Poll Watch: Rasmussen (R) 2012 Political Predictions Survey

Rasmussen (R) 2012 Political Predictions Poll

Regardless of who you want to win, who do you think is most likely to win the presidential election this year…President Obama or Mitt Romney?

• President Obama 55% [50%] (53%)
• Mitt Romney 35% [36%] (33%)
• Not sure [13%] (13%)

Note: Intrade: Barack Obama to be re-elected President in 2012: 62.3% chance. / Mitt Romney to be elected President in 2012: 37.5% chance.

After the next election, which political party is most likely to have majority control in the U.S. House of Representatives…the Republicans or the Democrats?

• Republicans 54% [51%] (59%)
• Democrats 27% [30%] (22%)
• Not sure 19% [19%] (19%)

Note: Intrade: Republicans to control House of Representatives after 2012 elections: 88.1% chance. / Democrats to control House of Representative after 2012 elections: 11.6% chance.

 
Following the election, which political party is most likely to have majority control in the U.S. Senate…the Republicans or the Democrats?

• Democrats 41% [36%] (39%)
• Republicans 36% [41%] (38%)
• Not sure 24% [23%] (23%)

Note: Intrade: Democrats to control Senate after 2012 elections: 63.2% chance. / Republicans to control Senate after 2012 elections: 24.5% chance.

 
National survey of 1,000 likely voters was conducted October 5-6, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted September 15-16, 2012 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted August 26-27, 2012 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:

Democrats remain more much more confident in their candidate than Republicans are. Eighty-seven percent (87%) of voters in the president’s party think Obama is likely to win, compared to 67% of GOP voters who feel Romney is more likely to be elected. Confidence has been increasing among both groups since August.

But now most voters not affiliated with either of the major parties (54%) believe for the first time that Obama is the likely winner. Only 33% of these voters think a Romney victory is likely, with another 13% who are undecided.

Predictably, most Republicans and Democrats expect their respective party to be in charge of both houses of Congress after the election. Unaffiliated voters, on the other hand, think the GOP will remain in charge of the House but are evenly divided over which party will control the Senate next year.