Poll Watch: PPP (D) Kentucky Senatorial Survey

PPP (D) Kentucky Senatorial Survey

• Rand Paul (R) 55% [53%] (49%) {43%} [41%] (42%)
• Jack Conway (D) 40% [40%] (42%) {43%} [40%] (36%)

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Rand Paul 48% [49%] (45%) {34%} [28%] (26%) / 43% [43%] (40%) {42%} [35%] (23%) {+5%}
• Jack Conway 34% [39%] (36%) {31%} [20%] (19%) / 52% [52%] (36%) {29%} [22%] (18%) {-18%}

Do you approve or disapprove of President Barack Obama’s job performance?

• Approve 31% [34%] (37%) {37%} [37%] (35%)
• Disapprove 62% [61%] (60%) {58%} [59%] (59%)

Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Steve Beshear's job performance?

• Approve 48% [43%] (43%)
• Disapprove 34% [39%] (37%)

Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Mitch McConnell's job performance?

• Approve 42% [41%] (41%)
• Disapprove 44% [47%] (50%)

Among Republicans

• Approve 68% [65%] (64%)
• Disapprove 20% [25%] (25%)

Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Jim Bunning's job performance?

• Approve 32% [33%] (31%)
• Disapprove 45% [45%] (48%)

Among Republicans

• Approve 47% [45%] (43%)
• Disapprove 29% [30%] (33%)

Survey of 1,021 likely voters was conducted October 28-30, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 3.1 percentage points. Party ID breakdown: 53% [50%] (49%) {52%} [50%] (52%) Democrat; 37% [40%] (39%) {37%} [40%] (38%) Republican; 10% [10%] (12%) {11%} [10%] (11%) Independent. Political ideology: 44% [44%] (47%) {47%} [49%] (45%) Conservative; 42% [41%] (38%) {41%} [38%] (43%) Moderate; 14% [15%] (15%) {12%} [13%] (13%) Liberal.   Results from the poll conducted October 21-24, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 11-12, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted June 28-30, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 1-2, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 18-21, 2009 are in parentheses.

Kentucky Democratic Party Ad: "The Rand Paul STOMP"

Poll Watch: Braun Research/cn|2 Kentucky Senatorial Survey

Braun Research/cn|2 Kentucky Senatorial Survey

• Rand Paul (R) 46.5% [43.4%] (42.1%) {41.2%} [40.6%] (41%)
• Jack Conway (D) 39.0% [39.5%] (37.4%) {41.7%} [31.4%] (38%)
• Undecided 12.9% [16.6%] (19.5%) {16.4%} [27.0%] (19%)

Among Men

• Rand Paul (R) 52.9% [50.2%] (46.8%) {50.4%} [47.9%] (47%)
• Jack Conway (D) 36.7% [38.2%] (35.8%) {35.3%} [29.5%] (33%)
• Undecided 8.7% [10.8%] (16.0%) {14.2%} [22.1%] (19%)

Among Women

• Jack Conway (D) 41.1% [40.5%] (38.9%) {47.5%} [33.1%] (43%)
• Rand Paul (R) 40.8% [37.4%] (37.9%) {33.1%} [34.0%] (36%)
• Undecided 16.7% [21.8%] (22.6%) {18.3%} [31.5%] (19%)

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Jack Conway 46.7% [50.6%] (49.6%) {54.4%} [43.9%] (50%) / 41.3% [28.6%] (22.7%) {22.9%} [21.1%] (19%) {+5.4%}
• Rand Paul 48.0% [47.1%] (48.7%) {46.8%} [49.8%] (48%) / 43.4% [36.5%] (33.4%) {36.4%} [25.7%] (33%) {+4.6%}

What is your opinion of the job President Obama is doing?

• Strongly approve 15.6% [13.6%] (15.8%) {13.3%}
• Somewhat approve 24.2% [23.8%] (26.9%) {26.9%}
• Somewhat disapprove 14.4% [18.8%] (15.9%) {18.4%}
• Strongly disapprove 43.8% [41.4%] (38.3%) {39.2%}

Which party would you rather see in control of Congress after the November election, the Democrats or the Republicans?

