Poll Watch: Rasmussen (R) 2016 Presidential Survey

Rasmussen (R) 2016 Presidential Poll

• Donald Trump (R) 43% [39%] (39%) {38%} [42%] (43%) {42%} [41%] (40%) {42%} [41%] (44%) {42%} [39%] (40%) {38%} [39%] (40%) {40%} [40%] (37%) 
• Hillary Clinton (D) 41% [43%] (44%) {45%} [43%] (41%) {41%} [42%] (43%) {43%} [42%] (39%) {40%} [43%] (39%) {42%} [41%] (43%) {44%} [38%] (38%) 
• Gary Johnson (L) 6% [7%] (7%) {7%} [7%] (8%) {8%} [9%] (8%) {6%} [7%] (8%) {7%} [9%] (7%) {9%} [9%] (8%) {6%} [9%] (8%) 
• Jill Stein (G) 2% [2%] (2%) {2%} [2%] (3%) {2%} [2%] (2%) {2%} [2%] (2%) {2%} [2%] (3%) {2%} [3%] (2%) {3%}

Survey of 1,500 likely voters was conducted October 10-12, 2016. The margin of error is +/- 2.5 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted October 9-11, 2016 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted October 6 and 9-10, 2016 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted October 5-6 and 9, 2016 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted October 4-6, 2016 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted October 3-5, 2016 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted October 2-4, 2016 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 29 - October 3, 2016 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 28 - October 2, 2016 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted September 27-29, 2016 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 26-28, 2016 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 20-21, 2016 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted September 12-13, 2016 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 6-7, 2016 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted August 29-30, 2016 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted August 23-24, 2016 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted August 15-16, 2016 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted August 9-10, 2016 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted August 1-2, 2016 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted July 5, 2016 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted May 31 - June 1, 2016 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:

Eighty-four percent (84%) now say they are certain how they will vote in this year’s presidential election, and among these voters, Trump posts a 49% to 46% lead over Clinton. Among voters who say they still could change their minds between now and Election Day, it’s Clinton 40%, Trump 37%, Johnson 19% and Stein four percent (4%).

Trump has 75% support among Republicans, nearly identical to Clinton’s 76% backing among Democrats. He has 15% of the Democratic vote; she picks up 13% GOP support. Trump holds a double-digit advantage among voters not affiliated with either major political party.

Johnson gets 13% of the unaffiliated vote, but like Stein is in low single digits among Democrats and Republicans.

Clinton continues to lead among women, while Trump has regained his advantage among men. Those under 40 still prefer the Democrat but also remain the most undecided. Older voters favor Trump. The older the voter, the more likely he or she is to be certain of their vote.

Trump remains ahead among whites and has a slight lead among other minority voters. He appears to be making a dent in the black vote, but blacks still overwhelmingly favor Clinton.

Ninety (90%) of voters who Strongly Approve of the job President Obama is doing choose Clinton. Among voters who Strongly Disapprove of the president’s job performance, 89% prefer Trump.