Poll Watch: Monmouth University 2012 Presidential Survey

Monmouth University 2012 Presidential Poll

• Barack Obama 48% [45%] (46%) {48%} [46%] (47%)
• Mitt Romney 48% [48%] (47%) {45%} [45%] (46%)
• Other candidate 2% [3%] (2%) {3%} [4%] (3%)
• Undecided 2% [5%] (5%) {4%} [6%] (4%)

Among Independents

• Mitt Romney 53% [52%] (44%) {41%} [40%] (39%) 
• Barack Obama 37% [33%] (41%) {41%} [37%] (41%)
• Other candidate 6% [7%] (6%) {8%} [11%] (9%)
• Undecided 3% [8%] (9%) {10%} [13%] (12%)

Among Men

• Mitt Romney 51% [51%] (49%) {45%} [44%] (44%)
• Barack Obama 44% [40%] (44%) {43%} [40%] (43%)
• Other candidate 3% [4%] (3%) {5%} [7%] (5%)
• Undecided 2% [5%] (5%) {7%} [9%] (7%)

Among Women

• Barack Obama 51% [49%] (48%) {53%} [50%] (49%)
• Mitt Romney 46% [45%] (46%) {39%} [38%] (40%)
• Other candidate 2% [2%] (1%) {3%} [4%] (5%)
• Undecided 2% [4%] (5%) {6%} [7%] (6%)

Who do you trust more to handle the economy and jobs – Mitt Romney or Barack Obama? 

• Mitt Romney 50% [50%] (49%) {45%} [45%]
• Barack Obama 46% [44%] (45%) {48%} [45%]

Who do you trust more to handle Social Security and Medicare – Mitt Romney or Barack Obama?

• Barack Obama 49% [45%] (46%) {50%} [46%]
• Mitt Romney 46% [48%] (45%) {42%} [43%]

Who do you trust more to handle the federal budget and national debt – Mitt Romney or Barack Obama?

• Mitt Romney 49% [51%] (48%) {47%} [46%]
• Barack Obama 46% [42%] (44%) {47%} [44%]

Who do you trust more to handle foreign policy – Mitt Romney or Barack Obama?

• Barack Obama 49% [47%] (47%) {51%}
• Mitt Romney 45% [46%] (45%) {42%}

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Mitt Romney 46% [49%] (46%) {41%} [40%] (38%) / 41% [39%] (39%) {40%} [39%] (37%) {+5%}
• Barack Obama 47% [45%] (46%) {46%} [45%] (45%) / 44% [45%] (45%) {43%} [43%] (43%) {+3%}

Among Independents

• Mitt Romney 48% [53%] (42%) {33%} [34%] (30%) / 34% [31%] (39%) {34%} [32%] (35%) {+14%}
  
• Barack Obama 36% [35%] (43%) {36%} [33%] (39%) / 50% [50%] (45%) {40%} [42%] (39%) {-14%}

Among Men

• Mitt Romney 48% [52%] (46%) {39%} [39%] (38%) / 38% [37%] (38%) {34%} [32%] (34%) {+10%}
• Barack Obama 42% [40%] (45%) {42%} [38%] (41%) / 48% [48%] (47%) {42%} [44%] (43%) {-6%} 

Among Women

• Barack Obama 52% [49%] (48%) {50%} [47%] (45%) / 41% [43%] (43%) {37%} [36%] (37%) {+11%}
• Mitt Romney 44% [47%] (45%) {36%} [32%] (31%) / 43% [41%] (40%) {43%} [43%] (34%) {+1%}

National survey of 1,417 likely voters was conducted November 1-4, 2012 by Braun Research and SurveyUSA. The margin of error is +/- 2.6 percentage points. Party ID: 35% [35%] (35%) {35%} Democrat; 31% [31%] (32%) {31%} Republican; 34% [34%] (33%) {34%} Independent.  Results from the poll conducted October 18-21, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted October 8-10, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted September 13-16, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 15-19, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted June 4-6, 2012 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Monmouth University 2012 Presidential Survey