• Republicans 48.9% [47.0%] (45.4%) {47.7%}
• Democrats 36.8% [37.4%] (36.5%) {36.0%}

Survey of 800 likely voters was conducted October 25-27, 2010.  The margin of error is +/- 3.5 percentage points.  Party registration breakdown: 54.0% [53.9%] (54.0%) {54.2%} [54.2%] (54%) Democrat; 37.9% [38.1%] (37.8%) {37.5%} [37.6%] (38%) Republican; 8.0% [7.9%] (8.0%) {8.2%} [8.1%] (8%) Independent.  Party ID breakdown: 49.8% [46.8%] Republican; 38.5% [42.8%] Democrat.  Political ideology: 50.2% [47.7%] (47.2%) {53.5%} [53.5%] (50%) Conservative; 25.4% [30.5%] (25.6%) {24.2%} [23.3%] (25%) Moderate; 20.1% [18.1%] (23.0%) {19.7%} [19.9%] (20%) Liberal.  Results from the poll conducted October 4-6, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 30 - September 1, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted August 16-18, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 2-4, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 19-21, 2010 are in parentheses.  Click here to view crosstabs.

Poll Watch: Rasmussen Kentucky Senatorial Survey

Rasmussen Kentucky Senatorial Survey

• Rand Paul (R) 53% [47%] (49%) {51%} [49%] (49%) {49%} [49%] (59%) {47%} [50%] (49%) {47%} [46%] (38%)
• Jack Conway (D) 41% [42%] (38%) {38%} [40%] (41%) {42%} [41%] (34%) {38%} [36%] (34%) {39%} [38%] (42%)

Among Voters Certain of Their Vote

• Rand Paul (R) 58%
• Jack Conway (D) 42%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Rand Paul 56% [51%] (56%) {56%} [58%] (57%) {55%} [57%] (69%) {56%} [53%] (57%) {54%} [57%] (51%) / 42% [45%] (39%) {39%} [36%] (35%) {38%} [38%] (28%) {31%} [33%] (26%) {26%} [25%] (23%) {+6%}
• Jack Conway 38% [50%] (46%) {45%} [47%] (49%) {51%} [47%] (44%) [47%} [44%] (40%) {47%} [46%] (49%) / 58% [48%] (45%) {48%} [43%] (40%) {35%} [43%] (45%) {36%} [39%] (33%) {32%} [36%] (27%) {-20%}

How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President?

• Strongly approve 25% [25%] (24%) {22%} [20%] (25%) {24%} [21%] (21%) {28%} [24%] (20%) {28%} [22%] (29%)
• Somewhat approve 10% [14%] (16%) {14%} [16%] (17%) {17%} [16%] (15%) {13%} [14%] (17%) {14%} [19%] (18%)
• Somewhat disapprove 10% [9%] (7%) {11%} [10%] (10%) {12%} [12%] (12%) {11%} [9%] (10%) {11%} [13%] (12%)
• Strongly disapprove 55% [51%] (53%) {53%} [53%] (48%) {46%} [51%] (51%) {48%} [53%] (49%) {46%} [46%] (41%)

Survey of 750 likely voters was conducted October 27, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points.  Party ID breakdown: 47% [48%] (46%) Democrat; 40% [39%] (38%) Republican; 13% [13%] (16%) Independent/Other.  Results from the poll conducted October 18, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 29, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted September 7, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 17, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 20, 2010 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted June 28, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted June 1, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 19, 2010 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted April 28, 2010 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted March 31, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 2, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted February 2, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 6, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 30, 2009 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: SurveyUSA Kentucky Senatorial Survey

SurveyUSA Kentucky Senatorial Survey

• Rand Paul (R) 52% (49%) {55%} [51%] (51%)
• Jack Conway (D) 43% (47%) {40%} [43%] (45%)
• Undecided 4% (4%) {5%} [5%] (4%)

Among Men

• Rand Paul (R) 59% (59%) {65%} [57%] (54%)
• Jack Conway (D) 39% (38%) {31%} [38%] (44%)
• Undecided 3% (2%) {4%} [5%] (2%)

Among Women

• Jack Conway (D) 48% (55%) {48%} [49%] (46%)
• Rand Paul (R) 46% (39%) {45%} [46%] (48%)
• Undecided 6% (6%) {7%} [5%] (6%)

