New York Times/Siena College 2024 Presidential Election Poll

 New York Times/Siena College 2024 Presidential Election Poll

Likely Voters

• Donald Trump 49% [48%] (47%) {48%} [45%] (43%)
• Joe Biden 43% [44%] (46%) {44%} [47%] (43%)

Democrat

• Joe Biden 91% [94%] (90%) {90%} [91%] (83%)
  
• Donald Trump 5% [3%] (8%) {7%} [5%] (7%)
  

Republican

• Donald Trump 95% [94%] (91%) {91%} [90%] (88%)
  
• Joe Biden 3% [4%] (5%) {6%} [6%] (5%)
  

Independent

• Donald Trump 45% [47%] (47%) {41%} [38%] (37%)
• Joe Biden 42% [40%] (44%) {45%} [50%] (42%)

Men

• Donald Trump 57% [52%] (57%) {49%} [49%] (50%)
• Joe Biden 34% [40%] (37%) {42%} [42%] (36%)

Women

• Joe Biden 51% [48%] (54%) {46%} [51%] (49%)
• Donald Trump 43% [43%] (38%) {47%} [42%] (37%)

White with B.A.+

• Joe Biden 54% [51%] (55%) {56%} [60%] (51%)
• Donald Trump 40% [44%] (39%) {40%} [35%] (36%)

White without B.A.

• Donald Trump 67% [62%] (63%) {61%} [65%] (59%)
• Joe Biden 28% [30%] (31%) {30%} [29%] (30%)

Black

• Joe Biden 79% [65%] (76%) {71%} [82%] (71%)
  
• Donald Trump 14% [26%] (16%) {20%} [13%] (12%)

Hispanic

• Joe Biden 47% [52%] (52%) {43%} [47%] (41%)
  
• Donald Trump 46% [38%] (39%) {45%} [35%] (38%)

Age 18-29

• Joe Biden 48% [54%] (47%) {54%} [47%] (47%)
  
• Donald Trump 45% [35%] (45%) {41%} [44%] (37%)

Age 30-44

• Donald Trump 49% [45%] (44%) {48%} [42%] (42%)
  
• Joe Biden 43% [47%] (46%) {43%} [53%] (39%)

Age 45-64

• Donald Trump 55% [56%] (52%) {55%} [51%] (48%)
  
• Joe Biden 37% [37%] (44%) {37%} [39%] (39%)

Age 65+

• Joe Biden 48% [48%] (52%) {51%} [52%] (48%)
  
• Donald Trump 45% [45%] (43%) {42%} [41%] (43%)

Survey of 1,532 likely voters was conducted June 28 - July 2, 2024. The margin of error is +/- 2.9 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted June 20-25, 2024 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted April 7-11, 2024 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted February 25-28, 2024 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted December 10-14, 2023 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted July 23-27, 2023 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: New York Times/Siena College Wisconsin 2020 Presidential Survey

New York Times/Siena College Wisconsin 2020 Presidential Poll

Likely Voters

• Joe Biden 52% {51%} [48%] (49%)
  
• Donald Trump 41% {41%} [43%] (38%)
  

Democrat

• Joe Biden 97% {97%} [94%] (96%)
  
• Donald Trump 2% {2%} [3%] (1%)
  

Republican

• Donald Trump 94% {91%} [90%] (86%)
  
• Joe Biden 4% {6%} [7%] (6%)
  

Independent

• Joe Biden 59% {52%} [49%] (43%)
  
• Donald Trump 29% {34%} [35%] (36%)
  

Men

• Joe Biden 47% {50%} [44%] (43%)
  
• Donald Trump 45% {43%} [46%] (43%)
  

Women

• Joe Biden 56% {58%} [52%] (56%)
  
• Donald Trump 37% {34%} [39%] (33%)
  

Whites with BA+

• Joe Biden 62% {62%} [60%]
  
• Donald Trump 34% {30%} [35%]
  