Monmouth University 2012 Presidential Poll

• Mitt Romney 48% (47%) {45%} [45%] (46%)
• Barack Obama 45% (46%) {48%} [46%] (47%)
• Other candidate 3% (2%) {3%} [4%] (3%)
• Undecided 5% (5%) {4%} [6%] (4%)

Among Independents

• Mitt Romney 52% (44%) {41%} [40%] (39%) 
• Barack Obama 33% (41%) {41%} [37%] (41%)
• Other candidate 7% (6%) {8%} [11%] (9%)
• Undecided 8% (9%) {10%} [13%] (12%)

Among Men

• Mitt Romney 51% (49%) {45%} [44%] (44%)
• Barack Obama 40% (44%) {43%} [40%] (43%)
• Other candidate 4% (3%) {5%} [7%] (5%)
• Undecided 5% (5%) {7%} [9%] (7%)

Among Women

• Barack Obama 49% (48%) {53%} [50%] (49%)
• Mitt Romney 45% (46%) {39%} [38%] (40%)
• Other candidate 2% (1%) {3%} [4%] (5%)
• Undecided 4% (5%) {6%} [7%] (6%)

Who do you trust more to handle the economy and jobs – Mitt Romney or Barack Obama? 

• Mitt Romney 50% (49%) {45%} [45%]
• Barack Obama 44% (45%) {48%} [45%]

Who do you trust more to handle Social Security and Medicare – Mitt Romney or Barack Obama?

• Mitt Romney 48% (45%) {42%} [43%]
• Barack Obama 45% (46%) {50%} [46%]

Who do you trust more to handle the federal budget and national debt – Mitt Romney or Barack Obama?

• Mitt Romney 51% (48%) {47%} [46%]
• Barack Obama 42% (44%) {47%} [44%]

Who do you trust more to handle foreign policy – Mitt Romney or Barack Obama?

• Barack Obama 47% (47%) {51%}
• Mitt Romney 46% (45%) {42%}

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Paul Ryan 45% {38%} [35%] / 34% {33%} [30%] {+11%} 
• Mitt Romney 49% (46%) {41%} [40%] (38%) / 39% (39%) {40%} [39%] (37%) {+10%}
• Barack Obama 45% (46%) {46%} [45%] (45%) / 45% (45%) {43%} [43%] (43%) {0%}
• Joe Biden 37% {34%} [32%] / 46% {39%} [39%] {-9%}

Among Independents

• Mitt Romney 53% (42%) {33%} [34%] (30%) / 31% (39%) {34%} [32%] (35%) {+22%}
  
• Paul Ryan 49% {34%} [28%] / 27% {27%} [23%] {+22%}
• Barack Obama 35% (43%) {36%} [33%] (39%) / 50% (45%) {40%} [42%] (39%) {-15%}
• Joe Biden 27% {24%} [22%] / 52% {35%} [35%] {-25%}

Among Men

• Paul Ryan 49% {36%} [35%] / 31% {28%} [25%] {+18%} 
• Mitt Romney 52% (46%) {39%} [39%] (38%) / 37% (38%) {34%} [32%] (34%) {+15%}
• Barack Obama 40% (45%) {42%} [38%] (41%) / 48% (47%) {42%} [44%] (43%) {-8%} 
• Joe Biden 34% {29%} [27%] / 50% {40%} [39%] {-16%} 

Among Women

• Barack Obama 49% (48%) {50%} [47%] (45%) / 43% (43%) {37%} [36%] (37%) {+6%}
• Mitt Romney 47% (45%) {36%} [32%] (31%) / 41% (40%) {43%} [43%] (34%) {+6%}
• Paul Ryan 42% {30%} [27%] / 36% {33%} [29%] {+6%}
• Joe Biden 39% {35%} [32%] / 42% {31%} [32%] {-3%}

Did you read or hear anything about Tuesday’s presidential debate, or not? Were you able to watch the full 90 minute debate, did you see clips or part of the debate on TV or the internet, or did you only read or hear about the debate?