Among Democrats

• Jack Conway (D) 66% (72%) {64%} [69%] (68%)
• Rand Paul (R) 30% (25%) {32%} [25%] (29%)
• Undecided 4% (4%) {5%} [5%] (3%)

Among Republicans

• Rand Paul (R) 81% (83%) {82%} [85%] (82%)
• Jack Conway (D) 14% (12%) {13%} [11%] (16%)
• Undecided 5% (5%) {4%} [3%] (3%)

Among Independents

• Jack Conway (D) 51% (45%) {34%} [36%] (34%)
• Rand Paul (R) 45% (50%) {56%} [54%] (47%)
• Undecided (5%) {10%} [10%] (19%)

Among Conservatives

• Rand Paul (R) 82% (82%) {80%} [81%] (76%)
• Jack Conway (D) 14% (15%) {16%} [15%] (21%)
• Undecided 4% (3%) {4%} [4%] (3%)

Among Moderates

• Jack Conway (D) 65% (64%) {58%} [63%] (57%)
• Rand Paul (R) 32% (31%) {38%} [32%] (39%)
• Undecided 3% (6%) {4%} [5%] (4%)

Among Liberals

• Jack Conway (D) 75% (87%) {77%} [78%] (75%)
• Rand Paul (R) 18% (12%) {20%} [15%] (21%)
• Undecided 6% (1%) {2%} [6%] (4%)

Survey of 637 likely voters was conducted October 24-27, 2010.  The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points.  Party ID breakdown: 50% (51%) {47%} [50%] (54%) Democrat; 41% (36%) {42%} [37%] (40%) Republican; 9% (12%) {10%} [12%] (5%) Independent.  Political ideology: 44% (44%) {46%} [44%] (38%) Conservative; 38% (36%) {36%} [35%] (44%) Moderate; 13% (17%) {12%} [14%] (13%) Liberal.  Results from the poll conducted September 21-23, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted August 30 - September 1, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 27-29, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 25-27, 2010 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: CNN/Time/Opinion Research Kentucky Senatorial Survey

CNN/Time/Opinion Research Kentucky Senatorial Survey

• Rand Paul (R) 50%
• Jack Conway (D) 43%

Among Men

• Rand Paul (R) 56%
• Jack Conway (D) 40%

Among Women

• Jack Conway (D) 47%
• Rand Paul (R) 43%

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president?

• Approve 36%
• Disapprove 59%

Survey of 785 likely voters was conducted October 20-26, 2010.  The margin of error is +/- 3.5 percentage points.

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Kentucky Senatorial Survey

PPP (D) Kentucky Senatorial Survey

• Rand Paul (R) 53% (49%) {43%} [41%] (42%)
• Jack Conway (D) 40% (42%) {43%} [40%] (36%)

Already Voted (10%)

• Jack Conway (D) 50%
• Rand Paul (R) 41%

Did Not Vote Yet (90%)

• Rand Paul (R) 54%
• Jack Conway (D) 39%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Rand Paul 49% (45%) {34%} [28%] (26%) / 43% (40%) {42%} [35%] (23%) {+6%}
• Jack Conway 39% (36%) {31%} [20%] (19%) / 52% (36%) {29%} [22%] (18%) {-13%}

Do you approve or disapprove of President Barack Obama’s job performance?

• Approve 34% (37%) {37%} [37%] (35%)
• Disapprove 61% (60%) {58%} [59%] (59%)

Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Steve Beshear's job performance?

• Approve 43% (43%)
• Disapprove 39% (37%)

Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Mitch McConnell's job performance?

• Approve 41% (41%)
• Disapprove 47% (50%)

Among Republicans

• Approve 65% (64%)
• Disapprove 25% (25%)

Would you like to see Mitch McConnell continue in his role as Republican leader in the next Congress?

• Yes 45% (42%)
• No 47% (48%)

Among Republicans

• Yes 71% (67%)
• No 22% (20%)

Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Jim Bunning's job performance?

