Sunday, May 06, 2012

Poll Watch: USA Today/Gallup 2012 Swing States Presidential Survey

USA Today/Gallup 2012 Swing States Presidential Poll
  • Barack Obama 47% {51%} (46%) [47%] {43%}
  • Mitt Romney 45% {42%} (48%) [48%] {48%} 
Among Men
  • Mitt Romney 50% {48%}
  • Barack Obama 42% {47%}
Among Women
  • Barack Obama 52% {54%}
  • Mitt Romney 40% {36%}
Survey of 951 registered voters was conducted April 26 - May 2, 2012 in Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted March 20-26, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 14-21, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted January 27-28, 2012 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted November 30 - December 7, 2011 are in curly brackets.

Inside the numbers:
Among those surveyed, 60% say a President Romney would do a good or very good job handling the economy over the next four years; 52% say that of Obama. Even among the president's supporters, four in 10 predict Romney would do a good job. In a direct comparison, Romney edges Obama, 47%-44%, as the one who would do a better job.

By a yawning 27 points, those surveyed describe Obama as more likable than Romney — not a frivolous asset. The candidate viewed as more likable has prevailed in every election since 1980. Even among Romney's supporters, one in four call Obama more likable.

By 10 points, voters say Obama is more likely to care about the needs of people like themselves. By 7 points, they call Obama a stronger and more decisive leader.

Romney is seen as equally capable of managing the government, leading Obama by 2 points on that trait.

For the first time, Democrats are more likely than Republicans to say they are extremely or very enthusiastic about voting — a shift from a 14-percentage-point GOP advantage at the end of last year to an 11-point deficit now.

That drop is driven by Republicans who describe themselves as moderate or liberal, about a third of the party, even though the candidate widely viewed as the most moderate in the GOP primary field is poised to be nominated. Just 7% of moderate and liberal Republicans now say they are extremely enthusiastic, down from 24% in January and compared with 34% of conservative Republicans who feel that way.

About a third of voters say Obama's political views and their own are about the same while a 54% majority say the president is more liberal than they are. Just one in 10 say he's more conservative.

About a third of voters say Romney's political views and their own are about the same, and he's seen as roughly in the middle of the political spectrum: About one in three call him more conservative than they are; about one in four call him more liberal.

Seven of 10 voters in those states say their minds are firmly made up and won't change. Both campaigns are focused not only on firing up enthusiasm among those core supporters but also winning over the 7% who are undecided and the 24% who are only loosely committed to a candidate.

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