) 
• Mitt Romney-Paul Ryan 48% {49%} [48%] (48%) {46%} [47%] (49%)

Among Democrats

• Barack Obama-Joe Biden 89% {90%} [91%] (87%) {89%} [90%] (85%)
• Mitt Romney-Paul Ryan 7% {5%} [4%] (9%) {7%} [6%] (11%)

Among Republicans

• Mitt Romney-Paul Ryan 91% {94%} [93%] (92%) {91%} [92%] (92%)
• Barack Obama-Joe Biden 5% {3%} [3%] (5%) {3%} [5%] (5%)

Among Independents

• Mitt Romney-Paul Ryan 54% {55%} [54%] (52%) {50%} [50%] (49%)
• Barack Obama-Joe Biden 41% {39%} [40%] (42%) {43%} [43%] (44%)

Among Men

• Mitt Romney-Paul Ryan 56% {57%} [56%] (52%) {52%} [51%] (54%)
• Barack Obama-Joe Biden 41% {40%} [41%] (45%) {44%} [45%] (41%)

Among Women

• Barack Obama-Joe Biden 54% {53%} [52%] (50%) {51%} [52%] (51%)
• Mitt Romney-Paul Ryan 40% {41%} [41%] (45%) {44%} [43%] (45%)

Age 18-49

• Barack Obama-Joe Biden 51% {52%} [51%] (50%) {50%} [50%] (50%)
• Mitt Romney-Paul Ryan 44% {43%} [44%] (44%) {44%} [45%] (46%)

Age 50+

• Mitt Romney-Paul Ryan 51% {54%} [52%] (53%) {48%} [48%] (52%) 
• Barack Obama-Joe Biden 45% {42%} [43%] (45%) {48%} [48%] (43%)

Among Whites

• Mitt Romney-Paul Ryan 57% {56%} [55%] (54%) {54%} [55%] (57%)
• Barack Obama-Joe Biden 39% {39%} [40%] (42%) {43%} [41%] (39%)

Among Blacks

• Barack Obama-Joe Biden 96% {95%} [95%] (94%) {92%} [92%] (89%)
• Mitt Romney-Paul Ryan 3% {3%} [3%] (3%) {5%} [5%] (5%)

Survey of 1,200 likely voters was conducted October 25-28, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points. Party ID: 39% {39%} [38%] (39%) {38%} [40%] (38%) Democrat; 33% {34%} [34%] (33%) {32%} [34%] (34%) Republican; 28% {27%} [28%] (28%) {30%} [26%] (28%) Independent. Gender: 48% {48%} [48%] (49%) {49%} [48%] (48%) Male; 52% {52%} [52%] (51%) {51%} [52%] (52%) Female.  Race: 77% {78%} [78%] (78%) {77%} [77%] (76%) White; 12% {12%} [12%] (12%) {13%} [12%] (12%) Black. Age: 18-49: 46% {47%} [48%] (48%) {48%} [49%] (49%); 50 and older: 54% {53%} [52%] (52%) {52%} [51%] (51%).  Results from the poll conducted October 18-21, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted October 11-14, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted October 5-8, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted September 27-30, 2012 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 17-20, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 4-6, 2012 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:

Romney leads Obama 50% to 47% among likely voters interviewed on a landline (75% of likely voters). Obama leads Romney 50% to 42% among likely voters interviewed on a cell phone (25% of likely voters).

A total of 47% of likely voters say they would never vote for Obama in the general election and 46% of likely voters say they would never vote for Romney in the general election.