• Approve 33% (31%)
• Disapprove 45% (48%)

Among Republicans

• Approve 45% (43%)
• Disapprove 30% (33%)

Survey of 900 likely voters was conducted October 21-24, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 3.3 percentage points. Party ID breakdown: 50% (49%) {52%} [50%] (52%) Democrat; 40% (39%) {37%} [40%] (38%) Republican; 10% (12%) {11%} [10%] (11%) Independent. Political ideology: 44% (47%) {47%} [49%] (45%) Conservative; 41% (38%) {41%} [38%] (43%) Moderate; 15% (15%) {12%} [13%] (13%) Liberal.   Results from the poll conducted September 11-12, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted June 28-30, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 1-2, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 18-21, 2009 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Pulse/Rasmussen/Fox News Kentucky Senatorial Survey

Pulse/Rasmussen/Fox News Kentucky Senatorial Survey

• Rand Paul (R) 50%
• Jack Conway (D) 43%
• Other 2%
• Not sure 5%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Rand Paul 48% / 41% {+7%}
• Jack Conway 38% / 51% {-13%}

Regardless of how you might vote, does Jack Conway share your values?

• Yes 30%
• No 49%

Regardless of how you might vote, does Rand Paul share your values?

• Yes 43%
• No 39%

Regardless of how you plan to vote, are you concerned Rand Paul is too extreme?

• Yes 42%
• No 44%

Regardless of how you plan to vote, does Jack Conway agree with Barack Obama on issues too often, not often enough or about the right amount?

• Too often 53%
• Not often enough 12%
• About the right amount 26%

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as president?

• Approve 35%
• Disapprove 60%

Survey of 1,000 likely voters was conducted October 23, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points.

Poll Watch: Lexington Herald-Leader/Mason-Dixon Kentucky Senatorial Survey

Lexington Herald-Leader/Mason-Dixon Kentucky Senatorial Survey

• Rand Paul (R) 48%
• Jack Conway (D) 43%
• Undecided 9%

Among Men

• Rand Paul (R) 55%
• Jack Conway (D) 39%
• Undecided 6%

Among Women

• Jack Conway (D) 46%
• Rand Paul (R) 41%
• Undecided 13%

Among Democrats

• Jack Conway (D) 65%
• Rand Paul (R) 24%
• Undecided 11%

Among Republicans

• Rand Paul (R) 81%
• Jack Conway (D) 13%
• Undecided 6%

Among Independents

• Rand Paul (R) 48%
• Jack Conway (D) 40%
• Undecided 12%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Mitch McConnell 40% / 33% {+7%}
• Rand Paul 42% / 37% {+5%}
• Jack Conway 31% / 35% {-4%}

Survey of 625 likely voters was conducted October 18-19, 2010.  The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points.  Party registration breakdown: 54% Democrat; 39% Republican; 7% Independent.  Click here to view full results and crosstabs.

Poll Watch: Rasmussen Kentucky Senatorial Survey

Rasmussen Kentucky Senatorial Survey

• Rand Paul (R) 47% (49%) {51%} [49%] (49%) {49%} [49%] (59%) {47%} [50%] (49%) {47%} [46%] (38%)
• Jack Conway (D) 42% (38%) {38%} [40%] (41%) {42%} [41%] (34%) {38%} [36%] (34%) {39%} [38%] (42%)

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Rand Paul 51% (56%) {56%} [58%] (57%) {55%} [57%] (69%) {56%} [53%] (57%) {54%} [57%] (51%) / 45% (39%) {39%} [36%] (35%) {38%} [38%] (28%) {31%} [33%] (26%) {26%} [25%] (23%) {+6%}
• Jack Conway 50% (46%) {45%} [47%] (49%) {51%} [47%] (44%) [47%} [44%] (40%) {47%} [46%] (49%) / 48% (45%) {48%} [43%] (40%) {35%} [43%] (45%) {36%} [39%] (33%) {32%} [36%] (27%) {+2%}

Would it be more accurate to describe Rand Paul’s views as mainstream or extreme?

• Mainstream 39% [47%]
• Extreme 44% [34%]

Would it be more accurate to describe Jack Conway’s views as mainstream or extreme?

• Mainstream 46% [43%]
• Extreme 40% [33%]

How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President?

