Poll Watch: POLITICO/George Washington University 2012 Battleground Brushfire Tracking Survey

POLITICO/GWU 2012 Battleground Brushfire Tracking Poll

• Barack Obama 49% (47%) {49%} [49%] (49%) {50%} [48%] (47%) {53%} [49%]
• Mitt Romney 48% (49%) {48%} [48%] (47%) {47%} [47%] (48%) {43%} [43%] 

Among Men

• Mitt Romney 55%
• Barack Obama 43%

Among Women

• Barack Obama 54%
• Mitt Romney 43%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Mitt Romney 52% (50%) [47%] (46%) {46%} [46%] / 43% (45%) [47%] (48%) {49%} [46%] {+9%}
• Barack Obama 51% (52%) [52%] (50%) {53%} [50%] / 47% (44%) [45%] (47%) {46%} [47%] {+4%}

How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President? Do you approve or disapprove of the job he is doing?

• Approve 50% (49%) [50%] (49%) {50%} [49%]
• Disapprove 49% (49%) [48%] (49%) {47%} [50%]

I am going to read you several issues. For each one, please tell me if you approve or disapprove of the job that President Obama is doing on this issue.
  
The Economy

• Approve 45% (45%) {48%} [45%] (46%) {48%} [44%]
• Disapprove 54% (53%) {51%} [53%] (52%) {51%} [54%]

The Federal Budget and Spending 

• Approve 40% (39%) {40%} [39%] (42%) {40%} [37%]
• Disapprove 58% (57%) {56%} [57%] (56%) {57%} [61%]

I would like to read you a list of issues that some people have said are important to them. Please tell me, for each one, who will better handle this issue -- Mitt Romney or Barack Obama.

The Economy

• Mitt Romney 51% (51%) {50%} [49%] (49%) {48%} [49%] (48%)
• Barack Obama 46% (45%) {47%} [47%] (47%) {49%} [44%] (45%)

Jobs

• Mitt Romney 51% (50%) {49%} [49%] (48%) {48%} [50%] 
• Barack Obama 46% (46%) {47%} [46%] (47%) {48%} [44%]

Standing Up for the Middle Class

• Barack Obama 54% (55%) {54%} [56%] (54%) {57%} [54%] (58%) 
  
• Mitt Romney 41% (41%) {42%} [40%] (41%) {38%} [40%] (35%)
  

Taxes

• Barack Obama 49% (49%) {49%} [50%] (49%) {50%} [47%] (51%)
  
• Mitt Romney 47% (47%) {47%} [44%] (46%) {46%} [47%] (45%)
  

Medicare

• Barack Obama 51% (51%) {52%} [51%] (50%) {52%} [49%] (47%)
  
• Mitt Romney 45% (43%) {43%} [43%] (42%) {43%} [45%] (44%)
  

Foreign Policy

• Barack Obama 52% (51%) {49%} [50%] (52%) {52%} [54%] (51%) 
  
• Mitt Romney 43% (42%) {45%} [44%] (40%) {43%} [39%] (38%)
  

The Federal Budget and Spending

• Mitt Romney 54% (55%) {54%} [50%] (50%) {50%}
  
• Barack Obama 42% (40%) {42%} [44%] (43%) {45%}

Sharing Your Values

• Barack Obama 49% (48%) {50%} [50%] (48%)
  
• Mitt Romney 46% (46%) {46%} [45%] (45%)
  

Being a Strong Leader 

• Barack Obama 49% (46%) {49%} [50%] (50%)
• Mitt Romney 46% (47%) {47%} [45%] (43%)

Can Get Things Done

• Mitt Romney 49% (47%) {48%} [46%] (47%)
  
• Barack Obama 45% (43%) {45%} [46%] (45%)

Regardless of who you intend to vote for – which candidate for President do you think is going to win the election?

• Barack Obama 54% (51%) {53%} [61%] (61%) {60%} [56%] 
  
• Mitt Romney 36% (37%) {37%} [31%] (29%) {30%} [33%]
  

Survey of 1,000 likely voters was conducted October 22-25, 2012 by The Tarrance Group (R) and Lake Research Partners (D). The margin of error is +/- 3.1 percentage points. Party ID: 43% (43%) {43%} [44%] (43%) {43%} [44%] Democrat; 41% (41%) {40%} [40%] (41%) {40%} [40%] Republican; 15% (15%) {15%} [16%] (15%) {15%} [15%] Independent.  Ideology: 20% (20%) {19%} [21%] (21%) {21%} [24%] Very conservative; 38% (39%) {37%} [37%] (38%) {36%} [33%] Somewhat conservative; 26% (26%) {27%} [25%] (25%) {26%} [26%] Somewhat liberal; 10% (10%) {10%} [13%] (10%) {12%} [11%] Very liberal. Race: 77% (78%) {77%} [77%] White; 12% (12%) {12%} [12%] Black; 7% (5%) {6%} [7%] Hispanic/Latino.  Click here to view crosstabs. Results from the poll conducted October 14-18, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted October 7-11, 2012 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted October 1-4, 2012 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 24-27, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted September 16-20, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 5-9, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 29 - May 3, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted February 19-22, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 6-9, 2011 are in square brackets.

Inside the numbers: 

Obama leads by 8 points among those who have already voted, 53 to 45 percent. These early voters represent 15 percent of the electorate, with many more expected to vote in the next few days — though Hurricane Sandy could change that.

But the GOP nominee maintains a potentially pivotal advantage in intensity among his supporters. Sixty percent of those who support Obama say they are “extremely likely” to vote, compared to 73 percent who back Romney. Among this group, Romney leads Obama by 9 points, 53 to 44 percent.

By any measure, the race is neck-and-neck: 43 percent say they will “definitely” vote Romney, compared to 42 percent who say the same of the president.