• Watched full debate 56% 
• Saw clips or part 24% 
• Only read/heard about 9% 
• Did not follow debate 10%

Did the debate change your opinion about who you would vote for, or not?

• Yes 7%
• No 81%

National survey of 1,402 likely voters was conducted October 18-21, 2012 by Braun Research and SurveyUSA. The margin of error is +/- 2.6 percentage points. Party ID: 35% (35%) {35%} Democrat; 31% (32%) {31%} Republican; 34% (33%) {34%} Independent.  Results from the poll conducted October 8-10, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted September 13-16, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 15-19, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted June 4-6, 2012 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Monmouth University 2012 Presidential Survey

Monmouth University 2012 Presidential Poll

• Mitt Romney 47% {45%} [45%] (46%)
• Barack Obama 46% {48%} [46%] (47%)
• Other candidate 2% {3%} [4%] (3%)
• Undecided 5% {4%} [6%] (4%)

Among Independents

• Mitt Romney 44% {41%} [40%] (39%) 
• Barack Obama 41% {41%} [37%] (41%)
• Other candidate 6% {8%} [11%] (9%)
• Undecided 9% {10%} [13%] (12%)

Among Men

• Mitt Romney 49% {45%} [44%] (44%)
• Barack Obama 44% {43%} [40%] (43%)
• Other candidate 3% {5%} [7%] (5%)
• Undecided 5% {7%} [9%] (7%)

Among Women

• Barack Obama 48% {53%} [50%] (49%)
• Mitt Romney 46% {39%} [38%] (40%)
• Other candidate 1% {3%} [4%] (5%)
• Undecided 5% {6%} [7%] (6%)

Who do you trust more to handle the economy and jobs – Mitt Romney or Barack Obama? 

• Mitt Romney 49% {45%} [45%]
• Barack Obama 45% {48%} [45%]

Who do you trust more to handle Social Security and Medicare – Mitt Romney or Barack Obama?

• Barack Obama 46% {50%} [46%]
• Mitt Romney 45% {42%} [43%]

Who do you trust more to handle the federal budget and national debt – Mitt Romney or Barack Obama?

• Mitt Romney 48% {47%} [46%]
• Barack Obama 44% {47%} [44%]

Who do you trust more to handle foreign policy – Mitt Romney or Barack Obama?

• Barack Obama 47% {51%}
• Mitt Romney 45% {42%}

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Mitt Romney 46% {41%} [40%] (38%) / 39% {40%} [39%] (37%) {+7%}
• Barack Obama 46% {46%} [45%] (45%) / 45% {43%} [43%] (43%) {+1%}

Among Independents

• Mitt Romney 42% {33%} [34%] (30%) / 39% {34%} [32%] (35%) {+3%}
  
• Barack Obama 43% {36%} [33%] (39%) / 45% {40%} [42%] (39%) {-2%}

Among Men

• Mitt Romney 46% {39%} [39%] (38%) / 38% {34%} [32%] (34%) {+8%}
• Barack Obama 45% {42%} [38%] (41%) / 47% {42%} [44%] (43%) {-2%} 

Among Women

• Barack Obama 48% {50%} [47%] (45%) / 43% {37%} [36%] (37%) {+5%}
• Mitt Romney 45% {36%} [32%] (31%) / 40% {43%} [43%] (34%) {+5%}

Do you think Paul Ryan or Joe Biden will win this week's vice presidential debate?