• Strongly approve 25% (24%) {22%} [20%] (25%) {24%} [21%] (21%) {28%} [24%] (20%) {28%} [22%] (29%)
• Somewhat approve 14% (16%) {14%} [16%] (17%) {17%} [16%] (15%) {13%} [14%] (17%) {14%} [19%] (18%)
• Somewhat disapprove 9% (7%) {11%} [10%] (10%) {12%} [12%] (12%) {11%} [9%] (10%) {11%} [13%] (12%)
• Strongly disapprove 51% (53%) {53%} [53%] (48%) {46%} [51%] (51%) {48%} [53%] (49%) {46%} [46%] (41%)

Survey of 500 likely voters was conducted October 18, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points.  Party ID breakdown: 48% (46%) Democrat; 39% (38%) Republican; 13% (16%) Independent/Other.  Results from the poll conducted September 29, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted September 7, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 17, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 20, 2010 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted June 28, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted June 1, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 19, 2010 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted April 28, 2010 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted March 31, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 2, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted February 2, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 6, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 30, 2009 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:

While 78% of Republicans support Paul, just 69% of Democrats support their party's candidate. Paul holds an 17-point lead over Conway among voters not affiliated with either major political party.

Jack Conway for Senate Ad: "Why?"

Rand Paul: Abolish Dept. of Education to Stop Kentucky Kids from Learning About Families with 'Two Mommies'

Poll Watch: Braun Research/cn|2 Kentucky Senatorial Survey

Braun Research/cn|2 Kentucky Senatorial Survey

• Rand Paul (R) 43.4% (42.1%) {41.2%} [40.6%] (41%)
• Jack Conway (D) 39.5% (37.4%) {41.7%} [31.4%] (38%)
• Undecided 16.6% (19.5%) {16.4%} [27.0%] (19%)

Among Men

• Rand Paul (R) 50.2% (46.8%) {50.4%} [47.9%] (47%)
• Jack Conway (D) 38.2% (35.8%) {35.3%} [29.5%] (33%)
• Undecided 10.8% (16.0%) {14.2%} [22.1%] (19%)

Among Women

• Jack Conway (D) 40.5% (38.9%) {47.5%} [33.1%] (43%)
• Rand Paul (R) 37.4% (37.9%) {33.1%} [34.0%] (36%)
• Undecided 21.8% (22.6%) {18.3%} [31.5%] (19%)

First Congressional District: 15.3% (15.6%) {15.4%} [15.4%]

• Rand Paul (R) 41.0% (45.8%) {46.5%} [34.8%]
• Jack Conway (D) 36.4% (31.9%) {35.1%} [31.2%]
• Undecided 22.1% (21.7%) {17.0%} [32.2%]

Second Congressional District: 16.8% (17.1%) {17.1%} [17.1%]

• Rand Paul (R) 46.6% (44.6%) {47.7%} [51.1%]
• Jack Conway (D) 37.7% (40.0%) {38.4%} [25.5%]
• Undecided 15.3% (14.0%) {13.9%} [23.3%]

Third Congressional District: 18.4% (18.5%) {18.4%} [18.3%]

• Jack Conway (D) 54.8% (45.1%) {52.8%} [43.2%]
• Rand Paul (R) 33.1% (40.3%) {34.6%} [36.8%]
• Undecided 10.5% (12.7%) {12.2%} [19.1%]

Fourth Congressional District: 15.9% (15.5%) {15.2%} [15.3%]

• Rand Paul (R) 53.3% (48.0%) {43.4%} [43.1%]
• Jack Conway (D) 25.3% (27.3%) {35.0%} [29.0%]
• Undecided 21.4% (24.1%)  {21.6%} [26.6%]

Fifth Congressional District: 16.1% (16.1%) {16.1%} [15.9%]

• Jack Conway (D) 43.7% (44.0%) {38.3%} [23.9%]
• Rand Paul (R) 38.3% (29.8%) {41.6%} [38.0%]
• Undecided 17.6% (25.0%) [37.6%]

Sixth Congressional District: 17.6% (17.4%) {17.9%} [17.8%]

• Rand Paul (R) 49.0% (44.2%) {35.0%} [39.4%]
• Jack Conway (D) 36.6% (34.7%) {48.1%} [33.7%]
• Undecided 14.4% (21.1%) {16.8%} [25.2%]

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Jack Conway 50.6% (49.6%) {54.4%} [43.9%] (50%) / 28.6% (22.7%) {22.9%} [21.1%] (19%) {+22.0%}
• Rand Paul 47.1% (48.7%) {46.8%} [49.8%] (48%) / 36.5% (33.4%) {36.4%} [25.7%] (33%) {+10.6%}

What is your opinion of the job President Obama is doing?

