Poll Watch: AP/GfK Political Survey (2012 Edition)

AP/GfK Political Survey

Overall, please tell me whether you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president.

• Approve 47%
• Disapprove 51%

Please tell me if you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling each of the following issues. How about…
The economy

• Approve 41%
• Disapprove 58%

Unemployment

• Approve 43%
• Disapprove 56%

Taxes

• Approve 46%
• Disapprove 53%

Federal budget deficit

• Approve 36%
• Disapprove 62%

Health care

• Approve 48%
• Disapprove 51%

Education

• Approve 59%
• Disapprove 38%

Immigration

• Approve 43%
• Disapprove 55%

Terrorism

• Approve 57%
• Disapprove 41%

The situation in Afghanistan

• Approve 48%
• Disapprove 50%

The situation in Iraq

• Approve 54%
• Disapprove 45%

Relationships with other countries

• Approve 58%
• Disapprove 41%

The environment

• Approve 58%
• Disapprove 39%

Energy

• Approve 56%
• Disapprove 40%

Gas prices

• Approve 43%
• Disapprove 52%

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of...

Barack Obama

• Very favorable 33%
• Somewhat favorable 22%
• Somewhat unfavorable 14%
• Very unfavorable 30%

Sarah Palin

• Very favorable 18%
• Somewhat favorable 28%
• Somewhat unfavorable 15%
• Very unfavorable 34%

Mitt Romney

• Very favorable 12%
• Somewhat favorable 34%
• Somewhat unfavorable 20%
• Very unfavorable 11%

Newt Gingrich

• Very favorable 12%
• Somewhat favorable 29%
• Somewhat unfavorable 21%
• Very unfavorable 20%

Tim Pawlenty

• Very favorable 5%
• Somewhat favorable 20%
• Somewhat unfavorable 14%
• Very unfavorable 5%

Haley Barbour

• Very favorable 6%
• Somewhat favorable 16%
• Somewhat unfavorable 14%
• Very unfavorable 6%

Mike Huckabee

• Very favorable 16%
• Somewhat favorable 34%
• Somewhat unfavorable 16%
• Very unfavorable 11%

John Thune

• Very favorable 4%
• Somewhat favorable 16%
• Somewhat unfavorable 11%
• Very unfavorable 5%

Mitch Daniels

• Very favorable 3%
• Somewhat favorable 18%
• Somewhat unfavorable 13%
• Very unfavorable 4%

Michelle Obama

• Very favorable 35%
• Somewhat favorable 33%
• Somewhat unfavorable 15%
• Very unfavorable 12%

Hillary Clinton

• Very favorable 30%
• Somewhat favorable 35%
• Somewhat unfavorable 17%
• Very unfavorable 16%

Bill Clinton

• Very favorable 36%
• Somewhat favorable 30%
• Somewhat unfavorable 16%
• Very unfavorable 17%

Joe Biden

• Very favorable 18%
• Somewhat favorable 29%
• Somewhat unfavorable 21%
• Very unfavorable 21%

George W. Bush

• Very favorable 18%
• Somewhat favorable 28%
• Somewhat unfavorable 19%
• Very unfavorable 34%

Mitch McConnell

• Very favorable 7%
• Somewhat favorable 27%
• Somewhat unfavorable 15%
• Very unfavorable 10%

John Boehner

• Very favorable 9%
• Somewhat favorable 25%
• Somewhat unfavorable 15%
• Very unfavorable 11%

The Democratic Party

• Very favorable 20%
• Somewhat favorable 29%
• Somewhat unfavorable 23%
• Very unfavorable 25%

The Republican Party

• Very favorable 14%
• Somewhat favorable 38%
• Somewhat unfavorable 21%
• Very unfavorable 23%

In general, do you support or oppose the health care reforms that were passed by Congress in March?

• Strongly support 17%
• Somewhat support 20%
• Somewhat oppose 13%
• Strongly oppose 33%

The tax cuts that were passed in 2001 will expire this year if they are not continued. Which of the following best describes what you think Congress should do about the tax cuts?

• Allow the tax cuts to expire for everyone 12%
• Allow the tax cuts for people earning more than $250,000 to expire, but continue them for other people 32%
• Continue the tax cuts for everyone 53%

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of the Tea Party movement?

• Very favorable 14%
• Somewhat favorable 18%
• Somewhat unfavorable 14%
• Very unfavorable 22%

From what you know about the Tea Party movement, would you say you generally agree or disagree on the Tea Party movement’s positions on political issues?

• Strongly agree 16%
• Somewhat agree 19%
• Somewhat disagree 11%
• Strongly disagree 19%

Do you consider yourself a supporter of the Tea Party movement, or are you not a supporter of the Tea Party movement?

• Supporter 30%
• Not a supporter 66%

(Among Democrats/Democrat-leaning Independents) Thinking ahead to 2012, would you like to see Barack Obama face a serious challenge in the 2012 presidential primaries from another Democratic candidate, or not?

• Yes 38%
• No 58%

Survey of 1,000 adults was conducted November 3-8, 2010.  The margin of error is +/- 4.1 percentage points.  Party ID breakdown: 39% Democrat; 38% Republican.  Political ideology: 33% Moderate; 24% Somewhat conservative; 22% Strongly conservative; 11% Somewhat liberal; 8% Strongly liberal.

Inside the numbers:

In terms of winning the 2012 nomination, the question is how Republican-leaning Americans view the contenders. Palin comes out on top. Among adults who identify themselves as Republicans or GOP-leaning independents, 79 percent view her favorably, and 17 percent unfavorably.

These findings worry many Republican officials. The poll suggests Palin might be able to win the nomination. But among independents — they could be the deciding factor in the general election — just 43 percent hold a favorable view of Palin, compared with 61 percent with a positive view of Obama.

Elsewhere among the poll's Republican respondents, 74 percent viewed Huckabee favorably, 10 percent unfavorably. Sixty-four percent viewed Romney favorably, 18 percent unfavorably. For former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, it was 68 percent favorable, 21 percent unfavorable.

Other possible candidates are largely unknown, even among self-identified Republican or GOP-leaning adults. The breakdown:

—Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, 28 percent favorable, 13 percent unfavorable, 59 percent no opinion.

—Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour, 27 percent favorable, 14 percent favorable, 58 percent no opinion.

—Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels, 24 percent favorable, 13 percent unfavorable, 63 percent no opinion.

—South Dakota Sen. John Thune, 20 percent favorable, 10 percent unfavorable and 70 percent no opinion.