Sunday, October 28, 2012

Poll Watch: Rasmussen (R) Wisconsin 2012 Senatorial Survey

Rasmussen (R) Wisconsin 2012 Senate Poll
  • Tommy Thompson (R) 48% (48%) {47%} [46%] (54%) {41%} [52%] (50%) {48%} [50%] (49%)
  • Tammy Baldwin (D) 47% (46%) {51%} [49%] (43%) {48%} [36%] (38%) {44%} [36%] (42%)
  • Some other candidate 2% (3%) {1%} [2%] (1%) {5%} [6%] (5%) {4%} [4%] (4%)
  • Not sure 4% (3%) {2%} [4%] (3%) {6%} [6%] (7%) {4%} [10%] (6%)
I’m going to read you a short list of people in the news. For each, please let me know if you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable impression.

Tommy Thompson 
  • Very favorable 24% (23%) {25%} [22%] (23%)
  • Somewhat favorable 24% (25%) {22%} [27%] (36%)
  • Somewhat unfavorable 17% (16%) {16%} [18%] (20%)
  • Very unfavorable 33% (32%) {36%} [28%] (17%)
Tammy Baldwin
  • Very favorable 21% (26%) {30%} [32%] (22%)
  • Somewhat favorable 21% (19%) {22%} [17%] (21%)
  • Somewhat unfavorable 15% (8%) {10%} [13%] (16%)
  • Very unfavorable 39% (41%) {36%} [31%] (33%)
Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}
  • Tommy Thompson 48% (48%) {47%} [49%] (59%) / 50% (48%) {52%} [46%] (37%) {-2%}
  • Tammy Baldwin 42% (45%) {52%} [49%] (43%) / 54% (49%) {46%} [44%] (49%) {-12%}
Survey of 500 likely voters was conducted October 25, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted October 18, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted October 9, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 17, 2012 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted August 15, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted July 25, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted June 12, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 9, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted March 27, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 27, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted October 26, 2011 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:
Ninety-six percent (96%) of likely Wisconsin voters say they are certain they will vote in this year’s election. Among these voters, Thompson leads 49% to 46%. He leads 52% to 47% among the 88% of the state's voters who have already made up their minds whom they will vote for.

Thompson draws support from 86% of the state’s Republicans, while 89% of Wisconsin Democrats back Baldwin. Among voters not affiliated with either party, Thompson has a four-point advantage.
Thompson leads by nine points among male voters in the state but trails by six among female voters. Voters in every age demographic are narrowly divided over the two candidates.

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