Poll Watch: Rasmussen (R) 2012 Political Predictions Survey

Rasmussen (R) 2012 Political Predictions Poll

Regardless of who you want to win, who do you think is most likely to win the presidential election this year…President Obama or Mitt Romney?

• President Obama 53%
• Mitt Romney 33%
• Not sure 13%

After the next election, which political party is most likely to have majority control in the U.S. House of Representatives…the Republicans or the Democrats?

• Republicans 59%
• Democrats 22%
• Not sure 19%

Following the election, which political party is most likely to have majority control in the U.S. Senate…the Republicans or the Democrats?

• Democrats 39%
• Republicans 38%
• Not sure 23%

National survey of 1,000 likely voters was conducted August 26-27, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points.

Inside the numbers:

Seventy-nine percent (79%) of voters in the president’s party think he is likely to be reelected, compared to 60% of GOP voters who believe Romney will win. Among voters not affiliated with either of the major parties, Obama is the projected winner by a 51% to 32% margin.

Among those who plan to vote for Obama, 90% see him as the likely winner. Seventy-one percent (71%) of Romney voters think their candidate will win.

Solid majorities of Republicans and unaffiliated voters expect the GOP to remain in charge of the House. Democrats are evenly divided on the question. Sixty-two percent (62%) of GOP voters also think their party will win a majority in the Senate, compared to 53% of Democrats who believe their party will triumph instead. Unaffiliated voters by a 42% to 35% margin say Democrats will retain their majority in the Senate.