Poll Watch: Washington Post Virginia 2012 Senatorial Survey

Washington Post Virginia 2012 Senate Poll

• Tim Kaine (D) 46% (46%)
• George Allen (R) 46% (46%)

Among Independents

• Tim Kaine (D) 46% (39%)
• George Allen (R) 45% (49%)

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• George Allen 46% (51%) / 31% (26%) {+15%}
• Tim Kaine 41% (56%) / 41% (28%) {0%}

Survey of 964 registered voters was conducted April 28 - May 2, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points.  Party ID: 31% (32%) Democrat; 27% (24%) Republican; 36% (35%) Independent.  Results from the poll conducted April 28 - May 4, 2011 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:

The poll shows a clear gender gap: Allen has an eight-point edge among male registered voters, while women lean toward Kaine by seven. Kaine has the advantage among better-educated voters, but the two candidates are running close to even among both lower- and upper-income Virginians.

Kaine leads among moderates, 53 percent to 38 percent. And the Democrat is up 84 percent to 8 percent among African American voters, a commanding lead that still doesn’t quite match Obama’s 97 to 1 percent advantage over Romney.

Like Obama, Kaine has a solid lead in the suburbs closest to Washington, but the race is far closer in the rapidly growing exurban counties.