Poll Watch: SurveyUSA Kentucky Senatorial Survey

SurveyUSA Kentucky Senatorial Survey

• Rand Paul (R) 49% {55%} [51%] (51%)
• Jack Conway (D) 47% {40%} [43%] (45%)
• Undecided 4% {5%} [5%] (4%)

Among Men

• Rand Paul (R) 59% {65%} [57%] (54%)
• Jack Conway (D) 38% {31%} [38%] (44%)
• Undecided 2% {4%} [5%] (2%)

Among Women

• Jack Conway (D) 55% {48%} [49%] (46%)
• Rand Paul (R) 39% {45%} [46%] (48%)
• Undecided 6% {7%} [5%] (6%)

Among Democrats

• Jack Conway (D) 72% {64%} [69%] (68%)
• Rand Paul (R) 25% {32%} [25%] (29%)
• Undecided 4% {5%} [5%] (3%)

Among Republicans

• Rand Paul (R) 83% {82%} [85%] (82%)
• Jack Conway (D) 12% {13%} [11%] (16%)
• Undecided 5% {4%} [3%] (3%)

Among Independents

• Rand Paul (R) 50% {56%} [54%] (47%)
• Jack Conway (D) 45% {34%} [36%] (34%)
• Undecided 5% {10%} [10%] (19%)

Among Conservatives

• Rand Paul (R) 82% {80%} [81%] (76%)
• Jack Conway (D) 15% {16%} [15%] (21%)
• Undecided 3% {4%} [4%] (3%)

Among Moderates

• Jack Conway (D) 64% {58%} [63%] (57%)
• Rand Paul (R) 31% {38%} [32%] (39%)
• Undecided 6% {4%} [5%] (4%)

Among Liberals

• Jack Conway (D) 87% {77%} [78%] (75%)
• Rand Paul (R) 12% {20%} [15%] (21%)
• Undecided 1% {2%} [6%] (4%)

Income $50K+

• Rand Paul (R) 51% {55%} [58%] (58%)
• Jack Conway (D) 46% {41%} [37%] (39%)
• Undecided 3% {4%} [5%] (3%)

North Central Kentucky

• Jack Conway (D) 49% {36%} [41%] (41%)
• Rand Paul (R) 49% {58%} [54%] (53%)
• Undecided 2% {6%} [5%] (5%)

Louisville Area

• Jack Conway (D) 49% {44%} [45%] (49%)
• Rand Paul (R) 47% {52%} [50%] (48%)
• Undecided 3% {3%} [5%] (2%)

Western Kentucky

• Rand Paul (R) 48% {57%} [51%] (58%)
• Jack Conway (D) 45% {39%} [43%] (37%)
• Undecided 7% {4%} [6%] (5%)

Eastern Kentucky

• Rand Paul (R) 53% {51%} [47%] (42%)
• Jack Conway (D) 40% {39%} [48%] (56%)
• Undecided 8% {10%} [4%] (2%)

Survey of 611 likely voters was conducted September 21-23, 2010.  The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points.  Party ID breakdown: 51% {47%} [50%] (54%) Democrat; 36% {42%} [37%] (40%) Republican; 12% {10%} [12%] (5%) Independent.  Political ideology: 44% {46%} [44%] (38%) Conservative; 36% {36%} [35%] (44%) Moderate; 17% {12%} [14%] (13%) Liberal.  Abortion: Pro-Life 59% {54%} [62%] (57%); Pro-Choice 38% {42%} [35%] (40%).  Age breakdown: 18-34: 13% {14%} [17%]; 35-49: 32% {29%} [31%]; 50-64: 31% {32%} [32%]; 65+: 23% {24%} [21%].  Region: 35% North Central Kentucky; 25% Louisville area; 24% Western Kentucky; 16% Eastern Kentucky.  Results from the poll conducted August 30 - September 1, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 27-29, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 25-27, 2010 are in parentheses.