• Strongly approve 13.6% (15.8%) {13.3%}
• Somewhat approve 23.8% (26.9%) {26.9%}
• Somewhat disapprove 18.8% (15.9%) {18.4%}
• Strongly disapprove 41.4% (38.3%) {39.2%}

Which party would you rather see in control of Congress after the November election, the Democrats or the Republicans?

• Republicans 47.0% (45.4%) {47.7%}
• Democrats 37.4% (36.5%) {36.0%}

Survey of 826 likely voters was conducted October 4-6, 2010.  The margin of error is +/- 3.46 percentage points.  Party registration breakdown: 53.9% (54.0%) {54.2%} [54.2%] (54%) Democrat; 38.1% (37.8%) {37.5%} [37.6%] (38%) Republican; 7.9% (8.0%) {8.2%} [8.1%] (8%) Independent.  Party ID breakdown: 46.8% Republican; 42.8% Democrat.  Political ideology: 47.7% (47.2%) {53.5%} [53.5%] (50%) Conservative; 30.5% (25.6%) {24.2%} [23.3%] (25%) Moderate; 18.1% (23.0%) {19.7%} [19.9%] (20%) Liberal.  Results from the poll conducted August 30 - September 1, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted August 16-18, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 2-4, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 19-21, 2010 are in parentheses.

Jack Conway for Senate Ad: "He Doesn't Know Us"

Jack Conway for Senate Ad: "Rand Paul Wants A $2000 Deductible For Medicare"

Kentucky Senatorial Debate: Jack Conway vs. Rand Paul

Part 1


Part 2

Poll Watch: Rasmussen Kentucky Senatorial Survey

Rasmussen Kentucky Senatorial Survey

• Rand Paul (R) 49% {51%} [49%] (49%) {49%} [49%] (59%) {47%} [50%] (49%) {47%} [46%] (38%)
• Jack Conway (D) 38% {38%} [40%] (41%) {42%} [41%] (34%) {38%} [36%] (34%) {39%} [38%] (42%)

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Rand Paul 56% {56%} [58%] (57%) {55%} [57%] (69%) {56%} [53%] (57%) {54%} [57%] (51%) / 39% {39%} [36%] (35%) {38%} [38%] (28%) {31%} [33%] (26%) {26%} [25%] (23%) {+17%}
• Jack Conway 46% {45%} [47%] (49%) {51%} [47%] (44%) [47%} [44%] (40%) {47%} [46%] (49%) / 45% {48%} [43%] (40%) {35%} [43%] (45%) {36%} [39%] (33%) {32%} [36%] (27%) {+1%}

How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President?

• Strongly approve 24% {22%} [20%] (25%) {24%} [21%] (21%) {28%} [24%] (20%) {28%} [22%] (29%)
• Somewhat approve 16% {14%} [16%] (17%) {17%} [16%] (15%) {13%} [14%] (17%) {14%} [19%] (18%)
• Somewhat disapprove 7% {11%} [10%] (10%) {12%} [12%] (12%) {11%} [9%] (10%) {11%} [13%] (12%)
• Strongly disapprove 53% {53%} [53%] (48%) {46%} [51%] (51%) {48%} [53%] (49%) {46%} [46%] (41%)

Survey of 500 likely voters was conducted September 29, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points.  Party ID breakdown: 46% Democrat; 38% Republican; 16% Independent/Other.  Results from the poll conducted September 7, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 17, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 20, 2010 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted June 28, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted June 1, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 19, 2010 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted April 28, 2010 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted March 31, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 2, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted February 2, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 6, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 30, 2009 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:

While 82% of Republicans support Paul, just 67% of Democrats support their party's candidate. Paul holds an 18-point lead over Conway among voters not affiliated with either major political party.

