Sunday, July 29, 2012

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Texas 2012 Republican Senatorial Runoff Survey

  • Ted Cruz 52% {49%} [34%]
  • David Dewhurst 42% {44%} [59%]
  • Not sure 6% {7%} [7%]
Among Men
  • Ted Cruz 54% {55%} [42%]
  • David Dewhurst 39% {38%} [54%]
  • Not sure 6% {8%} [4%]
Among Women
  • Ted Cruz 50% {44%} [26%]
  • David Dewhurst 44% {49%} [64%]
  • Not sure 6% {6%} [10%]
Very Conservative
  • Ted Cruz 63% {61%} [41%]
  • David Dewhurst 32% {34%} [52%]
  • Not sure 5% {5%} [7%]
Somewhat Conservative
  • David Dewhurst 47% {49%} [69%]
  • Ted Cruz 47% {45%} [28%]
  • Not sure 6% {6%} [3%]
Age 18-45
  • Ted Cruz 60% {46%} [34%]
  • David Dewhurst 33% {46%} [61%]
  • Not sure 6% {8%} [5%]
Age 46-65
  • Ted Cruz 59% {54%} [39%]
  • David Dewhurst 35% {40%} [55%]
  • Not sure 6% {6%} [6%]
Older Than 65
  • David Dewhurst 56% {47%} [63%]
  • Ted Cruz 39% {45%} [28%]
  • Not sure 5% {8%} [10%]
Already Voted (49%)
  • Ted Cruz 55%
  • David Dewhurst 40%
  • Not sure 4%
Will Definitely Vote (51%)
  • Ted Cruz 49%
  • David Dewhurst 44%
  • Not sure 7%
Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}
  • Ted Cruz 53% {56%} [38%] (31%) {15%} [8%] / 32% {25%} [32%] (17%) {14%} [14%] {+21%}
  • David Dewhurst 50% {52%} [61%] (47%) {41%} [42%] / 39% {33%} [25%] (22%) {19%} [16%] {+11%}
Do you consider yourself to be a member of the Tea Party?
  • Yes 33% {40%} [41%] (34%) {36%}
  • No 49% {50%} [45%] (48%) {53%}
Among Tea Party Members
  • Ted Cruz 75% {71%} [45%]
  • David Dewhurst 22% {26%} [52%]
  • Not sure 2% {3%} [3%]
Among Non-Tea Party Republicans
  • David Dewhurst 56% {57%} [67%]
  • Ted Cruz 39% {34%} [27%]
  • Not sure 6% {8%} [6%]
Are you an Evangelical Christian, or not?
  • Are an Evangelical 62% {65%} [61%]
  • Are not 38% {35%} [39%]
Among Evangelical Christians
  • Ted Cruz 54% {50%} [37%]
  • David Dewhurst 40% {42%} [57%]
  • Not sure 6% {8%} [6%]
Among Non-Evangelicals
  • Ted Cruz 50% {47%} [29%]
  • David Dewhurst 45% {47%} [63%]
  • Not sure 5% {6%} [8%]
Would you say you are very excited, somewhat excited, or not that excited about voting in the runoff election?
  • Very excited 50% {48%}
  • Somewhat excited 29% {30%}
  • Not that excited 21% {22%}
Very Excited
  • Ted Cruz 63% {59%}
  • David Dewhurst 33% {36%}
  • Not sure 4% {5%}
Somewhat Excited
  • Ted Cruz 49% {43%}
  • David Dewhurst 45% {51%}
  • Not sure 6% {6%}
Not That Excited
  • David Dewhurst 59% {50%}
  • Ted Cruz 31% {36%}
  • Not sure 10% {13%}
Are you more or less likely to vote for a candidate endorsed by Rick Perry, or does it not make a difference?
  • More likely 16%
  • Less likely 35%
  • Doesn't make a difference 50%
Are you more or less likely to vote for a candidate endorsed by Sarah Palin, or does it not make a difference?
  • More likely 31%
  • Less likely 24%
  • Doesn't make a difference 45%
Survey of 665 likely Republican runoff voters was conducted July 28-29, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 3.8 percentage points. Political ideology: 48% {52%} [55%] (47%) {41%} [38%] Very conservative; 25% {26%} [28%] (33%) {34%} [41%] Somewhat conservative; 10% {13%} [8%] (12%) {18%} [14%] Moderate; 4% {2%} [1%] (6%) {5%} [4%] Somewhat liberal; 3% {7%} [1%] (2%) {2%} [3%] Very liberal. Age: 18-45: 24% {18%} [22%]; 46 to 65: 40% {44%} [44%]; Older than 65: 36% {38%} [34%]. Results from the poll conducted July 10-11, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 22-23, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 19-22, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted January 12-15, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 15-18, 2011 are in square brackets.

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