Whites without BA+

• Donald Trump 47% {50%} [50%]
  
• Joe Biden 45% {44%} [39%]
  

Survey of 1,253 likely voters was conducted October 26-30, 2020. The margin of error is +/- 3.2 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted October 8-11, 2020 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 8-10, 2020 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted June 8-15, 2020 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: New York Times/Siena College Pennsylvania 2020 Presidential Survey

New York Times/Siena College Pennsylvania 2020 Presidential Poll

Likely Voters

• Joe Biden 49% {49%} [49%] (48%)
  
• Donald Trump 43% {42%} [40%] (41%)
  

Democrat

• Joe Biden 90% {91%} [92%] (93%)
  
• Donald Trump 6% {5%} [5%] (4%)
  

Republican

• Donald Trump 89% {84%} [85%] (84%)
  
• Joe Biden 8% {11%} [10%] (11%)
  

Independent

• Joe Biden 48% {47%} [44%] (51%)
  
• Donald Trump 36% {34%} [34%] (33%)
  

Men

• Donald Trump 47% {46%} [49%] (45%)
  
• Joe Biden 44% {44%} [41%] (42%)
  

Women

• Joe Biden 54% {54%} [58%] (54%)
  
• Donald Trump 40% {39%} [32%] (37%)
  

Whites with BA+

• Joe Biden 58% {60%} [59%]
  
• Donald Trump 36% {31%} [33%]
  

Whites without BA+

• Donald Trump 56% {58%} [52%]
  
• Joe Biden 39% {34%} [39%]
  

Survey of 1,862 likely voters was conducted October 26-31, 2020. The margin of error is +/- 2.4 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted September 30 - October 2, 2020 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 25-27, 2020 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted June 8-16, 2020 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: New York Times/Siena College Florida 2020 Presidential Survey

New York Times/Siena College Florida 2020 Presidential Poll

Likely Voters

• Joe Biden 47% [47%] (47%)
  
• Donald Trump 44% [42%] (41%)
  

Democrat

• Joe Biden 91% [93%] (92%)
  
• Donald Trump 4% [3%] (4%)
  

Republican

• Donald Trump 90% [87%] (87%)
  
• Joe Biden 8% [11%] (5%)
  

Independent

• Joe Biden 47% [45%] (48%)
  
• Donald Trump 37% [33%] (30%)
  

Men

• Donald Trump 47% [47%] (47%)
  
• Joe Biden 45% [42%] (41%)
  

Women

• Joe Biden 50% [52%] (52%)
  
• Donald Trump 41% [38%] (37%)
  

Whites with BA+

• Joe Biden 49% [45%]
  
• Donald Trump 45% [42%]
  

Whites without BA+

• Donald Trump 59% [60%]
  
• Joe Biden 35% [33%]
  

Hispanic

• Joe Biden 55% [58%] (52%)
  
• Donald Trump 33% [34%] (29%)
  

Black

• Joe Biden 78% [75%] (85%)
  
• Donald Trump 11% [5%] (5%)
  

Survey of 1,451 likely voters was conducted October 27-31, 2020. The margin of error is +/- 3.2 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted September 30 - October 1, 2020 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted June 8-18, 2020 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: New York Times/Siena College Arizona 2020 Presidential Survey

New York Times/Siena College Arizona 2020 Presidential Poll

Likely Voters

• Joe Biden 49% {49%} [49%] (48%)
  
• Donald Trump 43% {41%} [40%] (41%)
  

Democrat

• Joe Biden 96% {95%} [94%] (93%)
  
• Donald Trump 2% {3%} [3%] (4%)
  

Republican

• Donald Trump 91% {90%} [89%] (84%)
  
• Joe Biden 5% {6%} [8%] (11%)
  

Independent

• Joe Biden 52% {53%} [54%] (51%)
  
• Donald Trump 34% {28%} [23%] (33%)
  

Men

• Donald Trump 49% {46%} [43%] (45%)
  
