Poll Watch: Rasmussen (R) 2016 Presidential Survey

Rasmussen (R) 2016 Presidential Poll

• Hillary Clinton (D) 43% (44%) {45%} [43%] (41%) {41%} [42%] (43%) {43%} [42%] (39%) {40%} [43%] (39%) {42%} [41%] (43%) {44%} [38%] (38%) 
• Donald Trump (R) 39% (39%) {38%} [42%] (43%) {42%} [41%] (40%) {42%} [41%] (44%) {42%} [39%] (40%) {38%} [39%] (40%) {40%} [40%] (37%)
• Gary Johnson (L) 7% (7%) {7%} [7%] (8%) {8%} [9%] (8%) {6%} [7%] (8%) {7%} [9%] (7%) {9%} [9%] (8%) {6%} [9%] (8%) 
• Jill Stein (G) 2% (2%) {2%} [2%] (3%) {2%} [2%] (2%) {2%} [2%] (2%) {2%} [2%] (3%) {2%} [3%] (2%) {3%}

Survey of 1,500 likely voters was conducted October 9-11, 2016. The margin of error is +/- 2.5 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted October 6 and 9-10, 2016 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted October 5-6 and 9, 2016 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted October 4-6, 2016 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted October 3-5, 2016 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted October 2-4, 2016 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 29 - October 3, 2016 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 28 - October 2, 2016 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted September 27-29, 2016 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 26-28, 2016 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 20-21, 2016 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted September 12-13, 2016 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 6-7, 2016 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted August 29-30, 2016 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted August 23-24, 2016 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted August 15-16, 2016 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted August 9-10, 2016 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted August 1-2, 2016 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted July 5, 2016 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted May 31 - June 1, 2016 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:

Eighty-two percent (82%) of voters now say they are sure how they will vote. Clinton holds a narrow 48% to 46% lead over Trump among these voters. On Monday, she was ahead 51% to 45% in this group. Johnson now picks up for percent (4%) support and Stein two percent (2%) among those certain of how they will vote.

Among voters who say they could still change their minds between now and Election Day, it’s Clinton 45%, Trump 28%, Johnson 23% and Stein five percent (5%).

Trump’s support remains lower among his fellow Republicans (71%) than Clinton’s is among Democrats (78%). But he continues to lead among voters not affiliated with either major party. Clinton draws 16% of the GOP vote, while 11% of Democrats prefer Trump. Eighty-six percent (86%) of Republicans and 85% of Democrats are certain how they will vote, compared to 72% of unaffiliateds.

The candidates run even among men, a voter bloc that has supported Trump in most previous surveys. Clinton still holds a seven-point advantage among women.