Poll Watch: Monmouth University Iowa 2020 Democratic Caucus Survey

Monmouth University Iowa 2020 Democratic Caucus Poll

• Joe Biden 23% (24%) {19%} [28%] (27%)
• Bernie Sanders 21% (18%) {13%} [9%] (16%)
• Pete Buttigieg 16% (17%) {22%} [8%] (9%)
• Elizabeth Warren 15% (15%) {18%} [19%] (7%)
• Amy Klobuchar 10% (8%) {5%} [3%] (4%)
• Tom Steyer 4% (4%) {3%} [3%]
• Andrew Yang 3% (3%) {3%} [2%] (1%)
• Michael Bennet 1% (0%) {0%} [0%] (0%)
• Tulsi Gabbard 1% (2%) {2%} [1%] (0%)
• Deval Patrick 0% (0%)
• John Delaney 0% (0%) {0%} [1%] (1%)
• No one (vol.) 0% (0%) {0%} [0%] (1%)
• Other (vol.) 0% (0%) {0%} [0%] (1%)
• Undecided (vol.) 5% (5%) {8%} [10%] (12%)

Very Liberal

• Bernie Sanders 41% (29%) {22%} [19%]
  
• Elizabeth Warren 23% (25%) {35%} [37%]
• Pete Buttigieg 11% (14%) {15%} [5%]
• Joe Biden 10% (11%) {12%} [7%]
• Amy Klobuchar 5% (5%) {0%} [2%]

Somewhat Liberal

• Bernie Sanders 26% (20%) {19%} [8%]
  
• Pete Buttigieg 19% (22%) {23%} [10%]
• Elizabeth Warren 18% (16%) {20%} [20%]
• Joe Biden 16% (16%) {10%} [31%]
• Amy Klobuchar 10% (5%) {7%} [2%]

Moderate/Conservative

• Joe Biden 33% (35%) {26%} [36%] (35%)
• Pete Buttigieg 17% (15%) {26%} [8%] (5%)
• Bernie Sanders 11% (13%) {7%} [5%] (20%)
• Amy Klobuchar 13% (11%) {7%} [4%] (5%)
• Elizabeth Warren 10% (9%) {10%} [9%] (3%)

Men

• Bernie Sanders 22% (21%) {19%} [12%] (24%)
• Joe Biden 20% (22%) {13%} [27%] (15%)
• Elizabeth Warren 15% (11%) {16%} [16%] (5%)
• Pete Buttigieg 14% (21%) {20%} [8%] (13%)
• Amy Klobuchar 10% (6%) {2%} [2%] (3%)

Women

• Joe Biden 25% (26%) {22%} [29%] (37%)
• Bernie Sanders 21% (15%) {8%} [6%] (11%)
• Pete Buttigieg 17% (14%) {24%} [8%] (6%)
• Elizabeth Warren 15% (17%) {20%} [20%] (9%)
• Amy Klobuchar 11% (9%) {7%} [4%] (5%)

Age 18-49

• Bernie Sanders 41% (26%) {19%} [18%] (18%)
  
• Elizabeth Warren 23% (22%) {24%} [20%] (10%)
• Pete Buttigieg 11% (18%) {19%} [10%] (12%)
• Joe Biden 10% (13%) {12%} [19%] (16%)
• Amy Klobuchar 5% (4%) {1%} [1%] (3%)

Age 50-64

• Joe Biden 31% (22%) {17%} [35%] (23%)
  
• Amy Klobuchar 16% (10%) {12%} [2%] (6%)
• Elizabeth Warren 16% (12%) {17%} [18%] (7%)
• Pete Buttigieg 13% (20%) {24%}[6%] (7%)
• Bernie Sanders 12% (16%) {8%} [5%] (20%)

Age 65+

• Joe Biden 37% (44%) {29%} [33%] (44%)
• Pete Buttigieg 20% (11%) {26%} [6%] (7%)
• Amy Klobuchar 11% (13%) {5%} [7%] (5%)
• Elizabeth Warren 10% (6%) {12%} [17%] (5%)
• Bernie Sanders 9% (8%) {9%} [1%] (13%)

College Degree

• Elizabeth Warren 22% (16%) {21%} [26%] (9%)
• Joe Biden 20% (21%) {15%} [23%] (20%)
• Bernie Sanders 19% (15%) {7%} [5%] (13%)
• Pete Buttigieg 13% (17%) {24%} [10%] (12%)
• Amy Klobuchar 13% (9%) {7%} [3%] (4%)

No College Degree

• Joe Biden 25% (27%) {21%} [32%] (34%)
• Bernie Sanders 23% (19%) {18%} [12%] (19%)
• Pete Buttigieg 19% (17%) {21%} [6%] (6%)
• Elizabeth Warren 10% (13%) {16%} [13%] (5%)
• Amy Klobuchar 8% (8%) {3%} [4%] (5%)

First and Second Choices Combined

• Joe Biden 39% (34%) {29%} [40%] (39%)
• Elizabeth Warren 34% (38%) {35%} [38%] (17%)
• Bernie Sanders 32% (32%) {25%} [17%] (24%)
• Pete Buttigieg 29% (32%) {37%} [17%] (15%)
• Amy Klobuchar 22% (18%) {14%} [5%] (7%)
• Tom Steyer 10% (8%) {6%} [6%]
• Andrew Yang 7% (7%) {4%} [4%] (1%)

If the only viable candidates in your caucus site were the following four people who would you caucus for?

• Joe Biden 29% (28%)
• Bernie Sanders 25% (24%)
• Pete Buttigieg 20% (25%)
• Elizabeth Warren 19% (16%)

Favorable/Unfavorable (Net)

• Elizabeth Warren 71% (73%) {69%} [76%] (67%) / 21% (19%) {23%} [14%] (20%) (+50)
• Pete Buttigieg 68% (71%) {73%} [68%] (45%) / 19% (17%) {10%} [11%] (9%) (+49)
• Joe Biden 68% (66%) {65%} [73%] (78%) / 22% (28%) {26%} [19%] (14%) (+46)
• Amy Klobuchar 63% (63%) {54%} [50%] (51%) / 18% (16%) {18%} [17%] (10%) (+45)
• Andrew Yang 60% (57%) {39%} (15%) / 17% (20%) {24%} (9%) (+43)
• Bernie Sanders 61% (70%) {61%} [58%] (67%) / 32% (22%) {29%} [33%] (26%) (+29)
• Tom Steyer 50% (46%) {33%} [34%] / 28% (32%) {29%} [25%] (+22)

Survey of 544 Iowa voters who are likely to attend the Democratic presidential caucuses was conducted January 23-27, 2020. The margin of error is +/- 4.2 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted January 9-12, 2019 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted November 7-11, 2019 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted August 1-4, 2019 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted April 4-9, 2019 are in parentheses.