• Joe Biden 41% {44%} [45%] (42%)
  

Women

• Joe Biden 56% {55%} [54%] (54%)
  
• Donald Trump 38% {37%} [37%] (37%)
  

Whites with BA+

• Joe Biden 54% {46%} [55%]
  
• Donald Trump 39% {45%} [40%]
  

Whites without BA+

• Donald Trump 58% {51%} [50%]
  
• Joe Biden 36% {41%} [39%]
  

Hispanic

• Joe Biden 66% {65%} [57%] (66%)
  
• Donald Trump 26% {27%} [26%] (26%)
  

Survey of 1,252 likely voters was conducted October 26-30, 2020. The margin of error is +/- 3.0 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted October 1-3, 2020 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 10-15, 2020 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted June 8-16, 2020 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: New York Times/Siena College Iowa 2020 Democratic Caucus Survey

New York Times/Siena College Iowa 2020 Democratic Caucus Poll

• Bernie Sanders 25% (19%)
• Pete Buttigieg 18% (18%)
• Joe Biden 17% (17%)
• Elizabeth Warren 15% (22%)
• Amy Klobuchar 8% (4%)
• Tom Steyer 3% (2%)
• Andrew Yang 3% (3%)
• Michael Bloomberg 1%
• Tulsi Gabbard 1% (2%)
• Michael Bennet 0% (0%)
• John Delaney 0% (1%)
• Deval Patrick 0%

Survey of 584 likely Iowa Democratic caucusgoers was conducted January 20-23, 2020. The margin of error is +/- 4.8 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted October 25-30, 2019 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: New York Times/Siena College Iowa 2020 Democratic Caucus Survey

New York Times/Siena College Iowa 2020 Democratic Caucus Poll

• Elizabeth Warren 22%
• Bernie Sanders 19%
• Pete Buttigieg 18%
• Joe Biden 17%
• Amy Klobuchar 4%
• Andrew Yang 3%
• Kamala Harris 3%
• Cory Booker 2%
• Tulsi Gabbard 2%
• Tom Steyer 2%
• John Delaney 1%
• Beto O'Rourke 1%
• Michael Bennet 0%
• Steve Bullock 0%
• Julián Castro 0%
• Wayne Messam 0%
• Joe Sestak 0%
• Marianne Williamson 0%

.@UpshotNYT/@SienaResearch Iowa Poll:

18-29
Warren 38%
Sanders 29
Buttigieg 12
Yang 7
Klobuchar 4

30-44
Sanders 26%
Warren 24
Buttigieg 18
Harris 8
Yang 5

45-64
Biden 27%
Buttigieg 18
Sanders 17
Warren 16
Klobuchar 5

65+
Biden 31%
Buttigieg 23
Warren 13
Klobuchar 8
Sanders 5

— Aron Goldman (@ArgoJournal) November 1, 2019

.@UpshotNYT/@SienaResearch Iowa Dem Poll

1st and 2nd Choices Combined

Men
Warren 44%
Sanders 39
Buttigieg 29
Biden 23
Klobuchar 10
Yang 10
Delaney 5
Booker 4
Gabbard 3
Harris 3

Women
Warren 48%
Buttigieg 32
Sanders 32
Biden 31
Harris 13
Klobuchar 9
Booker 4
Steyer 3
O'Rourke 3

— Aron Goldman (@ArgoJournal) November 1, 2019

Survey of 439 likely Iowa Democratic caucusgoers was conducted October 25-30, 2019. The margin of error is +/- 4.7 percentage points.

Poll Watch: New York Times Upshot/Siena College North Carolina 2016 Presidential Survey

New York Times Upshot/Siena College North Carolina 2016 Presidential Poll

• Hillary Clinton (D) 45%
• Donald Trump (R) 43%

Including Third-Party Candidate:

• Hillary Clinton (D) 41%
• Donald Trump (R) 41%
• Gary Johnson (L) 11%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Hillary Clinton 43% / 54% {-11}
• Donald Trump 39% / 58% {-19}

Survey of 782 likely voters was conducted September 16-19, 2016. The margin of error is +/- 3.6 percentage points. Click here to view crosstabs.

