Poll Watch: UNH/WMUR Granite State New Hampshire 2012 Presidential Survey

UNH/WMUR New Hampshire 2012 Presidential Survey

Republican Primary

• Mitt Romney 40% [36%] {33%} (41%)
• Rudy Giuliani 10% [10%] {8%} (11%)
• Tim Pawlenty 7% [2%] {4%} (3%)
• Mike Huckabee 7% [12%] {7%} (9%)
• Newt Gingrich 6% [7%] {11%} (5%)
• Sarah Palin 6% [11%] {9%} (12%)
• Ron Paul 5% [3%] {7%} (6%)
• Donald Trump 3%
• Rick Santorum 1% [1%] {2%} (2%)
• Haley Barbour 1% [1%]
• John Thune 0% [0%] {0%} (0%)
• Mitch Daniels 0%
• Gary Johnson 0% [2%] {0%} (0%)

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Mitt Romney 73% [73%] {75%} (72%) / 16% [19%] {16%} (18%) {+57%}
• Rudy Giuliani 59% [67%] {64%} (67%) / 29% [21%] {28%} (23%) {+30%}
• Tim Pawlenty 34% [31%] {32%} (30%) / 9% [9%] {12%} (6%) {+25%}
• Mike Huckabee 50% [58%] {54%} (54%) / 28% [27%] {31%} (27%) {+22%}
• Rick Santorum 30% [24%] {30%} (30%) / 12% [15%] {15%} (11%) {+18%}
• John Thune 11% [11%] {10%} (12%) / 7% [10%] {11%} (7%) {+4%}
• Newt Gingrich 41% [46%] {61%} (53%) / 40% [39%] {32%} (31%) {+1%}
• Ron Paul 36% [30%] {38%} (36%) / 35% [40%] {35%} (39%) {+1%}
• Mitch Daniels 18% / 19% {-1%}
• Haley Barbour 18% [17%] / 19% [19%] {-1%} 
• Gary Johnson 6% [7%] {7%} (12%) / 11% [10%] {10%} (5%) {-5%}
• Sarah Palin 33% [52%] {56%} (51%) / 50% [34%] {35%} (35%) {-17%}
• Donald Trump 21% / 64% {-43%}

General Election

• Mitt Romney 49%
• Barack Obama 41%

• Barack Obama 44%
• Tim Pawlenty 37%

• Barack Obama 57%
• Sarah Palin 34%

Survey of 757 New Hampshire adults, including a subsample of 357 likely Republican primary voters, was conducted January 28 - February 7, 2011.  The margin of error is +/-  3.5 percentage points among all adults; +/- 5.2 percentage points among GOP primary voters.  Results from the poll conducted October 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 18-28, 2010 are in parentheses.  

Inside the numbers:

Seventy-eight percent (78%) of likely Republican primary voters said they are still trying to decide who to vote for, an only 7 percent said they had definitely made up their minds. 

There is no potential Democratic challenger for President Barack Obama, but just 65 percent of likely Democratic primary voters said they plan to vote for Obama, and 27 percent are undecided. The subsample of 259 likely Democratic primary voters has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 6.1 percent.