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Poll Watch: PPP (D) NY-26 Special Election Survey

PPP (D) New York 26th Congressional District Special Election Survey

The candidates in the special election for Congress are Republican Jane Corwin, Tea Party candidate Jack Davis, Democrat Kathy Hochul, and Green Party candidate Ian Murphy. If the election was today, who would you vote for?

• Kathy Hochul (D) 42% (35%)
• Jane Corwin (R) 36% (31%)
• Jack Davis (TP) 13% (24%)
• Ian Murphy (G) 3% (2%)
• Undecided 5% (8%)

Among Republicans

• Jane Corwin (R) 61% (55%)
• Jack Davis (TP) 16% (24%)
• Kathy Hochul (D) 16% (10%)
• Ian Murphy (G) 3% (2%)
• Undecided 4% (9%)

Among Democrats

• Kathy Hochul (D) 74% (67%)
• Jane Corwin (R) 11% (7%)
• Jack Davis (TP) 8% (19%)
• Ian Murphy (G) 3% (2%)
• Undecided 4% (4%)

Among Independents

• Kathy Hochul (D) 36% (37%)
• Jane Corwin (R) 34% (20%)
• Jack Davis (TP) 17% (31%)
• Ian Murphy (G) 5% (3%)
• Undecided 9% (9%)

Among Tea Party Members

• Jane Corwin (R) 71% (47%)
• Jack Davis (TP) 16% (37%)
• Kathy Hochul (D) 6% (7%)
• Ian Murphy (G) 2% (3%)
• Undecided 6% (6%)

Among Men

• Jane Corwin (R) 39% (32%)
• Kathy Hochul (D) 39% (31%)
• Jack Davis (TP) 15% (27%)
• Ian Murphy (G) 3% (3%)
• Undecided 4% (7%)

Among Women

• Kathy Hochul (D) 44% (39%)
• Jane Corwin (R) 34% (30%)
• Jack Davis (TP) 12% (22%)
• Ian Murphy (G) 4% (1%)
• Undecided 6% (8%)

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Kathy Hochul 51% (46%) / 37% (40%) {+14%}
• Jane Corwin 34% (39%) / 52% (42%) {-18%}
• Ian Murphy 12% (10%) / 34% (35%) {-22%}
• Jack Davis 23% (43%) / 62% (43%) {-39%}

Do you approve or disapprove of President Barack Obama’s job performance?

• Approve 42% (40%)
• Disapprove 51% (53%)

Do you approve or disapprove of the job John Boehner is doing?

• Approve 28%
• Disapprove 45%

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Congressional Republicans are doing?

• Approve 26% (31%)
• Disapprove 59% (57%)

Do you think the Republicans are doing a better job than the Democrats did while in charge of the House of Representatives, a worse job, or is it about the same?

• A better job 34%
• A worse job 38%
• About the same 27%

Do you have more faith in Barack Obama or Congressional Republicans to lead the country in the right direction?

• Congressional Republicans 45%
• Barack Obama 44%

Would you like the new Congressman from our district to caucus with the Democrats or the Republicans in Congress?

• Republicans 41% (44%)
• Democrats 39% (37%)

Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Andrew Cuomo’s job performance?

• Approve 62% (69%)
• Disapprove 17% (16%)

Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Chuck Schumer’s job performance?

• Approve 54% (54%)
• Disapprove 34% (38%)

Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Kirsten Gillibrand’s job performance?

• Approve 43% (44%)
• Disapprove 35% (37%)

Do you consider yourself to be a member of the Tea Party?

• Yes 16% (19%)
• No 76% (71%)

Survey of 1,106 likely voters in New York's 26th Congressional District was conducted May 21-22, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 2.9 percentage points. Party ID breakdown: 39% (43%) Republican; 36% (32%) Democrat; 25% (25%) Independent/Other. Political ideology: 30% Moderate; 28% Somewhat conservative; 18% Very conservative; 17% Somewhat liberal; 7% Very liberal.  Results from the poll conducted May 5-8, 2011 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Siena College NY-26 Special Election Survey

Siena College New York 26th Congressional District Special Election Survey

• Kathy Hochul (D) 42%
• Jane Corwin (R) 38%
• Jack Davis (TP) 12%
• Ian Murphy (G) 1%
• Don't know 7%

Among Republicans

• Jane Corwin (R) 66%
• Jack Davis (TP) 13%
• Kathy Hochul (D) 12%
• Ian Murphy (G) 1%
• Don't know 8%

Among Democrats

• Kathy Hochul (D) 76%
• Jack Davis (TP) 10%
• Jane Corwin (R) 8%
• Ian Murphy (G) 2%
• Undecided 4%

Among Independents

• Kathy Hochul (D) 44%
• Jane Corwin (R) 36%
• Jack Davis (TP) 16%
• Ian Murphy (G) 1%
• Undecided 2%

Among Men

• Jane Corwin (R) 45%
• Kathy Hochul (D) 33%
• Jack Davis (TP) 14%
• Ian Murphy (G) 2%
• Don't know 6%

Among Women

• Kathy Hochul (D) 50%
• Jane Corwin (R) 32%
• Jack Davis (TP) 11%
• Ian Murphy (G) 1%
• Undecided 7%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Kathy Hochul 55% / 38% {+17%}
• Barack Obama 48% / 48% {0%}
• Jane Corwin 43% / 49% {-6%}
• Ian Murphy 7% / 24% {-17%}
• Jack Davis 28% / 64% {-36%}

Among Republicans

• Jane Corwin 67% / 27% {+40%}
• Ian Murphy 3% / 25% {-22%}
• Kathy Hochul 30% / 61% {-31%}
• Jack Davis 29% / 65% {-36%}
• Barack Obama 18% / 79% {-61%}

Among Democrats

• Kathy Hochul 83% / 13% {+70%}
• Barack Obama 81% / 17% {+64%}
• Ian Murphy 10% / 25% {-15%}
• Jack Davis 23% / 68% {-45%}
• Jane Corwin 17% / 75% {-58%}

Among Independents

• Kathy Hochul 57% / 36% {+21%}
• Barack Obama 56% / 40% {+16%}
• Ian Murphy 6% / 20% {-14%}
• Jane Corwin 37% / 53% {-16%}
• Jack Davis 33% / 58% {-25%}

Regardless of which candidate you plan on supporting, which of the candidates do you think is most likely to win the special election?