Poll Watch: New York Times Upshot/Siena College Florida 2016 Presidential Survey

New York Times Upshot/Siena College Florida 2016 Presidential Poll

• Hillary Clinton (D) 43%
• Donald Trump (R) 43%

Including Third-Party Candidates:

• Hillary Clinton (D) 41%
• Donald Trump (R) 40%
• Gary Johnson (L) 9%
• Jill Stein (G) 2%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Hillary Clinton 40% / 53% {-13}
• Donald Trump 39% / 55% {-16}

Survey of 867 likely voters was conducted September 10-14, 2016. The margin of error is +/- 3.3 percentage points.

Poll Watch: Siena College New York 2016 Presidential Survey

Siena College New York 2016 Presidential Poll

• Hillary Clinton (D) 52% [56%] (57%) {57%} [55%]
• Donald Trump (R) 31% [30%] (34%) {32%} [36%]

Survey of 825 registered voters was conducted May 22-26, 2016. The margin of error is +/- 3.9 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted April 24-27, 2016 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted February 28 - March 3, 2016 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted January 31 - February 3, 2016 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 14-17, 2015 are in square brackets.

Poll Watch: Siena College New York 2016 Republican Primary Survey

Siena College New York 2016 GOP Primary Poll

• Donald Trump 50% (45%) {34%} [34%]
• John Kasich 27% (18%) {4%} [4%] 
• Ted Cruz 17% (11%) {16%} [3%] (6%)

Survey of 469 likely Republican primary voters was conducted April 6-11, 2016. The margin of error is +/- 5.0 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted February 28 - March 3, 2016 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted January 31 - February 3, 2016 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 14-17, 2015 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted April 19-23, 2015 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Siena College New York 2016 Presidential Survey

Siena College New York 2016 Presidential Poll

• Hillary Clinton (D) 49%
• John Kasich (R) 42%

• Hillary Clinton (D) 56%
• Marco Rubio (R) 35%

• Hillary Clinton (D) 57% {57%} [55%]
• Donald Trump (R) 34% {32%} [36%]

• Hillary Clinton (D) 58%
• Ted Cruz (R) 33%

Survey of 800 registered voters was conducted February 28 - March 3, 2016. The margin of error is +/- 4.1 percentage points. Party ID: 47% [47%] Democrat; 23% [23%] Republican; 25% [26%] Independent/Other. Results from the poll conducted January 31 - February 3, 2016 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 14-17, 2015 are in square brackets.

Poll Watch: Siena College New York 2016 Republican Primary Survey

Siena College New York 2016 GOP Primary Poll

• Donald Trump 45% {34%} [34%]
• John Kasich 18% {4%} [4%] 
• Marco Rubio 18% {16%} [5%] (9%)  
• Ted Cruz 11% {16%} [3%] (6%)

Survey of 229 registered Republican primary voters was conducted February 28 - March 3, 2016. The margin of error is +/- 6.7 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted January 31 - February 3, 2016 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 14-17, 2015 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted April 19-23, 2015 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Siena College New York 2016 Presidential Survey

Siena College New York 2016 Presidential Poll

• Hillary Clinton (D) 52%
• Ben Carson (R) 40% 

• Hillary Clinton (D) 53% (55%)
• Jeb Bush (R) 36% (32%)

• Hillary Clinton (D) 55%
• Donald Trump (R) 36%

Survey of 817 registered voters was conducted September 14-17, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 4.0 percentage points. Party ID: 47% Democrat; 23% Republican; 26% Independent/Other. Results from the poll conducted April 19-23, 2015 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Siena College New York 2016 Democratic Primary Survey

Siena College New York 2016 Democratic Primary Poll

• Hillary Clinton 45%
• Joe Biden 24%
• Bernie Sanders 23%

Survey of 378 registered Democratic primary voters was conducted September 14-17, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 5 percentage points.

