Poll Watch: Rasmussen (R) Pennsylvania 2012 Republican Primary Survey

Rasmussen (R) Pennsylvania 2012 GOP Primary Poll

• Rick Santorum 42%
• Mitt Romney 38%
• Ron Paul 7%
• Newt Gingrich 6%
• Some other candidate 2%
• Undecided 5%

If the 2012 Republican Primary for president were held today and you only had a choice between Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum, for whom would you vote?  

• Rick Santorum 46%
• Mitt Romney 44%

Survey of 750 likely Republican primary voters was conducted April 4, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points. 

Inside the numbers: 

Eighty-three percent (83%) of Republican primary voters in Pennsylvania now believe Romney will be the party’s presidential nominee. Only 10% think Santorum will emerge as the standard-bearer. Fifty-two percent (52%) feel Romney would be the strongest candidate against Obama, while 27% believe that of Santorum.

Seventy-eight percent (78%) think if Romney is nominated he is at least somewhat likely to defeat the incumbent, while 56% say the same of Santorum. But while 40% feel a Romney victory is Very Likely, only 24% believe Santorum is Very Likely to capture the White House.

Most Pennsylvania Republicans think Gingrich and Paul are not likely to win in November.

Pennsylvania Republicans vote on April 24, and one-in-three (33%) say they still could change their minds.

While voters in most states give the edge to electability, Pennsylvania Republicans are evenly divided over whether it’s more important to choose a candidate who has the best chance of beating Obama or one who does the best job representing party values. Forty-five percent (45%) favor each position. Romney has the support of 53% of those who prize electability more. Santorum earns 51% of the vote from those who put more emphasis on the candidate truest to party values.

Santorum is viewed favorably by 69% of likely primary voters in the state, Romney by 66%, Gingrich by 50% and Paul by 36%.

Santorum leads Romney by eight among male voters and runs even with him among female voters. Very Conservative primary voters favor Santorum over Romney 55% to 30%, but Romney posts a similar lead among those who are Somewhat Conservative and also leads among non-conservatives.

Married voters give the edge to Santorum, while unmarrieds are tied between the two.

Santorum has a sizable lead among Evangelical Christian primary voters but trails Romney in all other religious demographic categories.

Among all likely GOP primary voters in the state, 81% say they will vote for the party nominee even if their favorite doesn’t win. Nine percent (9%) will vote for Obama if that’s the case, and six percent (6%) will choose a third party candidate.