Poll Watch: Rasmussen California Senatorial Survey

Rasmussen California Senatorial Survey

• Barbara Boxer (D) 46% [42%] (44%) {45%} [49%] (48%) {45%} [42%] (46%) {46%} [46%] (46%) {49%} [45%]
• Carly Fiorina (R) 41% [47%] (43%) {40%} [42%] (43%) {38%} [38%] (40%) {42%} [43%] (37%) {39%} [41%]
• Other 6% [4%] (5%) {5%} [4%] (5%) {4%} [7%] (4%) {7%} [3%] (5%) {4%} [7%]
• Not sure 8% [8%] (8%) {10%} [5%] (5%) {12%} [13%] (10%) {5%} [8%] (12%) {8%} [7%]

With Leaners

• Barbara Boxer (D) 47% [47%] (49%)
• Carly Fiorina (R) 43% [48%] (44%)
• Other 4% [2%] (3%)
• Not sure 6% [3%] (4%)

Among Voters Certain of Their Vote

• Barbara Boxer (D) 54% [48%] (49%)
• Carly Fiorina (R) 46% [52%] (51%)

Among Men

• Barbara Boxer (D) 46% [46%] (44%)
• Carly Fiorina (R) 46% [52%] (46%)
• Other 4% [2%] (5%)
• Not sure 3% [0%] (5%)

Among Women

• Barbara Boxer (D) 48% [48%] (52%)
• Carly Fiorina (R) 40% [45%] (43%)
• Other 4% [2%] (1%)
• Not sure 8% [5%] (4%)

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Carly Fiorina 47% [55%] (46%) {46%} [48%] (44%) {38%} [36%] (44%) {37%} [38%] (40%) {32%} [30%] / 44% [37%] (42%) {42%} [41%] (43%) {39%} [34%] (31%) {40%} [34%] (29%) {35%} [35%] {+3%}
• Barbara Boxer 48% [48%] (46%) {47%} [49%] (43%) {47%} [51%] (48%) {51%} [51%] (51%) {51%} [50%] / 49% [50%] (52%) {46%} [47%] (52%) {49%} [44%] (45%) {46%} [46%] (41%) {42%} [47%] {-1%}

Survey of 750 likely voters was conducted September 20, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points.  Party ID breakdown: 39% Democrat; 37% Republican; 24% Independent.  Results from the poll conducted September 6, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 24, 2010 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted August 3, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 12, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted June 9, 2010 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted May 12, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 12, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 11, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted February 11, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 14, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 17, 2009 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted September 23, 2009 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted July 22, 2009 are in square brackets.

Inside the numbers:

Boxer is favored by 85% of Democrats, while 80% of Republicans support Fiorina. Voters not affiliated with either major party give a 3-point edge to the incumbent.