Poll Watch: Siena College New York 2016 Republican Primary Survey

Siena College New York 2016 GOP Primary Poll

• Donald Trump 34%
• Ben Carson 14%
• Jeb Bush 11% (20%)
• Chris Christie 9% (25%)
• Carly Fiorina 8%
• Marco Rubio 5% (9%)  
• John Kasich 4% 
• Ted Cruz 3% (6%)
• George Pataki 3%
• Scott Walker 0% 

Survey of 214 registered Republican primary voters was conducted September 14-17, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 6.7 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted April 19-23, 2015 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Siena College New York 2016 Presidential Survey

Siena College New York 2016 Presidential Poll

• Hillary Clinton (D) 54% {64%} [60%] (56%)
• Chris Christie (R) 34% {28%} [32%] (40%)

• Hillary Clinton (D) 55%
• Jeb Bush (R) 32%

• Hillary Clinton (D) 58% {67%}
• Rand Paul (R) 29% {24%}

• Hillary Clinton (D) 59%
• Marco Rubio (R) 30%

• Hillary Clinton (D) 59%
• Ted Cruz (R) 26%

Survey of 785 registered voters was conducted April 19-23, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 4.0 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted February 22-28, 2014 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 12-16, 2014 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 11-14, 2013 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Siena College New York 2016 Republican Primary Survey

Siena College New York 2016 GOP Primary Poll

• Chris Christie 25%
• Jeb Bush 20%
• Marco Rubio 9%  
• Rand Paul 8%
• Ted Cruz 6%

Survey of 223 registered Republican primary voters was conducted April 19-23, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 6.6 percentage points.

Poll Watch: Siena College New York 2016 Presidential Survey

Siena College New York 2016 Presidential Poll

• Hillary Clinton (D) 64% [60%] (56%)
• Chris Christie (R) 28% [32%] (40%)

• Hillary Clinton (D) 64%
• Paul Ryan (R) 27%

• Hillary Clinton (D) 67%
• Rand Paul (R) 24%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Hillary Clinton 64% [68%] (67%) / 32% [29%] (31%) {+32%}
• Andrew Cuomo 59% [66%] (61%) / 34% [28%] (32%) {+25%}
• Chris Christie 42% [49%] (63%) / 46% [39%] (25%) {-4%} 
• Paul Ryan 27% / 41% {-14%}
• Rand Paul 22% / 41% {-19%}

Survey of 720 registered voters was conducted February 22-28, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 3.7 percentage points. Party ID: 48% [48%] (47%) Democrat; 23% [23%] (23%) Republican; 26% [26%] (26%) Independent/Other. Political views: 44% [45%] (42%) Moderate; 28% [26%] (25%) Liberal; 24% [26%] (29%) Conservative. Click here to view crosstabs. Results from the poll conducted January 12-16, 2014 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 11-14, 2013 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Siena College New York 2016 Presidential Survey

Siena College New York 2016 Presidential Poll

• Hillary Clinton (D) 60% (56%)
• Chris Christie (R) 32% (40%)

• Andrew Cuomo (D) 55% (42%)
• Chris Christie (R) 35% (47%)

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Hillary Clinton 68% (67%) / 29% (31%) {+39%}
• Andrew Cuomo 66% (61%) / 28% (32%) {+38%}
• Chris Christie 49% (63%) / 39% (25%) {+10%}

Survey of 808 registered voters was conducted January 12-16, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 3.4 percentage points. Party ID: 48% (47%) Democrat; 23% (23%) Republican; 26% (26%) Independent/Other. Political views: 45% (42%) Moderate; 26% (29%) Conservative; 26% (25%) Liberal. Results from the poll conducted November 11-14, 2013 are in parentheses.