Poll Watch: PPP (D) 2012 Republican Nomination Survey

PPP (D) 2012 GOP Nomination Survey (The Donald Edition)

• Mike Huckabee 22% [18%] (20%) {24%} [16%] (21%) {23%} [21%] (22%) {25%} [27%] (24%)
• Mitt Romney 16% [17%] (17%) {14%} [18%] (22%) {22%} [19%] (25%) {23%} [33%] (28%)
• Newt Gingrich 15% [14%] (12%) {11%} [19%] (18%) {21%} [23%] (15%) {21%}
• Sarah Palin 12% [16%] (15%) {14%} [21%] (17%) {21%} [17%] (19%) {20%} [23%] (23%)
• Ron Paul 8% [9%] (8%) {7%} [5%] (6%) {4%} [7%] (6%) {8%} (11%)
• Michele Bachmann 6%
• Tim Pawlenty 6% [5%] (4%) {8%} [5%]
• Haley Barbour 3% [1%]

Let’s say Mike Huckabee decides not to run and the candidates for President next year were Michele Bachmann, Haley Barbour, Newt Gingrich, Sarah Palin, Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty, and Mitt Romney. Who would you vote for?

• Mitt Romney 22% [20%]
• Newt Gingrich 20% [18%]
• Sarah Palin 15% [19%]
• Ron Paul 12% [12%]
• Tim Pawlenty 6% [6%]
• Michele Bachmann 5%
• Haley Barbour 3% [4%]

Let’s say Sarah Palin decides not to run and the candidates for President next year were Michele Bachmann, Haley Barbour, Newt Gingrich, Mike Huckabee, Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty, and Mitt Romney. Who would you vote for?

• Mike Huckabee 24% [22%]
• Mitt Romney 19% [18%]
• Newt Gingrich 18% [20%]
• Ron Paul 10% [9%]
• Michele Bachmann 7%
• Tim Pawlenty 6% [7%]
• Haley Barbour 2% [3%]

Let’s say neither Mike Huckabee nor Sarah Palin runs for President and the candidates next year were Michele Bachmann, Haley Barbour, Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty, and Mitt Romney. Who would you vote for?

• Mitt Romney 25% [24%]
• Newt Gingrich 23% [24%]
• Ron Paul 13% [12%]
• Tim Pawlenty 10% [6%]
• Michele Bachmann 8%
• Haley Barbour 4% [5%]

Here’s one last scenario: what if Donald Trump ran for President and the candidates were Michele Bachmann, Newt Gingrich, Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin, Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty, Mitt Romney, and Donald Trump. Who would you vote for?

• Donald Trump 26%
• Mike Huckabee 17%
• Mitt Romney 15%
• Newt Gingrich 11%
• Sarah Palin 8%
• Ron Paul 5%
• Michele Bachmann 4%
• Tim Pawlenty 4%

Would you be willing or unwilling to support a candidate for the Republican Presidential nomination who firmly stated they believed Barack Obama was born in the United States?

• Willing to support candidate who firmly stated Obama was born in U.S. 38%
• Would be unwilling to 23%
• Not sure 39%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Mike Huckabee 61% [56%] (58%) {64%} [63%] (60%) {62%} [64%] (53%) {58%} [55%] (54%) / 18% [22%] (15%) {16%} [17%] (14%) {14%} [11%] (15%) {13%} [13%] (16%) {+43%}
• Sarah Palin 61% [61%] (65%) {65%} [68%] (66%) {76%} [70%] (67%) {69%} [66%] (69%) / 31% [26%] (25%) {26%} [22%] (19%) {17%} [14%] (18%) {21%} [21%] (17%) {+30%}
• Mitt Romney 50% [51%] (55%) {52%} [56%] (57%) {57%} [59%] (57%) {54%} [54%] (58%) / 29% [29%] (25%) {28%} [24%] (21%) {21%} [14%] (14%) {19%} [24%] (17%) {+21%}
• Newt Gingrich 50% [50%] (55%) {58%} [57%] (57%) {65%} [63%] (58%) {57%} / 33% [32%] (26%) {24%} [28%] (25%) {19%} [14%] (18%) {21%} {+17%}

Survey of 400 Republican primary voters was conducted April 7-10, 2011.  The margin of error is +/-4.9 percentage points.  Political ideology: 44% [40%] (41%) Somewhat conservative; 31% [38%] (39%) Very conservative; 17% [19%] (15%) Moderate; 5% [3%] (5%) Somewhat liberal; 2% [1%] (1%) Very liberal.  Results from the poll conducted March 10-13, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 11-13, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted January 14-16, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 19-21, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 10-13, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted August 6-9, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 9-12, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted June 4-7, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted May 7-9, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 9-11, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 12-14, 2010 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:

Only 38% of Republican primary voters say they're willing to support a candidate for President next year who firmly rejects the birther theory and those folks want Mitt Romney to be their nominee for President next year. With the other 62% of Republicans- 23% of whom say they are only willing to vote for a birther and 39% of whom are not sure- Donald Trump is cleaning up. And as a result Trump's ridden the controversy about Barack Obama's place of birth to the highest level of support we've found for anyone in our national GOP polling so far in 2011. 

Among that 23% only willing to vote for a birther, Trump is cleaning up even more, getting 37% to 13% for Huckabee and Palin, and 10% for Romney and Gingrich. He's a lot weaker with the 38% who say they're perfectly happy to vote for someone who's dismissed the birther theory- with them Romney leads at 23%, with Huckabee at 18%, Trump at 17%, Gingrich at 10%, and Palin at only 7%.

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