Sunday, December 28, 2014

Poll Watch: CNN/ORC 2016 Republican Nomination Survey

CNN/ORC 2016 GOP Nomination Poll
  • Jeb Bush 23% [14%] (8%) {12%} [13%] (9%) {10%} [6%] (10%)
  • Chris Christie 13% [9%] (13%) {8%} [9%] (8%) {10%} [24%] (17%)
  • Ben Carson 7% [11%]
  • Mike Huckabee 6% [10%] (12%) {11%} [10%] (10%) {14%}
  • Rand Paul 6% [8%] (12%) {14%} [13%] (16%) {13%} [13%] (13%)
  • Marco Rubio 5% [3%] (6%) {8%} [6%] (5%) {9%} [9%] (9%)
  • Paul Ryan 5% [9%] (11%) {10%} [12%] (15%) {9%} [11%] (16%)
  • Ted Cruz 4% [7%] (8%) {9%} [7%] (8%) {8%} [10%] (7%)
  • Bobby Jindal 4% [1%]
  • Rick Perry 4% [5%] (11%) {6%} [8%] (11%) {8%} [7%] (6%)
  • Scott Walker 4% [5%] (5%) {5%} [7%]
  • John Kasich 3% [3%]
  • Rick Santorum 2% [2%] (3%) {4%} [2%] (3%) {4%} [6%] (5%)
  • Mike Pence 0% [1%]
  • Rob Portman 0% [0%]
  • Someone else (vol.) 5% [6%] (6%) {6%} [4%] (6%) {8%} [6%] (6%)
  • None/No one (vol.) 5% [2%] (2%) {2%] [4%] (4%) {3%} [2%] (4%)
  • No opinion 3% [4%] (3%) {5%} [7%] (5%) {4%} [6%] (6%)
Among Republicans
  • Jeb Bush 28% [20%] (10%) {10%} [15%] (11%) {10%} [6%] (13%)
  • Chris Christie 14% [11%] (13%) {8%} [8%] (6%) {8%} [28%] (17%)
  • Mike Huckabee 9% [11%] (12%) {14%} [12%] (9%) {17%}
  • Bobby Jindal 6% [2%]
  • Paul Ryan 5% [7%] (14%) {15%} [14%] (19%) {9%} [11%] (17%)
  • Marco Rubio 5% [2%] (6%) {9%} [6%] (5%) {12%} [10%] (10%)
  • Ted Cruz 5% [7%] (6%) {9%} [6%] (11%) {5%} [9%] (7%)
  • Ben Carson 5% [6%] 
  • Rand Paul 5% [6%] (12%) {8%} [12%] (10%) {13%} [12%] (9%)
  • Scott Walker 4% [5%] (4%) {4%} [7%] 
  • Rick Perry 3% [4%] (10%) {7%} [7%] (11%) {8%} [8%] (7%)
  • Rick Santorum 1% [2%] (4%) {3%} [2%] (4%) {5%} [7%] (3%)
  • John Kasich 1% [1%]
  • Mike Pence 0% [0%]
  • Rob Portman 0% [0%]
  • Someone else (vol.) 2% [7%] (5%) {7%} [3%] (8%) {5%} [6%] (7%)
  • None/No one (vol.) 5% [2%] (1%) {2%} [2%] (3%) {4%} [1%] (4%)
  • No opinion 3% [4%] (3%) {4%} [8%] (5%) {3%} [3%] (5%)
Among GOP-Leaning Independents
  • Jeb Bush 18% [7%] (5%) {14%} [10%] (7%) {10%} [6%] (6%)
  • Chris Christie 13% [6%] (12%) {7%} [10%] (11%) {13%} [20%] (18%
  • Ben Carson 9% [15%]
  • Rand Paul 7% [10%] (13%) {21%} [15%] (22%) {13%} [15%] (17%)
  • Marco Rubio 6% [4%] (6%) {7%} [6%] (5%) {5%} [7%] (9%)
  • Rick Perry 6% [6%] (12%) {5%} [8%] (12%) {7%} [7%] (6%) 
  • Paul Ryan 5% [11%] (7%) {5%} [8%] (11%) {10%} [12%]  (15%)
  • John Kasich 5% [4%]
  • Scott Walker 4% [6%] (5%) {6%} [6%] 
  • Rick Santorum 4% [2%] (3%) {4%} [2%] (2%) {3%} [5%] (7%)
  • Bobby Jindal 3% [1%]
  • Mike Huckabee 2% [10%] (13%) {8%} [7%] (11%) {10%}
  • Ted Cruz 2% [7%] (10%) {9%} [9%] (6%) {13%} [12%] (7%) 
  • Mike Pence 1% [2%]
  • Rob Portman 0% [0%]
  • Someone else (vol.) 7% [6%] (7%) {5%} [5%] (3%) {12%} [6%] (4%)
  • None/No one (vol.) 5% [1%] (3%) {3%} [6%] (6%) {2%} [3%] (4%)
