Poll Watch: Rasmussen 2012 Republican Nomination Survey

Christie Leads, Trump Loses When GOP Voters Asked Who They’d Definitely Vote For or Against

I’m going to read you a list of people who have been mentioned as potential candidates for the 2012 Republican Presidential Nomination… Thinking in terms of how you might vote in a Republican Primary or Caucus, please let me know if you would definitely vote for that person, probably vote for that person, probably vote against that person, or definitely vote against that person.

Chris Christie

• Definitely vote for 30%
• Probably vote for 22%
• Probably/definitely vote against 22%

Sarah Palin

• Definitely vote for 23%
• Probably vote for 28%
• Probably/definitely vote against 39%

Newt Gingrich

• Definitely vote for 20%
• Probably vote for 29%
• Probably/definitely vote against 39%

Donald Trump

• Definitely vote for 21%
• Probably vote for 21%
• Probably/definitely vote against 48%

Survey of 500 likely GOP primary voters was conducted April 26, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points.

Inside the numbers:

Twenty-six percent (26%) say they would definitely vote for either former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney or ex-Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, and just over 30% more say they would probably vote for either man. 

Minnesota Congresswoman Michelle Bachmann also has 26% definite support, with 24% of likely primary voters saying they would probably vote for her. 

Sarah Palin, the party’s 2008 vice presidential nominee, and Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan who is leading the way on GOP budget-cutting efforts in Congress are tied with 23% of likely primary voters saying they would definitely support them. Twenty-eight percent (28%) and 26% respectively would probably vote for Palin and Ryan. 

The bad news for Palin is that 18% would definitely vote against her and another 21% would probably vote against her. Just 24% would definitely or probably vote against Ryan. 

But Trump’s worse off: While 21% would definitely vote for him, 26% of likely primary voters would definitely vote against the business tycoon and reality TV star. Another 21% would probably vote for Trump, but 22% would probably vote against him. That makes him the most unpopular of the 18 would-be candidates among primary voters. 

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich has the definite support of 20% of primary voters and the probable support of 29%. However, 17% would definitely vote against the one-time Georgia congressman, and 22% would probably vote against him.