• Jane Corwin (R) 41%
• Kathy Hochul (D) 41%
• Jack Davis (TP) 5%
• Ian Murphy (G) 1%
• Don't know 11%

Among Republicans

• Jane Corwin (R) 61%
• Kathy Hochul (D) 19%
• Jack Davis (TP) 5%
• Ian Murphy (G) 0%
• Don't know 15%

Among Democrats

• Kathy Hochul (D) 66%
• Jane Corwin (R) 20%
• Jack Davis (TP) 4%
• Ian Murphy (G) 2%
• Don't know 7%

Among Independents

• Jane Corwin (R) 43%
• Kathy Hochul (D) 41%
• Jack Davis (TP) 7%
• Ian Murphy (G) 0%
• Don't know 9%

Among Corwin Supporters

• Jane Corwin (R) 79%
• Kathy Hochul (D) 12%
• Jack Davis (TP) 2%
• Ian Murphy (G) 0%
• Don't know 8%

Among Hochul Supporters

• Kathy Hochul (D) 73%
• Jane Corwin (R) 16%
• Jack Davis (TP) 2%
• Ian Murphy (G) 1%
• Don't know 9%

Survey of 639 likely voters in New York's 26th Congressional District was conducted May 18-20, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 3.9 percentage points. Party ID breakdown: 41% Republican; 35% Democrat; 21% Independent/Other.

Poll Watch: PPP/Daily Kos/SEIU (D) NY-26 Special Election Survey

PPP/Daily Kos/SEIU (D) New York 26th Congressional District Special Election Survey

The candidates in the special election for Congress are Republican Jane Corwin, Tea Party candidate Jack Davis, Democrat Kathy Hochul, and Green Party candidate Ian Murphy. If the election was today, who would you vote for?

• Kathy Hochul (D) 35%
• Jane Corwin (R) 31%
• Jack Davis (TP) 24%
• Ian Murphy (G) 2%
• Undecided 8%

Among Republicans

• Jane Corwin (R) 55%
• Jack Davis (TP) 24%
• Kathy Hochul (D) 10%
• Ian Murphy (G) 2%
• Undecided 9%

Among Democrats

• Kathy Hochul (D) 67%
• Jack Davis (TP) 19%
• Jane Corwin (R) 7%
• Ian Murphy (G) 2%
• Undecided 4%

Among Independents

• Kathy Hochul (D) 37%
• Jack Davis (TP) 31%
• Jane Corwin (R) 20%
• Ian Murphy (G) 3%
• Undecided 9%

Among Tea Party Members

• Jane Corwin (R) 47%
• Jack Davis (TP) 37%
• Kathy Hochul (D) 7%
• Ian Murphy (G) 3%
• Undecided 6%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Kathy Hochul 46% / 40% {+6%}
• Jack Davis 43% / 43% {0%}
• Jane Corwin 39% / 42% {-3%}
• Ian Murphy 10% / 35% {-25%}

Do you approve or disapprove of President Barack Obama’s job performance?

• Approve 40%
• Disapprove 53%

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Congressional Republicans are doing?

• Approve 31%
• Disapprove 57%

Would you like the new Congressman from our district to caucus with the Democrats or the Republicans in Congress?

• Republicans 44%
• Democrats 37%

Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Andrew Cuomo’s job performance?

• Approve 69%
• Disapprove 16%

Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Chuck Schumer’s job performance?

• Approve 54%
• Disapprove 38%

Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Kirsten Gillibrand’s job performance?

• Approve 44%
• Disapprove 37%

Do you consider yourself to be a member of the Tea Party?

• Yes 19%
• No 71%

Survey of 1,048 likely voters in New York's 26th Congressional District was conducted May 5-8, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 3.0 percentage points. Party ID breakdown: 43% Republican; 32% Democrat; 25% Independent/Other. Political ideology: 44% Conservative; 41% Moderate; 16% Liberal.

Inside the numbers:

-Congressional Republicans are extremely unpopular. They have a 31% approval rating in this district to 57% disapproving. That makes them a whole lot more unpopular than Barack Obama, who has a 40/53 approval spread. Democrats are more unhappy (82%) with the new House majority than GOP voters (only 51% approval) are pleased with it and independents split against the Republicans by a 23/64 margin as well. 

-The dominance the GOP showed with independents last year is over. Hochul is winning the independent vote with 37% to 31% for Davis and 20% for Corwin. A more significant finding though is that 39% of independent voters want their new representative to caucus with the Democrats in Washington to 36% who want the winner to side with the Republicans. That suggests Hochul might be winning even in a two way race with independents and after a year where independents nationally sided with the GOP by a 19 point margin on the national House ballot that's very meaningful. 

-There no longer appears to be an enthusiasm gap. John McCain won this district by 6 points in 2008 and we found that likely voters for the special election reported voting for McCain by a 6 point margin as well. That's a big contrast to last year when we frequently found those turning out to vote were 5-10 points more Republican leaning than the 2008 electorate. In 2010 GOP voters were fired up while Democrats remained relatively complacent. The Boehner Speakership has quickly shaken the cobwebs out of Democratic voters.