Poll Watch: Rasmussen West Virginia Senatorial Special Election Survey

Rasmussen West Virginia Senatorial Special Election Survey

• Joe Manchin (D) 49% (46%) {41%} [44%] (41%) {43%} [47%] (48%) {48%} [51%]
• John Raese (R) 45% (45%) {48%} [46%] (48%) {44%} [42%] (44%) {42%} [35%]
• Other 2% (3%) [4%] (4%) {5%} [2%] (4%) {4%} [5%]
• Not sure 4% (7%) [7%] (8%) {8%} [8%] (5%) {7%} [9%]

With Leaners

• Joe Manchin (D) 50% (49%) {43%} [46%] (44%) {46%} [50%] (50%)
• John Raese (R) 46% (46%) {50%} [49%] (50%) {48%} [43%] (45%)
• Other 1% (2%) [2%] (2%) {2%} [1%] (2%)
• Not sure 3% (5%) [3%] (5%) {4%} [5%] (3%)

Among Voters Certain of Their Vote

• Joe Manchin (D) 52% (51%) {48%} [50%] (48%) {51%} [56%] (52%)
• John Raese (R) 48% (49%) {51%} [50%] (52%) {49%} [44%] (48%)

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Joe Manchin 69% (72%) {65%} [70%] (69%) {70%} [71%] (70%) {73%} [74%] (80%) / 30% (26%) {33%} [28%] (29%) {26%} [27%] (29%) {26%} [24%] (18%) {+39%}
• John Raese 45% (47%) {55%} [48%] (56%) {50%} [53%] (54%) {60%} [49%] / 52% (49%) {43%} [49%] (40%) {41%} [41%] (37%) {31%} [32%] {-7%}

Would it be more accurate to describe Joe Manchin’s views as mainstream or extreme?

• Mainstream 55% {50%}
• Extreme 23% {26%}

Would it be more accurate to describe John Raese’s views as mainstream or extreme?

• Mainstream 37% {40%}
• Extreme 48% {39%}

How would you rate the job Joe Manchin has been doing as Governor?

• Strongly approve 45% (38%) {35%} [39%] (33%) {32%} [36%] (35%) {36%} [38%] (40%)
• Somewhat approve 28% (36%) {34%} [33%] (36%) {37%} [33%] (32%) {34%} [33%] (37%)
• Somewhat disapprove 14% (15%) {16%} [17%] (19%) {16%} [18%] (19%) {18%} [20%] (14%)
• Strongly disapprove 12% (9%) {15%} [10%] (12%) {14%} [12%] (13%) {11%} [8%] (9%)

How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President?

• Strongly approve 21% (22%) {16%} [22%] (18%) {17%} [18%] (22%) {17%} [17%] (18%)
• Somewhat approve 16% (11%) {14%} [15%] (12%) {13%} [16%] (14%) {12%} [15%] (17%)
• Somewhat disapprove 6% (11%) {10%} [9%] (13%) {15%} [12%] (9%) {12%} [12%] (13%)
• Strongly disapprove 55% (55%) {59%} [52%] (56%) {53%} [52%] (53%) {58%} [55%] (51%)

Survey of 750 likely voters was conducted October 31, 2010.  The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points.  Party ID breakdown: (44%) {48%} [45%] (45%) {46%} [45%] Democrat; (37%) {35%} [38%] (38%) {37%} [37%] Republican; (19%) {17%} [17%] (17%) {17%} [17%] Independent/Other.  Results from the poll conducted October 26, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted October 19, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted October 12, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted October 5, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted September 27, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 19, 2010 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 8, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted August 29, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 22, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 8, 2010 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:

Raese is backed by 75% of West Virginia Republicans, while Manchin is supported by 76% of Democrats. Raese has a 14-point advantage among voters not affiliated with either major political party.