Poll Watch: CBS News/New York Times/YouGov Virginia 2014 Senatorial Survey

CBS News/New York Times/YouGov Virginia 2014 Senate Poll

• Mark Warner (D) 49% {51%} [51%] (53%)
• Ed Gillespie (R) 39% {39%} [39%] (43%)
• Robert Sarvis (L) 1% {1%}
• Not sure 11% {9%} [9%]

Survey of 1,605 likely voters was conducted October 16-23, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted September 20 - October 1, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted August 18 - September 2, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted July 5-24, 2014 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: CBS News/New York Times/YouGov Virginia 2014 Senatorial Survey

CBS News/New York Times/YouGov Virginia 2014 Senate Poll

• Mark Warner (D) 51% [51%] (53%)
• Ed Gillespie (R) 39% [39%] (43%)
• Robert Sarvis (L) 1%
• Not sure 9% [9%]

Survey of 1,656 likely voters was conducted September 20 - October 1, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted August 18 - September 2, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted July 5-24, 2014 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Quinnipiac Virginia 2014 Senatorial Survey

Quinnipiac Virginia 2014 Senate Poll

• Mark Warner (D) 48% (46%)
• Ed Gillespie (R) 39% (31%)
• Robert Sarvis (L) 6% (6%)

Among Independents

• Ed Gillespie (R) 43% (30%)
  
• Mark Warner (D) 41% (39%)
• Robert Sarvis (L) 9% (11%)

Among Men

• Mark Warner (D) 46% (41%)
• Ed Gillespie (R) 41% (37%)
• Robert Sarvis (L) 9% (8%)

Among Women

• Mark Warner (D) 50% (50%)
• Ed Gillespie (R) 37% (27%)
• Robert Sarvis (L) 3% (6%)

Recalculated match-up, asking Sarvis voters: Who is your second choice?

• Mark Warner (D) 50%
• Ed Gillespie (R) 41%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Mark Warner 52% (49%) / 34% (30%) {+18%}
• Ed Gillespie 34% (20%) / 26% (14%) {+8%}
• Robert Sarvis 10% (8%) / 11% (11%) {-1%}

Survey of 1,010 likely voters was conducted September 17-22, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 3.1 percentage points.  Party ID: 30% (33%) Democrat; 28% (24%) Republican; 34% (35%) Independent; 9% (8%) Other/Don't know. Results from the poll conducted March 19-24, 2014 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: CBS News/New York Times/YouGov Virginia 2014 Senatorial Survey

CBS News/New York Times/YouGov Virginia 2014 Senate Poll

• Mark Warner (D) 51% (53%)
• Ed Gillespie (R) 39% (43%)
• Other 1%
• Not sure 9%

Survey of 1,635 likely voters was conducted August 18 - September 2, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 3.0 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted July 5-24, 2014 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Rasmussen (R) Virginia 2014 Senatorial Survey

Rasmussen (R) Virginia 2014 Senate Poll

• Mark Warner (D) 53% (51%)
• Ed Gillespie (R) 36% (37%)
• Some other candidate 3% (2%)
• Undecided 9% (9%)

Survey of 750 likely voters was conducted June, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted January 20-21, 2014 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers: 

Ninety percent (90%) of Virginia Democrats support Warner, while 70% of the state's Republicans back Gillespie. The incumbent has a 45% to 34% lead among voters not affiliated with either major party.

Warner remains far better-known to Virginia voters. He is viewed Very Favorably by 34% and Very Unfavorably by 14%. Just two percent (2%) say they have never heard of him. Ten percent (10%) have a Very Favorable opinion of Gillespie, while 11% view him Very Unfavorably. However, 23% still say they have never heard of the Republican candidate, although that’s down from 30% earlier this year.

Voters trust Warner more than Gillespie on all four issues regularly tracked by Rasmussen Reports. The Democrat leads in voter trust when it comes to handling government spending (47% to 29%) and taxes (45% to 31%). Warner holds even larger leads in the areas of government ethics and corruption (45% to 27%) and social issues (50% to 29%). However, 22% to 28% of voters are not sure which candidate they trust more on all four issues.

Poll Watch: Quinnipiac Virginia 2014 Senatorial Survey

Quinnipiac Virginia 2014 Senate Poll

• Mark Warner (D) 46%
• Ed Gillespie (R) 31%
• Robert Sarvis (L) 6%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Mark Warner 49% / 30% {+19%}
• Ed Gillespie 20% / 14% {+6%}
• Robert Sarvis 8% / 11% {-3%}

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Mark Warner is handling his job as United States Senator?

• Approve 55%
• Disapprove 33%

Do you feel that Mark Warner deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected?

• Yes/Deserves 49%
• No/Does not 36%

If President Obama campaigns for Mark Warner in his Senate race, would that make you more likely to vote for Warner, less likely to vote for Warner, or wouldn't it make a difference?

• More likely 15%
• Less likely 33%
• No difference 50%

Survey of 1,288 registered voters was conducted March 19-24, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 2.7 percentage points.  Party ID: 33% Democrat; 24% Republican; 35% Independent; 8% Other/Don't know.

Poll Watch: Rasmussen (R) Virginia 2013 Senatorial Survey

Rasmussen (R) Virginia 2013 Senate Poll

• Mark Warner (D) 51%
• Ed Gillespie (R) 37%
• Some other candidate 2%
• Undecided 9%

Survey of 1,000 likely voters was conducted January 20-21, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points.

Inside the numbers: 

Sixty-one percent (61%) of Virginia voters have a favorable opinion of Warner, including 36% with a very favorable one.

Gillespie, by contrast, is an unknown to 30% of voters in the state. Thirty-seven percent (37%) view him favorably, with only 11% who have a very favorable opinion at this point.

Voters trust Warner more than Gillespie by a 44% to 32% margin when it comes to government spending and by a similar 44% to 34% margin when it comes to taxes. In the area of social issues, the incumbent has a slightly larger 48% to 30% lead in voter trust.

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CNN State of the Union: Interview with Ed Gillespie (Part 2)

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Senior Romney Adviser Ed Gillespie on Fox News Sunday

CNN State of the Union: Interview with Romney Senior Adviser Ed Gillespie

CNN State of the Union: Interview with Romney Senior Adviser Ed Gillespie

Senior Romney Adviser Ed Gillespie on Fox News Sunday

Ed Gillespie on Face the Nation

Sr. Romney Adviser Ed Gillespie on Fox News Sunday

Face the Nation Roundtable: Is GOP Race Taking a Toll on Candidates?

CNN State of the Union: Interview with Anita Dunn and Ed Gillespie (Part 2)

CNN State of the Union: Interview with Anita Dunn and Ed Gillespie (Part 1)

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