Poll Watch: CNN/Opinion Research 2012 Republican Nomination Survey

CNN/Opinion Research 2012 Republican Nomination Survey 

• Mike Huckabee 21% (21%) [14%] {24%} (17%)
• Sarah Palin 19% (14%) [18%] {15%} (18%)
• Mitt Romney 18% (20%) [21%] {20%} (22%)
• Newt Gingrich 10% (12%) [15%] {14%} (8%)
• Ron Paul 7% (7%) [10%] {8%} (8%)
• Haley Barbour 3% (3%) [3%] {1%} (1%)
• Mitch Daniels 3%
• Tim Pawlenty 3% (3%) [3%] {2%} (5%)
• Mike Pence 1% (3%) [3%] {2%} (4%)
• Rick Santorum 1% (2%) [2%] {3%} (5%)
• John Thune 1%
• Someone else (vol.) 5% (7%) [6%] {5%} (8%)
• None/No one (vol.) 4% (4%) [0%] {5%} (2%)
• No opinion 2% (6%) [4%] {1%} (3%)

Among Republicans

• Mike Huckabee 24% (21%) [17%]
• Mitt Romney 18% (21%) [20%]
• Sarah Palin 17% (16%) [21%]
• Newt Gingrich 9% (14%) [15%]
• Haley Barbour 6% (3%) [3%]
• Ron Paul 7% (4%) [7%]
• Mitch Daniels 4%
• Tim Pawlenty 4% (3%) [2%]
• John Thune 2%
• Rick Santorum 1% (3%) [3%]
• Mike Pence 1% (2%) [2%] 
• Someone else (vol.) 4% (5%)
• None/No one (vol.) 3% (2%)
• No opinion 1% (6%)

Among Independents

• Sarah Palin 22% (11%) [12%]
• Mitt Romney 19% (19%) [23%]
• Mike Huckabee 18% (20%) [9%]
• Newt Gingrich 13% (9%) [14%]
• Ron Paul 8% (11%) [14%]
• Tim Pawlenty 3% (3%) [5%]
• Mitch Daniels 2%
• Mike Pence 2% (3%) [6%]
• Haley Barbour 1% (2%) [2%]
• Rick Santorum 1% (1%) [2%]
• John Thune 0%
• Someone else (vol.) 5% (10%)
• None/No one (vol.) 4% (7%)
• No opinion 3% (5%)

Among Men

• Mitt Romney 20% (23%) [23%]
• Mike Huckabee 18% (21%) [11%]
• Newt Gingrich 12% (13%) [17%]
• Sarah Palin 12% (12%) [16%]
• Ron Paul 10% (9%) [13%]
• Mitch Daniels 5%
• Tim Pawlenty 5% (4%) [3%]
• Haley Barbour 4% (3%) [4%]
• Mike Pence 2% (4%) [4%]
• John Thune 2%
• Rick Santorum 1% (2%) [2%]

Among Women

• Sarah Palin 26% (17%) [20%]
• Mike Huckabee 24% (20%) [18%]
• Mitt Romney 17% (17%) [19%]
• Newt Gingrich 9% (9%) [13%]
• Ron Paul 5% (4%) [6%]
• Haley Barbour 3% (3%) [1%]
• Tim Pawlenty 2% (2%) [4%]
• Mitch Daniels 1%
• Mike Pence 1% (1%) [3%]
• Rick Santorum 1% (3%) [2%]
• John Thune 0%

Attended College

• Mike Huckabee 21% (18%) [15%]
• Mitt Romney 20% (25%) [28%]
• Sarah Palin 13% (9%) [13%]
• Newt Gingrich 12% (14%) [16%]
• Ron Paul 8% (6%) [9%]
• Mitch Daniels 4%
• Tim Pawlenty 4% (4%) [3%]
• Rick Santorum 2% (3%) [2%]
• Mike Pence 2% (3%) [2%]
• Haley Barbour 2% (2%) [2%]
• John Thune 1%

No College

• Sarah Palin 27% (20%) [24%]
• Mike Huckabee 22% (24%) [13%]
• Mitt Romney 16% (13%) [12%]
• Newt Gingrich 9% (9%) [14%]
• Ron Paul 7% (7%) [10%]
• Haley Barbour 5% (4%) [4%]
• Tim Pawlenty 3% (1%) [4%]
• John Thune 2%
• Mitch Daniels 1%
• Mike Pence 1% (2%) [5%]
• Rick Santorum 0% (2%) [2%]

Income $50K+

• Mike Huckabee 20% (17%) [16%]
• Mitt Romney 19% (31%) [29%]
• Sarah Palin 16% (9%) [12%]
• Newt Gingrich 11% (13%) [12%]
• Ron Paul 10% (6%) [7%]
• Mitch Daniels 4%
• Tim Pawlenty 4% (3%) [4%]
• Mike Pence 2% (4%) [2%]
• Haley Barbour 2% (3%) [4%]
• John Thune 2%
• Rick Santorum 1% (2%) [3%]

Income under $50K

• Sarah Palin 25% (18%) [27%]
• Mike Huckabee 22% (27%) [11%]
• Mitt Romney 17% (7%) [12%]
• Newt Gingrich 10% (9%) [19%]
• Haley Barbour 5% (3%) [2%]
• Ron Paul 4% (8%) [11%]
• Tim Pawlenty 2% (4%) [2%]
• Mitch Daniels 1%
• John Thune 1%
• Mike Pence 1% (2%) [6%]
• Rick Santorum 1% (2%) [2%]

Who would be your second choice?

• Sarah Palin 19%
• Mitt Romney 18%
• Mike Huckabee 14%
• Newt Gingrich 8%
• Ron Paul 8%
• Tim Pawlenty 5%
• Mitch Daniels 4%
• Rick Santorum 3%
• Mike Pence 2%
• Haley Barbour 1%
• John Thune 1%
• Someone else (vol.) 5%
• None/ No one (vol.) 7%
• No opinion 4%

Regardless of which candidates you support, who do you think is most likely to become the Republican nominee for president in 2012?

• Mitt Romney 25%
• Sarah Palin 24%
• Mike Huckabee 13%
• Newt Gingrich 7%
• Haley Barbour 3%
• Ron Paul 3%
• Tim Pawlenty 3%
• Mitch Daniels 2%
• Rick Santorum 1%
• Mike Pence 0%
• John Thune 0%
• Someone else (vol.) 3%
• None/ No one (vol.) 4%
• No opinion 12%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Mike Huckabee 72% / 13% {+59%}
• Mitt Romney 64% / 16% {+48%}
• Sarah Palin 70% / 25% {+45%}
• Newt Gingrich 59% / 23% {+36%}
• Rick Santorum 32% / 7% {+25%}
• Ron Paul 46% / 22% {+24%}
• Haley Barbour 32% / 9% {+23%}
• Tim Pawlenty 31% / 9% {+22%}
• Mike Pence 23% / 4% {+19%}
• Mitch Daniels 23% / 9% {+14%}
• John Thune 16% / 7% {+9%}

If you had to choose, would you rather see the Republican party nominate a presidential candidate who agrees with you on every issue that matters to you but may not be able to beat Barack Obama, or a presidential candidate who can beat Barack Obama but does not agree with you on every issue that matters to you?

• Agrees with you on issues 29%
• Can beat Barack Obama 68%

Survey of 479 Republicans and Republican-leaning Independents, was conducted January 21-23, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted October 27-30, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted August 6-10, 2010 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted April 9-11, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 19-21, 2010 are in parentheses.