Jack Conway for Senate TV Ad: "Rand's $2,000 Medicare Deductible"

Poll Watch: SurveyUSA Kentucky Senatorial Survey

SurveyUSA Kentucky Senatorial Survey

• Rand Paul (R) 49% {55%} [51%] (51%)
• Jack Conway (D) 47% {40%} [43%] (45%)
• Undecided 4% {5%} [5%] (4%)

Among Men

• Rand Paul (R) 59% {65%} [57%] (54%)
• Jack Conway (D) 38% {31%} [38%] (44%)
• Undecided 2% {4%} [5%] (2%)

Among Women

• Jack Conway (D) 55% {48%} [49%] (46%)
• Rand Paul (R) 39% {45%} [46%] (48%)
• Undecided 6% {7%} [5%] (6%)

Among Democrats

• Jack Conway (D) 72% {64%} [69%] (68%)
• Rand Paul (R) 25% {32%} [25%] (29%)
• Undecided 4% {5%} [5%] (3%)

Among Republicans

• Rand Paul (R) 83% {82%} [85%] (82%)
• Jack Conway (D) 12% {13%} [11%] (16%)
• Undecided 5% {4%} [3%] (3%)

Among Independents

• Rand Paul (R) 50% {56%} [54%] (47%)
• Jack Conway (D) 45% {34%} [36%] (34%)
• Undecided 5% {10%} [10%] (19%)

Among Conservatives

• Rand Paul (R) 82% {80%} [81%] (76%)
• Jack Conway (D) 15% {16%} [15%] (21%)
• Undecided 3% {4%} [4%] (3%)

Among Moderates

• Jack Conway (D) 64% {58%} [63%] (57%)
• Rand Paul (R) 31% {38%} [32%] (39%)
• Undecided 6% {4%} [5%] (4%)

Among Liberals

• Jack Conway (D) 87% {77%} [78%] (75%)
• Rand Paul (R) 12% {20%} [15%] (21%)
• Undecided 1% {2%} [6%] (4%)

Income $50K+

• Rand Paul (R) 51% {55%} [58%] (58%)
• Jack Conway (D) 46% {41%} [37%] (39%)
• Undecided 3% {4%} [5%] (3%)

North Central Kentucky

• Jack Conway (D) 49% {36%} [41%] (41%)
• Rand Paul (R) 49% {58%} [54%] (53%)
• Undecided 2% {6%} [5%] (5%)

Louisville Area

• Jack Conway (D) 49% {44%} [45%] (49%)
• Rand Paul (R) 47% {52%} [50%] (48%)
• Undecided 3% {3%} [5%] (2%)

Western Kentucky

• Rand Paul (R) 48% {57%} [51%] (58%)
• Jack Conway (D) 45% {39%} [43%] (37%)
• Undecided 7% {4%} [6%] (5%)

Eastern Kentucky

• Rand Paul (R) 53% {51%} [47%] (42%)
• Jack Conway (D) 40% {39%} [48%] (56%)
• Undecided 8% {10%} [4%] (2%)

Survey of 611 likely voters was conducted September 21-23, 2010.  The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points.  Party ID breakdown: 51% {47%} [50%] (54%) Democrat; 36% {42%} [37%] (40%) Republican; 12% {10%} [12%] (5%) Independent.  Political ideology: 44% {46%} [44%] (38%) Conservative; 36% {36%} [35%] (44%) Moderate; 17% {12%} [14%] (13%) Liberal.  Abortion: Pro-Life 59% {54%} [62%] (57%); Pro-Choice 38% {42%} [35%] (40%).  Age breakdown: 18-34: 13% {14%} [17%]; 35-49: 32% {29%} [31%]; 50-64: 31% {32%} [32%]; 65+: 23% {24%} [21%].  Region: 35% North Central Kentucky; 25% Louisville area; 24% Western Kentucky; 16% Eastern Kentucky.  Results from the poll conducted August 30 - September 1, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 27-29, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 25-27, 2010 are in parentheses.

Rand Paul Repugnantly Resorts to Godwin's Law

It will be a most unfortunate indictment on the intelligence of Kentuckians if they elect this member of the lunatic fringe into office.

