Poll Watch: Harper Polling (R) Alaska 2014 Senatorial Survey

Harper Polling (R) Alaska 2014 Senate Poll 

• Sean Parnell (R) 45.93%
• Mark Begich (D) 40.03%
• Not sure 14.04%
  

• Mark Begich (D) 46.64%
• Sarah Palin (R) 40.37%
• Not sure 12.99%
  

• Mark Begich (D) 43.93%
• Mead Treadwell (R) 33.54%
• Not sure 22.53%
  

• Mark Begich (D) 52.29%
• Joe Miller (R) 29.35%
• Not sure 18.35%
  

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Sean Parnell 50.13% / 38.21% {+11.92%}
• Mark Begich 47.58% / 39.05% {+8.53%}
• Mead Treadwell 31.60% / 27.00% {+4.60%}
• Sarah Palin 33.68% / 59.98% {-26.30%}
• Joe Miller 21.42% / 55.94% {-34.52%}
  

GOP Senate Primary

• Sean Parnell 31.52% 
• Sarah Palin 26.65% 
• Mead Treadwell 14.33%
• Joe Miller 12.32%
• Not sure 15.19% 

Survey of 1,157 likely voters was conducted January 29-30, 2013.  The margin of error is +/- 2.88 percentage points.  Party ID: 30.94% Republican; 14.95% Democrat; 54.11% Other.  Ideology: 32.93% Somewhat conservative; 32.32% Moderate; 21.26% Very conservative; 10.89% Liberal.  Click here to view crosstabs.

Inside the numbers:

In head-to-head matchups against Democratic Senator Mark Begich, Parnell is the only Republican who starts out with a lead (Parnell 46%, Begich 40%). Parnell’s strength is among younger voters 18-to-35 and 36-to-45 years old who pick Parnell 43%-38% and 51%-36% respectively.

Parnell leads among Taxes & Spending voters (52%-37%), National Debt voters (70%-17%) and Oil & Natural Gas voters (49%-37%) while Begich leads with Health Care voters (66%-19%) and Economy voters (45%-41%). The two are tied among Jobs voters (41%-41%).

Palin trails Begich 40%-47%. Palin wins among Men (46%-42%) but trails Begich with Women (51%-36%). Begich enjoys stronger support among Democrats (90%) than Palin does among Republicans (68%). Independent and third party voters prefer Begich (52%-34%).

Joe Miller is the only candidate who lets Begich get above 50% on the ballot. Miller’s weakness in a general election results from his failure to win Somewhat Conservative voters. While Parnell (64%-20%), Palin (54%-31%) and Treadwell (45%-30%) beat Begich with these voters, Miller trails 38%-39%.

In a GOP Senate primary, Republicans who consider themselves “Very Conservative” give Palin the edge over Parnell 26%-25%. Parnell’s strength is fueled by “Somewhat Conservative” voters who pick him over Palin 39%-25%.

Palin’s standing is not the result of her being unpopular with Alaska Republicans. Fifty-six percent of Republicans hold a favorable opinion of her, while 38% say unfavorable. The problem for Palin is that Sean Parnell has a 74% favorable image with Republicans, 16% say unfavorable.

Joe Miller has a net -9% unfavorable image rating (36%-47%) with Republicans. Mead Treadwell boasts a solid 42% favorable, 19% unfavorable image among Republicans.