Poll Watch: Politico/GWU Battleground 2012 Survey

Politico/GWU Battleground 2012 Survey

• Barack Obama 52%
• Mitt Romney 40%

• Barack Obama 52%
• Tim Pawlenty 38%

How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President? Do you approve or disapprove of the job he is doing?

• Strongly approve 34% (35%)
• Approve 18% (11%)
• Disapprove 10% (6%)
• Strongly disapprove 34% (45%)

Whether you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President, what is your impression of Barack Obama as a person? Do you approve or disapprove of him?

• Strongly approve 48% (47%)
• Somewhat approve 24% (18%)
• Somewhat disapprove 4% (6%)
• Strongly disapprove 15% (19%)

I am going to read you several issues. For each one, please tell me if you approve or disapprove of the job that President Obama is doing on this issue.

The economy and jobs

• Strongly approve 17%
• Somewhat approve 25%
• Somewhat disapprove 16%
• Strongly disapprove 41%

Foreign policy

• Strongly approve 30%
• Somewhat approve 25%
• Somewhat disapprove 17%
• Strongly disapprove 23%

Terrorism

• Strongly approve 47%
• Somewhat approve 28%
• Somewhat disapprove 9%
• Strongly disapprove 13%

Dealing with Congress

• Strongly approve 19%
• Somewhat approve 31%
• Somewhat disapprove 21%
• Strongly disapprove 24%

The federal budget and spending

• Strongly approve 14%
• Somewhat approve 24%
• Somewhat disapprove 12%
• Strongly disapprove 48%

Does the death of Osama Bin Laden make you more likely or less likely to vote for Barack Obama in 2012? Or will it make no difference in your vote?

• More likely/strongly 8%
• More likely/somewhat 4%
• Less likely/somewhat 0%
• Less likely/strongly 3%
• No difference 84%

Which of the following statements best describes your view on the impact that the death of Osama Bin Laden will have on terrorism worldwide: Terrorism will be significantly diminished worldwide; Terrorism will be diminished only in the United States; There will be no impact on terrorism; OR There will be an increase in terrorism.

• Terrorism diminished worldwide 12% 
• Terrorism diminished in the US 6% 
• No impact on terrorism 40% 
• Increase in terrorism 33%

Who do you think deserves more credit for the death of Osama Bin Laden? Would you say it is President George W. Bush, President Barack Obama, OR both equally?

• President Barack Obama 39%
• President George W. Bush 12%
• Both equally 41%

As you may know, the federal government has a limit on how much debt it can incur. The Treasury Secretary estimates that this limit will be reached in August. Exceeding this limit requires a vote of approval from Congress. If Congress does not approve an increase in this limit, the US could default on its debts and be unable to pay its creditors.

Which of the following best describes the implications you believe will occur if Congress does NOT vote to raise the debt limit: It will be disastrous to the U.S. economy, OR It will not have a serious impact on the U.S. economy.

• Disastrous 56%
• Not a serious impact 32%

Now, thinking about the health care reform law that was passed last year...Do you favor or oppose repealing and replacing this national health care reform law?

• Strongly favor 37%
• Somewhat favor 12%
• Somewhat oppose 12%
• Strongly oppose 30%

Do you think this national health care reform law: Went too far; Did not go far enough; OR Was about right?

• Went too far 46%
• Didn't go far enough 26%
• About right 21%

As you may know, Obama has announced that he is running for reelection in 2012. Would you say you will definitely vote for him, you will consider voting for him, or you definitely will not vote for him?

• Definitely vote for Obama 30%
• Consider voting for Obama 29%
• Definitely will not vote for Obama 38%

Donald Trump has indicated that he is considering running for President. If he does run for President, do you believe that he has any chance of being elected President?

• Yes 26%
• No 71%

Do you consider yourself a part of or do you identify with the Tea Party movement?

• Yes/Strongly 15%
• Yes 9%
• No 22%
• No/Strongly 49%

Survey of 1,000 likely voters was conducted May 8-12, 2011 by The Tarrance Group (R) and Lake Research Partners (D). The margin of error is +/- 3.1 percentage points. Party ID breakdown: 37% (35%) Democrat; 30% (35%) Republican; 31% (29%) Independent. Political ideology: Very conservative 20% (25%); Somewhat conservative 37% (38%); Somewhat liberal 26% (24%); Very liberal 11% (7%). Click here to view crosstabs.  Results from the poll conducted September 19-22, 2010 are in parentheses.

• Republican analysis: Voter concerns remain strong - By Ed Goeas
• Democratic analysis: GOP's 2010 win short-lived - By Celinda Lake & Daniel Gotoff & Matt Price