Poll Watch: Field Research California Senatorial Survey

Field Research California Senatorial Survey

• Barbara Boxer (D) 47% (47%) [45%] {50%} (49%)
• Carly Fiorina (R) 41% (44%) [44%] {35%} (35%)

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Barbara Boxer 45% (41%) [38%] {48%} / 48% (52%) [51%] {39%} {-3%}
• Carly Fiorina 34% (34%) [20%] {16%} / 38% (29%) [22%] {18%} {-4%}

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barbara Boxer is handling her job as U.S. Senator?

• Approve 43% (42%) {48%} (44%)
• Disapprove 47% (48%) {38%} (37%)

Survey of 599 likely voters was conducted September 14-21, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 4.1 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted June 22 – July 5, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted March 9-15, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 5-17, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 18 – October 5, 2009 are in parentheses.  Party registration breakdown: 44% Democrat; 35% Republican; 21% Non-partisans/others.

Inside the numbers:

Democrats favor Boxer 76% to 11%. Republicans pick Fiorina 79% to 10%. The 21% of likely voters who are non-partisan or are registered with a minor party divide Boxer 46% and Fiorina 40%.

Boxer is supported by a more than two to one margin among voters in the nine-county San Francisco Bay Area (67% to 28%). The incumbent also leads 47% to 38% in Los Angeles County and holds an eight-point advantage in areas of Northern California outside the Bay Area.

Fiorina has a big lead among likely voters in the Central Valley (55% to 31%) and has a slight lead among voters in Southern California outside of Los Angeles County (46% to 43%).

There are large differences in voter preference between voters intending to vote by mail and precinct voters. Fiorina has a one-point lead among mail ballot voters, but Boxer holds a thirteen point lead (50% to 37%) among voters intending to vote at their local precincts on Election Day.

There are relatively few differences in the voter preferences by gender and age in this race. There are some differences by race/ethnicity. Fiorina has a narrow two-point edge among white non-Hispanics. Boxer is preferred by double-digit margins among Latinos and other ethnic voting constituencies.

There are pronounced demographic differences in preferences by education. Voters who have no more than a high school education are backing Fiorina by eight points (46% to 38%). At the other end of the educational spectrum – voters who have completed post-graduate work – Boxer is preferred by a greater than two to one margin (62% to 28%).