• Paul Ryan 40%
• Joe Biden 31%

National survey of 1,360 likely voters was conducted October 8-10, 2012 by Braun Research and SurveyUSA. The margin of error is +/- 2.7 percentage points. Party ID: 35% {35%} Democrat; 32% {31%} Republican; 33% {34%} Independent.  Results from the poll conducted September 13-16, 2012 are in curly  brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 15-19, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted June 4-6, 2012 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Braun Research/cn|2 Kentucky Senatorial Survey

Braun Research/cn|2 Kentucky Senatorial Survey

• Rand Paul (R) 46.5% [43.4%] (42.1%) {41.2%} [40.6%] (41%)
• Jack Conway (D) 39.0% [39.5%] (37.4%) {41.7%} [31.4%] (38%)
• Undecided 12.9% [16.6%] (19.5%) {16.4%} [27.0%] (19%)

Among Men

• Rand Paul (R) 52.9% [50.2%] (46.8%) {50.4%} [47.9%] (47%)
• Jack Conway (D) 36.7% [38.2%] (35.8%) {35.3%} [29.5%] (33%)
• Undecided 8.7% [10.8%] (16.0%) {14.2%} [22.1%] (19%)

Among Women

• Jack Conway (D) 41.1% [40.5%] (38.9%) {47.5%} [33.1%] (43%)
• Rand Paul (R) 40.8% [37.4%] (37.9%) {33.1%} [34.0%] (36%)
• Undecided 16.7% [21.8%] (22.6%) {18.3%} [31.5%] (19%)

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Jack Conway 46.7% [50.6%] (49.6%) {54.4%} [43.9%] (50%) / 41.3% [28.6%] (22.7%) {22.9%} [21.1%] (19%) {+5.4%}
• Rand Paul 48.0% [47.1%] (48.7%) {46.8%} [49.8%] (48%) / 43.4% [36.5%] (33.4%) {36.4%} [25.7%] (33%) {+4.6%}

What is your opinion of the job President Obama is doing?

• Strongly approve 15.6% [13.6%] (15.8%) {13.3%}
• Somewhat approve 24.2% [23.8%] (26.9%) {26.9%}
• Somewhat disapprove 14.4% [18.8%] (15.9%) {18.4%}
• Strongly disapprove 43.8% [41.4%] (38.3%) {39.2%}

Which party would you rather see in control of Congress after the November election, the Democrats or the Republicans?

• Republicans 48.9% [47.0%] (45.4%) {47.7%}
• Democrats 36.8% [37.4%] (36.5%) {36.0%}

Survey of 800 likely voters was conducted October 25-27, 2010.  The margin of error is +/- 3.5 percentage points.  Party registration breakdown: 54.0% [53.9%] (54.0%) {54.2%} [54.2%] (54%) Democrat; 37.9% [38.1%] (37.8%) {37.5%} [37.6%] (38%) Republican; 8.0% [7.9%] (8.0%) {8.2%} [8.1%] (8%) Independent.  Party ID breakdown: 49.8% [46.8%] Republican; 38.5% [42.8%] Democrat.  Political ideology: 50.2% [47.7%] (47.2%) {53.5%} [53.5%] (50%) Conservative; 25.4% [30.5%] (25.6%) {24.2%} [23.3%] (25%) Moderate; 20.1% [18.1%] (23.0%) {19.7%} [19.9%] (20%) Liberal.  Results from the poll conducted October 4-6, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 30 - September 1, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted August 16-18, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 2-4, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 19-21, 2010 are in parentheses.  Click here to view crosstabs.

Poll Watch: Braun Research/cn|2 Kentucky Senatorial Survey

Braun Research/cn|2 Kentucky Senatorial Survey

• Rand Paul (R) 43.4% (42.1%) {41.2%} [40.6%] (41%)
• Jack Conway (D) 39.5% (37.4%) {41.7%} [31.4%] (38%)
• Undecided 16.6% (19.5%) {16.4%} [27.0%] (19%)

Among Men

• Rand Paul (R) 50.2% (46.8%) {50.4%} [47.9%] (47%)
• Jack Conway (D) 38.2% (35.8%) {35.3%} [29.5%] (33%)
• Undecided 10.8% (16.0%) {14.2%} [22.1%] (19%)

