Poll Watch: Siena College NY-26 Special Election Survey

Siena College New York 26th Congressional District Special Election Survey

• Kathy Hochul (D) 42%
• Jane Corwin (R) 38%
• Jack Davis (TP) 12%
• Ian Murphy (G) 1%
• Don't know 7%

Among Republicans

• Jane Corwin (R) 66%
• Jack Davis (TP) 13%
• Kathy Hochul (D) 12%
• Ian Murphy (G) 1%
• Don't know 8%

Among Democrats

• Kathy Hochul (D) 76%
• Jack Davis (TP) 10%
• Jane Corwin (R) 8%
• Ian Murphy (G) 2%
• Undecided 4%

Among Independents

• Kathy Hochul (D) 44%
• Jane Corwin (R) 36%
• Jack Davis (TP) 16%
• Ian Murphy (G) 1%
• Undecided 2%

Among Men

• Jane Corwin (R) 45%
• Kathy Hochul (D) 33%
• Jack Davis (TP) 14%
• Ian Murphy (G) 2%
• Don't know 6%

Among Women

• Kathy Hochul (D) 50%
• Jane Corwin (R) 32%
• Jack Davis (TP) 11%
• Ian Murphy (G) 1%
• Undecided 7%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Kathy Hochul 55% / 38% {+17%}
• Barack Obama 48% / 48% {0%}
• Jane Corwin 43% / 49% {-6%}
• Ian Murphy 7% / 24% {-17%}
• Jack Davis 28% / 64% {-36%}

Among Republicans

• Jane Corwin 67% / 27% {+40%}
• Ian Murphy 3% / 25% {-22%}
• Kathy Hochul 30% / 61% {-31%}
• Jack Davis 29% / 65% {-36%}
• Barack Obama 18% / 79% {-61%}

Among Democrats

• Kathy Hochul 83% / 13% {+70%}
• Barack Obama 81% / 17% {+64%}
• Ian Murphy 10% / 25% {-15%}
• Jack Davis 23% / 68% {-45%}
• Jane Corwin 17% / 75% {-58%}

Among Independents

• Kathy Hochul 57% / 36% {+21%}
• Barack Obama 56% / 40% {+16%}
• Ian Murphy 6% / 20% {-14%}
• Jane Corwin 37% / 53% {-16%}
• Jack Davis 33% / 58% {-25%}

Regardless of which candidate you plan on supporting, which of the candidates do you think is most likely to win the special election?

• Jane Corwin (R) 41%
• Kathy Hochul (D) 41%
• Jack Davis (TP) 5%
• Ian Murphy (G) 1%
• Don't know 11%

Among Republicans

• Jane Corwin (R) 61%
• Kathy Hochul (D) 19%
• Jack Davis (TP) 5%
• Ian Murphy (G) 0%
• Don't know 15%

Among Democrats

• Kathy Hochul (D) 66%
• Jane Corwin (R) 20%
• Jack Davis (TP) 4%
• Ian Murphy (G) 2%
• Don't know 7%

Among Independents

• Jane Corwin (R) 43%
• Kathy Hochul (D) 41%
• Jack Davis (TP) 7%
• Ian Murphy (G) 0%
• Don't know 9%

Among Corwin Supporters

• Jane Corwin (R) 79%
• Kathy Hochul (D) 12%
• Jack Davis (TP) 2%
• Ian Murphy (G) 0%
• Don't know 8%

Among Hochul Supporters

• Kathy Hochul (D) 73%
• Jane Corwin (R) 16%
• Jack Davis (TP) 2%
• Ian Murphy (G) 1%
• Don't know 9%

Survey of 639 likely voters in New York's 26th Congressional District was conducted May 18-20, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 3.9 percentage points. Party ID breakdown: 41% Republican; 35% Democrat; 21% Independent/Other.