Wednesday, October 31, 2012

Poll Watch: United Technologies/National Journal 2012 Presidential Survey

United Technologies/National Journal 2012 Presidential Poll
  • Barack Obama 50% (47%)
  • Mitt Romney 45% (47%)
Survey of 713 likely voters was conducted October 25-28, 2012 by Princeton Survey Research Associates International. The margin of error is +/- 4.4 percentage points. Party ID: 36% Democrat; 29% Republican; 30% Independent. Results from the poll conducted September 27-30, 2012 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:
Forty-seven percent (47%) of likely voters say they would prefer that Republicans maintain their House majority, while 44 percent want Democrats to take over; Democrats held a 45 percent to 43 percent advantage in late September. Voters, by a solid 50 percent to 40 percent margin, now say they would prefer a Democratic Senate; that’s up from a 47 percent to 42 percent advantage for Democrats in September.
The survey found an overwhelming correlation between preferences in the presidential race and the battle for congressional control. In the House, fully 85 percent of Obama voters preferred a Democratic majority, while 92 percent of Romney voters said they want the Republicans to maintain control. In the Senate, Obama voters by 89 percent to 3 percent said they preferred Democratic control, while Romney voters, by 83 percent to 9 percent, want Republicans to take the majority.
In the poll, three-fifths of likely voters say that if Romney wins they want Democrats to control at least one chamber “so they can act as a check” on his agenda; just 34 percent want Republicans to control both chambers “so they can implement his agenda.” Even among those voting for Romney, fully one-fourth say they want Democrats to control one congressional chamber.
Likewise, just 36 percent of voters want Democrats to control both chambers if Obama wins; 58 percent say they want Republicans to hold at least one to check him. About one-fourth of Obama voters say they would prefer divided control.
In its likely-voter model, the poll projected that the 2012 electorate will be virtually unchanged from 2008, with Democrats holding an 8 percentage-point advantage among voters (compared with 7 points last time) and whites representing 73 percent of voters (compared to 74 percent last time).

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