Poll Watch: PPP/Daily Kos/SEIU (D) NY-26 Special Election Survey

PPP/Daily Kos/SEIU (D) New York 26th Congressional District Special Election Survey

The candidates in the special election for Congress are Republican Jane Corwin, Tea Party candidate Jack Davis, Democrat Kathy Hochul, and Green Party candidate Ian Murphy. If the election was today, who would you vote for?

• Kathy Hochul (D) 35%
• Jane Corwin (R) 31%
• Jack Davis (TP) 24%
• Ian Murphy (G) 2%
• Undecided 8%

Among Republicans

• Jane Corwin (R) 55%
• Jack Davis (TP) 24%
• Kathy Hochul (D) 10%
• Ian Murphy (G) 2%
• Undecided 9%

Among Democrats

• Kathy Hochul (D) 67%
• Jack Davis (TP) 19%
• Jane Corwin (R) 7%
• Ian Murphy (G) 2%
• Undecided 4%

Among Independents

• Kathy Hochul (D) 37%
• Jack Davis (TP) 31%
• Jane Corwin (R) 20%
• Ian Murphy (G) 3%
• Undecided 9%

Among Tea Party Members

• Jane Corwin (R) 47%
• Jack Davis (TP) 37%
• Kathy Hochul (D) 7%
• Ian Murphy (G) 3%
• Undecided 6%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Kathy Hochul 46% / 40% {+6%}
• Jack Davis 43% / 43% {0%}
• Jane Corwin 39% / 42% {-3%}
• Ian Murphy 10% / 35% {-25%}

Do you approve or disapprove of President Barack Obama’s job performance?

• Approve 40%
• Disapprove 53%

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Congressional Republicans are doing?

• Approve 31%
• Disapprove 57%

Would you like the new Congressman from our district to caucus with the Democrats or the Republicans in Congress?

• Republicans 44%
• Democrats 37%

Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Andrew Cuomo’s job performance?

• Approve 69%
• Disapprove 16%

Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Chuck Schumer’s job performance?

• Approve 54%
• Disapprove 38%

Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Kirsten Gillibrand’s job performance?

• Approve 44%
• Disapprove 37%

Do you consider yourself to be a member of the Tea Party?

• Yes 19%
• No 71%

Survey of 1,048 likely voters in New York's 26th Congressional District was conducted May 5-8, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 3.0 percentage points. Party ID breakdown: 43% Republican; 32% Democrat; 25% Independent/Other. Political ideology: 44% Conservative; 41% Moderate; 16% Liberal.

Inside the numbers:

-Congressional Republicans are extremely unpopular. They have a 31% approval rating in this district to 57% disapproving. That makes them a whole lot more unpopular than Barack Obama, who has a 40/53 approval spread. Democrats are more unhappy (82%) with the new House majority than GOP voters (only 51% approval) are pleased with it and independents split against the Republicans by a 23/64 margin as well. 

-The dominance the GOP showed with independents last year is over. Hochul is winning the independent vote with 37% to 31% for Davis and 20% for Corwin. A more significant finding though is that 39% of independent voters want their new representative to caucus with the Democrats in Washington to 36% who want the winner to side with the Republicans. That suggests Hochul might be winning even in a two way race with independents and after a year where independents nationally sided with the GOP by a 19 point margin on the national House ballot that's very meaningful. 

-There no longer appears to be an enthusiasm gap. John McCain won this district by 6 points in 2008 and we found that likely voters for the special election reported voting for McCain by a 6 point margin as well. That's a big contrast to last year when we frequently found those turning out to vote were 5-10 points more Republican leaning than the 2008 electorate. In 2010 GOP voters were fired up while Democrats remained relatively complacent. The Boehner Speakership has quickly shaken the cobwebs out of Democratic voters.