  • No opinion 2% [3%] (4%) {7%} [7%] (5%) {4%} [8%] (7%)
Among Men
  • Jeb Bush 23% [11%] (7%) {12%} [14%] (7%) {9%} [2%] (9%) 
  • Chris Christie 14% [9%] (12%) {7%} [8%] (9%) {6%} [23%] (16%)
  • Rand Paul 8% [10%] (14%) {17%} [17%] (17%) {17%} [15%] (13%)
  • Ben Carson 6% [12%]
  • Scott Walker 6% [9%] (6%) {7%} [8%] 
  • Ted Cruz 6% [8%] (10%) {10%} [9%] (10%) {10%} [12%] (12%) 
  • Paul Ryan 5% [8%] (12%) {9%} [7%] (15%) {12%} [10%] (14%)
  • Mike Huckabee 5% [8%] (11%) {11%} [8%] (11%) {14%}
  • Rick Perry 4% [5%] (9%) {8%} [11%] (10%) {7%} [8%] (7%) 
  • Bobby Jindal 4% [2%]
  • John Kasich 4% [1%] 
  • Marco Rubio 3% [3%] (5%) {6%} [4%] (6%) {7%} [11%] (11%)
  • Rick Santorum 3% [1%] (3%) {4%} [1%] (2%) {2%} [6%] (6%)
  • Mike Pence 1% [0%]
  • Rob Portman 0% [0%]
  • Someone else (vol.) 4% [7%] (7%) {5%} [3%] (7%) {8%} [6%] (5%)
  • None/No one (vol.) 3% [2%] (2%) {1%} [4%] (2%) {4%} [2%] (3%)
  • No opinion 3% [5%] (1%) {3%} [6%] (3%) {4%} [4%] (5%)
Among Women
  • Jeb Bush 24% [16%] (9%) {10%} [12%] (11%) {10%} [10%] (11%)
  • Chris Christie 12% [9%] (13%) {8%} [9%] (7%) {15%} [24%] (19%)
  • Mike Huckabee 8% [13%] (15%) {12%} [12%] (9%) {14%}
  • Ben Carson 7% [9%] 
  • Marco Rubio 7% [4%] (7%) {11%} [8%] (5%) {11%} [7%] (7%)
  • Paul Ryan 6% [10%] (9%) {12%} [17%] (13%) {6%} [13%] (19%
  • Bobby Jindal 5% [1%]
  • Rick Perry 5% [5%] (13%) {3%} [4%] (13%) {9%} [6%] (6%)
  • Rand Paul 5% [6%] (10%) {10%} [10%] (14%) {9%} [11%] (12%)
  • Scott Walker 3% [2%] (3%) {3%} [6%]
  • Ted Cruz 2% [6%] (6%) {8%} [5%] (6%) {7%} [8%] (3%)
  • John Kasich 2% [4%]
  • Rick Santorum 2% [2%] (3%) {3%} [2%] (4%) {7%} [6%] (4%) 
  • Mike Pence 0% [2%]
  • Rob Portman 0% [0%]
  • Someone else (vol.) 6% [6%] (5%) {7%} [4%] (4%) {8%} [6%] (6%)
  • None/No one (vol.) 6% [2%] (1%) {4%} [3%] (7%) {3%} [2%] (6%)
  • No opinion 1% [3%] (5%) {8%} [9%] (6%) {3%} [7%] (7%)
Survey of 453 Republicans and GOP-leaning Independents was conducted December 18-21, 2014.  The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points. Party ID: 54% [62%] (59%) {55%} [61%] (50%) {52%} Republican; 46% [38%] (41%) {45%} [39%] (50%) {48%} Independent. Results from the poll conducted November 21-23, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted July 18-20, 2014 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted May 29 - June 1, 2014 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 2-4, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted March 7-9, 2014 are in parentheses.   Results from the poll conducted January 31 - February 2, 2014 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 18-20, 2013 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 6-8, 2013 are in parentheses.

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