Among Women

• Jack Conway (D) 40.5% (38.9%) {47.5%} [33.1%] (43%)
• Rand Paul (R) 37.4% (37.9%) {33.1%} [34.0%] (36%)
• Undecided 21.8% (22.6%) {18.3%} [31.5%] (19%)

First Congressional District: 15.3% (15.6%) {15.4%} [15.4%]

• Rand Paul (R) 41.0% (45.8%) {46.5%} [34.8%]
• Jack Conway (D) 36.4% (31.9%) {35.1%} [31.2%]
• Undecided 22.1% (21.7%) {17.0%} [32.2%]

Second Congressional District: 16.8% (17.1%) {17.1%} [17.1%]

• Rand Paul (R) 46.6% (44.6%) {47.7%} [51.1%]
• Jack Conway (D) 37.7% (40.0%) {38.4%} [25.5%]
• Undecided 15.3% (14.0%) {13.9%} [23.3%]

Third Congressional District: 18.4% (18.5%) {18.4%} [18.3%]

• Jack Conway (D) 54.8% (45.1%) {52.8%} [43.2%]
• Rand Paul (R) 33.1% (40.3%) {34.6%} [36.8%]
• Undecided 10.5% (12.7%) {12.2%} [19.1%]

Fourth Congressional District: 15.9% (15.5%) {15.2%} [15.3%]

• Rand Paul (R) 53.3% (48.0%) {43.4%} [43.1%]
• Jack Conway (D) 25.3% (27.3%) {35.0%} [29.0%]
• Undecided 21.4% (24.1%)  {21.6%} [26.6%]

Fifth Congressional District: 16.1% (16.1%) {16.1%} [15.9%]

• Jack Conway (D) 43.7% (44.0%) {38.3%} [23.9%]
• Rand Paul (R) 38.3% (29.8%) {41.6%} [38.0%]
• Undecided 17.6% (25.0%) [37.6%]

Sixth Congressional District: 17.6% (17.4%) {17.9%} [17.8%]

• Rand Paul (R) 49.0% (44.2%) {35.0%} [39.4%]
• Jack Conway (D) 36.6% (34.7%) {48.1%} [33.7%]
• Undecided 14.4% (21.1%) {16.8%} [25.2%]

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Jack Conway 50.6% (49.6%) {54.4%} [43.9%] (50%) / 28.6% (22.7%) {22.9%} [21.1%] (19%) {+22.0%}
• Rand Paul 47.1% (48.7%) {46.8%} [49.8%] (48%) / 36.5% (33.4%) {36.4%} [25.7%] (33%) {+10.6%}

What is your opinion of the job President Obama is doing?

• Strongly approve 13.6% (15.8%) {13.3%}
• Somewhat approve 23.8% (26.9%) {26.9%}
• Somewhat disapprove 18.8% (15.9%) {18.4%}
• Strongly disapprove 41.4% (38.3%) {39.2%}

Which party would you rather see in control of Congress after the November election, the Democrats or the Republicans?

• Republicans 47.0% (45.4%) {47.7%}
• Democrats 37.4% (36.5%) {36.0%}

Survey of 826 likely voters was conducted October 4-6, 2010.  The margin of error is +/- 3.46 percentage points.  Party registration breakdown: 53.9% (54.0%) {54.2%} [54.2%] (54%) Democrat; 38.1% (37.8%) {37.5%} [37.6%] (38%) Republican; 7.9% (8.0%) {8.2%} [8.1%] (8%) Independent.  Party ID breakdown: 46.8% Republican; 42.8% Democrat.  Political ideology: 47.7% (47.2%) {53.5%} [53.5%] (50%) Conservative; 30.5% (25.6%) {24.2%} [23.3%] (25%) Moderate; 18.1% (23.0%) {19.7%} [19.9%] (20%) Liberal.  Results from the poll conducted August 30 - September 1, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted August 16-18, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 2-4, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 19-21, 2010 are in parentheses.