Jason Zengerle reports in the October edition of GQ:

Just fifteen minutes earlier the candidate whom Paul came out to support was likening the current Speaker of the House to a former Soviet dictator, so I ask if he thinks that's what the press might be referring to when they say the Tea Party is extreme. He leans forward and smiles. "Well, I think whether or not your analogies are over the top, whether you might extend an analogy farther than others might, is not something to be reviled. It's just an opinion, you know?"

He pauses for a moment, as if wondering whether he should say more, then gives in to the urge. "But I don't hear that and say, 'Oh, he's absolutely wrong.' I hear him and say that our country is slipping towards that, and there could be a time when we slip and lose a lot of our freedoms. I'll say things like that Ben Franklin statement: 'Those who give up their liberty for security will have neither.' I worry about a time when we would have chaos in our country and then a strong national leader would come along and say, 'Give me your liberty and I'll give you security.' Not that it's imminent or happening tomorrow or applies to any particular players on the stage, but there are historical examples."

Paul pauses again, although this time it's not out of any hesitation on his part; he's just making sure we're still with him. "In 1923, when they destroyed the currency, they elected Hitler. And so they elected somebody who vilified one group of people, but he promised them, 'I will give you security if you give me your liberty,' and they voted him in. And that's not to mean that anybody around is Hitler, but it's to mean that you don't want chaos in your country. And we could have chaos, not just because of the Democrats, but because the Democrats and the Republicans have all been spending us into oblivion. And having a massive debt runs the risk of chaos at some point. Not tomorrow, maybe not next week—I mean, I can't even predict the stock market six months from now. But I think that a country is in danger that spends beyond its means and lives beyond its means. And I don't ever say it started with President Obama. I think it started long ago."

It's an incredible performance, one that begins with a gentle distancing from a loony analogy before reframing the analogy to make it seem less loony, then introducing a new analogy that isn't just loony, it's repugnant, but that also, as the analogy gets fleshed out in greater detail, begins to reveal itself as conforming to a certain logic that might be worthy of debate—all before ending on a bipartisan, pox-on-both-their-houses note that makes it clear that no, he was not comparing Obama to Hitler.

Unlike some of the prominent Tea Party leaders he's routinely lumped in with, Paul is not an idiot. When I asked a friend of his to characterize Paul's conversations with Sarah Palin, who provided him with an early endorsement, the friend replied: "Brief." Paul doesn't avoid the press because, like Sharron Angle, he's afraid of revealing his ignorance; rather, he does so because he's afraid he'll be unable to resist the temptation to prove how smart he is.

"If you challenge him intellectually, he's incapable of letting it go," says one GOP consultant to whom the Paul campaign has reached out for advice. "I'm sure he's wonderful at dinner parties, but he can't be having a dinner party debate with Rachel Maddow on national television." In fact, it's easy to imagine that in Paul's heart of hearts, he'd much prefer being interviewed by a smart person who deeply disagrees with him, like Maddow, than a doofus with whom he's in superficial accord, like Sean Hannity.

And yet it's the Hannity watchers of the world who have transformed this awkward man—someone who has more affection for the dead poets he quotes in his speeches than for the audiences to which he gives them—into a populist hero. To their ears, Paul isn't articulating a dogmatic ideology that has traditionally held little appeal to most Americans because it privileges the free market above everything else; he's offering the only appropriate response to the tyrannical socialist agenda being perpetrated in Washington. He isn't making a tortured historical analogy about the dangers of centralized power; he's calling Obama Hitler. It's why, back during the primary, as Michael Clingaman put it, "people were ready to walk over glass to vote for Rand Paul." And it's why, come November, they'll be ready to do so again. When I ask David Adams, Paul's erstwhile campaign manager, about his old boss's many peculiarities, he replies: "He's a once-in-a-lifetime character. He's perfectly suited for this moment." The moment is strange enough that he's probably right.

The Hill reports the following response from Jack Conway's campaign:

"Rand Paul's shrill references to Hitler and conspiracies of a New World Order continue a disturbing pattern of being completely out of touch with Kentuckians, Conway spokesman John Collins said.